SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[southerngale]

I don't like seeing a moderate risk. I'm hoping something will change later tonight and it will be downgraded to only a slight risk.

Personally I think you should hope that it won't be upgraded to a high risk as that seems very possible right now.

[Yankeegirl]

Well I was going to take the kids to the motorcross show over at reliant tomorrow night at 7, but i really dont wanna be out in this weather... not to mention, i would have to have my daughter go to my in laws out in brookshire and if the weather is bad, i wanna be with her.... I know... im a sucker...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well I was going to take the kids to the motorcross show over at reliant tomorrow night at 7, but i really dont wanna be out in this weather... not to mention, i would have to have my daughter go to my in laws out in brookshire and if the weather is bad, i wanna be with her.... I know... im a sucker...

The worst should be over by mid-afternoon, but the worst place to be would be stuck in traffic when the bad stuff comes through.

[btangy]

Personally I think you should hope that it won't be upgraded to a high risk as that seems very possible right now.

Moderate risk looks reasonable given the current model forecasts. Convection may be mostly elevated in N part of the risk area and CAPE is not alarmingly high in the moderate risk region despite the high helicity (effective helicity will be much smaller). May see a setup a little more widespread that what was seen in FL a few nights ago, but am not expecting a blockbuster event, IMO.

[southerngale]

Well I was going to take the kids to the motorcross show over at reliant tomorrow night at 7, but i really dont wanna be out in this weather... not to mention, i would have to have my daughter go to my in laws out in brookshire and if the weather is bad, i wanna be with her.... I know... im a sucker...

The worst should be over by mid-afternoon, but the worst place to be would be stuck in traffic when the bad stuff comes through.

I thought the worst was supposed to occur Saturday night. I was going to make a decision whether to stay in my house after the late morning SPC update. hmmm
I wouldn't want to be in this house during high winds and/or a tornado... when I believe a threat is real, I go to my parent's house or my sister's house. That's ONE of the reasons I'm moving (the other is I need a bigger house).

[JenBayles]

I see the Bear Creek Dome is holding this afternoon. Rain to the right of me; rain to the left of me... but nothing here yet. Methinks the longer we stay dry, the better...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well I was going to take the kids to the motorcross show over at reliant tomorrow night at 7, but i really dont wanna be out in this weather... not to mention, i would have to have my daughter go to my in laws out in brookshire and if the weather is bad, i wanna be with her.... I know... im a sucker...

The worst should be over by mid-afternoon, but the worst place to be would be stuck in traffic when the bad stuff comes through.

I thought the worst was supposed to occur Saturday night. I was going to make a decision whether to stay in my house after the late morning SPC update. hmmm
I wouldn't want to be in this house during high winds and/or a tornado... when I believe a threat is real, I go to my parent's house or my sister's house. That's ONE of the reasons I'm moving (the other is I need a bigger house).

Well, you're in Beaumont. So you'll be getting the worst late afternoon and evening.


Hmmmmmm, well, the 18Z WRF is later in the evening and overnight. It seems a tad slower than previous models I had looked at.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From what I have been hearing, we will have super-cells forming during the afternoon followed by a squall line during the late afternoon or early evening.

[srainhoutx]

Updated WHO from HGX...


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
417 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
161315-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
417 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

...SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 4 AM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAY TWO...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...SECONDARY
ROADS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN MID MORNING SATURDAY AND
LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE GREATER THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN DURING
RECENT EVENTS.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ENOURAGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...NEWS MEDIA...INTERNET...AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION SOURCES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY IF SEVERE
TORNADOES OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN YOUR AREA.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION ARE LIKELY SATURDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20outlook

[Ed Mahmoud]

A few minutes ago that cell offshore South of the Sabine had a suspicious shape to it...


Calcascieu and Vermillion parishes may have some weather this evening...

[RL3AO]

That had a nice hook on it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quitting time, and the laptop is in the shop after a soup eating accident.


I feel so naked, trusting TWC and the local TV stations to keep me informed...

[jasons2k]

The cell offshore didn't have a hook to it. It was an optical illusion, another smaller cell was merging into the larger one and for a frame or two it just had the appearance of one.

[KatDaddy]

Just put a new battery in the weather radio. Its been a long time I brought out. Last time was Rita. Everyone get your digital and video cameras ready. Tomorrow will be a weather watch day.

[Tireman4]

Everyone in the SE Texas Area stay safe tomorrow. I would review all safety plans for inclement weather. I have to teach from 1-5 tomorrow. I am thinking of rolling through my lectures so I can let them go early. That is my thinking right now.

[Bunkertor]

http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=ElA1uVTKdMk

[JenBayles]

I hear ya Kat Daddy! When Rita was threatening, I purchased a battery operated DVD/ TV that can even be charged in my vehicle. It works with a cable connection, and when that goes out I can plug in the rabbit ears. I can't tell you how many times it's come in handy during weather-related power outages.

I've sent out Jeff's Updates to scores of friends and family, so I feel I've done my part in making people aware of possible twisters and just generally crappy weather tomorrow. The majority of them responded with, "HUH? I haven't heard a word about bad weekend weather on the news!"

[KatDaddy]

Hey Jen I have done same today and yesterday. I have a mass email list from friends, family, and current and ex-coworkers. I am charging the digital camera battery.
It almost feels like we are awaiting a hurricane to make landfall. Stay safe.

[Ptarmigan]

This could be the biggest weather event since Hurricane Rita in 2005. I will keep an eye on this weather.

[KatDaddy]

Just got the deck cleaned up. A good trial run for the upcoming hurricane season. Thinking of the hurricane season its been along time since Alicia back in 83.