Texas Winter 2025-2026

[bubba hotep]

This was one of the warmest, if not the warmest, patterns for Christmas period back in 2021 (+13F for Dec yikes).

https://i.imgur.com/bcGzZPZ.gif

GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/c3Ujhqy.png

EPS

https://i.imgur.com/IRrWlps.png

Pains to post it, but hopefully something changes. Maybe January.

The mean is still holding strong, but there is a growing, yet small cluster (grasping at straws here) showing a cold front coming down between the 23rd and 25th.

[Brent]

Well we just had a front here and wow the wind has a bite to it. It's kind of chilly. I was quite surprised

And this isn't even the big one for Sunday where we may stay below freezing all day

But you're telling me Christmas week is a nonstop historic torch

[Ntxw]

This was one of the warmest, if not the warmest, patterns for Christmas period back in 2021 (+13F for Dec yikes).

https://i.imgur.com/bcGzZPZ.gif

GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/c3Ujhqy.png

EPS

https://i.imgur.com/IRrWlps.png

Pains to post it, but hopefully something changes. Maybe January.

The mean is still holding strong, but there is a growing, yet small cluster (grasping at straws here) showing a cold front coming down between the 23rd and 25th.

Yeah I don't think we can get 2021's wall to wall month torch because it's already been cold. And possible front on the 18th-20th before warm SW flow for some days, just stinks it had to be close to Christmas...but we hang on the CFS!

[TomballEd]

More important question to me is about rainfall and at least there is optimism there. If you live east of I-35, anyway.

[Stratton23]

Some subtle hints in the Euro and AIFS today that may lead to a more suppressed SE ridge or further east, but i emphasize subtle lol, but sometimes even the smallest hints can be the ones to watch going forward

[Stratton23]

we have agreement between the GEFS/ AIFS/ EPS of a trend toward - EPO/ neutral AO around christmas, we shall see, im just the messenger!

[Golfisnoteasy75]

we have agreement between the GEFS/ AIFS/ EPS of a trend toward - EPO/ neutral AO around christmas, we shall see, im just the messenger!

That's great news stratton! If the ensembles are showing the epo going negative, then perhaps we got a chance to get cold here. Just keep watching for a trend

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This was one of the warmest, if not the warmest, patterns for Christmas period back in 2021 (+13F for Dec yikes).

https://i.imgur.com/bcGzZPZ.gif

GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/c3Ujhqy.png

EPS

https://i.imgur.com/IRrWlps.png

Pains to post it, but hopefully something changes. Maybe January.

This has been a strong analog for this year.

[Stratton23]

Golfisnoteasy75 right now its just a weak negative signal for the EPO, and neutral AO, but gotta start somewhere, im just trying to find any sort of silver lining i can find, 80 degrees on christmas is a crime against humanity

[txwxwatcher]

AccuWeather currently showing a high of 69 and low of 46 for Metro Houston on Christmas Day. I’d take that.

[Stratton23]

Hey its lower than 70, and lows in the mid 40’s, i can compromise with that lol

[Ntxw]

71F gorgeous day outside right now, if this were September!!! Any other time of year really...

Can't wait for 30s-40s Sunday .

[Stratton23]

seem some potentially interesting changes on this 18z run of the GFS, more west coast ridging, i still got to exercise caution that it will be a torch for christmas, just some small changes in pacific blocking have a huge effect, 18z GFS isnt cold, but definitely not a torch either, however it has a - EPO signature

[txtwister78]

Low 80's Christmas week folks....get ready if you live SC/SE and LRGV regions.

May see a few 80's pop next week also after one brief shot of much cooler weather early next wk.

[Stratton23]

GFS actually has a somewhat decent front on christmas eve now, im not sold on this blow torch pattern yet

[Ntxw]

Rain cooled air, I'll take it! Lets go GFS!

[Stratton23]

Even the newest AIFS is showing some subtle hints of that cold air getting dislodged out of canada near or just after christmas, crazy blocking pattern though!

[Brent]

Well there is hope at least

Some interesting January analogs too at least up here even if Christmas is still warm(it was in 2021 as mentioned earlier). Biggest snowstorm I've seen here was to start February in 22(it almost snowed for 48 hours straight if I remember right) and there were more light events after that

[txtwister78]

GFS actually has a somewhat decent front on christmas eve now, im not sold on this blow torch pattern yet

Problem with the GFS op is GEFS says otherwise and until that changes (all ensembles remain locked in) along with the different signals for cold not showing up yet I'm afraid cold lovers are going to be disappointed.

But it's Texas and shorts around Christmas are more common than jackets.

But I'll say this my friend we've had some warm December's before that have led to very cold January's and even February's. I've seen a few years mentioned already (85) and of course 21. Long way to go.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 oh i know, im just kind of clinging on to false hope that we get a front in here on christmas lol, grasping at straws to better put it