ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Watching this unfold is just unreal. The power of nature is awe inspiring.
I am so thankful the northeast Caribbean has been spared from a direct hit. It would have been devastating. And I hope Lee stays far away from any land.

Agree 100%. It would have been a disaster of major proportions for the islands and let's hope it stays at open sea.

[Beef Stew]

If we're posting recon guesses:

115 kts, 947 mb on arrival

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm going to say 115kt 945

[RevanTheJedi96]

127 knot flight level, 118 knot smrf and 942mb pressure.

Already at 942 mb?????

[FLpanhandle91]

Right now I'll go 117 kts 947mb.

By the time recon gets there? 125 kts 939mb.

[Teban54]

127 knot flight level, 118 knot smrf and 942mb pressure.

Already at 942 mb?????

I think they're posting their predictions of what recon will find.

[Hurricaneman]

Recon will find 125kts 935 pressure

[SunnyThoughts]

130 kts 928 MB ( by the time recon gets there)

[Beef Stew]

I think tonight is just going to be the recon "appetizer"... before the main course tomorrow when Lee's really bombing into a storm that's in the upper-echelon of Atlantic hurricanes. I do suspect that the winds will begin to catch up a bit more to the structure by the time recon is leaving tonight though.

All speculation, of course.

[SteveM]

How long until recon arrives?

[Hurricaneman]

How long until recon arrives?

Arrives to the storm at around 7pm

[ScottNAtlanta]

Interestingly the recon reported surface pressure out of St Croix is 1008mb...which is a rather low base state, so Lee's pressure could be lower as well relative to background

[Coolcruiseman]

Phenomenal what is being seen from Lee today. Be very interesting to see how the data collected tonight & tomorrow affect the future model projections on tracking.

[wx98]

Going with 115 kt Cat 4 at 21z with a low 950s MSLP

For the record, I was going with the Advisory intensity from NHC. Not a recon guess…

[Hurricaneman]

Recon on the way

[underthwx]

Watching this unfold is just unreal. The power of nature is awe inspiring.
I am so thankful the northeast Caribbean has been spared from a direct hit. It would have been devastating. And I hope Lee stays far away from any land.

Agree 100%. It would have been a disaster of major proportions for the islands and let's hope it stays at open sea.

I second that....

[cheezyWXguy]

If recon finds this at only 115kt I’ll eat my shoe. 130kt seems more likely to me.

[eastcoastFL]

[HurricaneBelle]

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE MAINLAND U.S. BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 51.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

[eastcoastFL]

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE MAINLAND U.S. BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 51.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

Wow, it might be pushing Cat 5 when recon arrives