Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#761 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:13 pm

114 hours

Still stationary.

wiggles · #762 Postby **wiggles** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:14 pm

If this thing stalls could that keep it from going west?

#763 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:14 pm

Interesting report from Nassau...Wind now NNE and waterspout in OBS

(MYNN) 25-03N 077-28W 7M

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Conditions at Sep 17, 2007 - 06:00 PM EDTSep 17, 2007 - 05:00 PM CDTSep 17, 2007 - 04:00 PM MDTSep 17, 2007 - 03:00 PM PDTSep 17, 2007 - 02:00 PM ADTSep 17, 2007 - 01:00 PM HDT
2007.09.17 2200 UTC
Wind from the NNE (020 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds, towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 95.0 F (35.0 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 70%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.95 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob MYNN 172200Z 02004KT 7NM FEW010CB SCT018TCU BKN220 30/24 A2995 RMK/CB/TCU ALQDS/SHWRS/NW-N

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24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 6 PM (22) Sep 17 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.95 (1014) NNE 5
5 PM (21) Sep 17 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 7 funnel cloud (tornado or waterspout); showers in the vicinity
4 PM (20) Sep 17 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.97 (1015) Variable 2
3 PM (19) Sep 17 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) Variable 2
2 PM (18) Sep 17 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) Calm

jhamps10 · #764 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:16 pm

two words on GFS thus far....

UH-OH! if it stays stationary over where it is on that map, then all bets could be off as to what this becomes. espically with upper air conditions looking to become more favorable come mid-late week.

#765 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:17 pm

STILL stationary at 132 Hours in the Gulf.

#766 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:19 pm

132 hours

In 132 hours moves slowly NW.

#767 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:19 pm

skysummit wrote:STILL stationary at 132 Hours in the Gulf.

Moves a little bit NW but not much.

Derek Ortt · #768 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:20 pm

pressures are rising in that run of model NCEP... so if this solution verifies (the 1/100 chance model NCEP verifies), it depicts weakening as the system is stationary

So far, only the Canadian predicts significant intensification

Wx_Warrior · #769 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:20 pm

Sorry for the one liners but this is crazy.

Looks further south due to a further hanging trough on Sat...?

#770 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:21 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:pressures are rising in that run of model NCEP... so if this solution verifies (the 1/100 chance model NCEP verifies), it depicts weakening as the system is stationary

So far, only the Canadian predicts significant intensification

It's also showing increasing southwesterly shear in this run while it's stationary.

Wx_Warrior · #771 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:22 pm

tore up at 144

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_144m.gif

jhamps10 · #772 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:24 pm

skysummit wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:pressures are rising in that run of model NCEP... so if this solution verifies (the 1/100 chance model NCEP verifies), it depicts weakening as the system is stationary

So far, only the Canadian predicts significant intensification

It's also showing increasing southwesterly shear in this run while it's stationary.

well at least that is some good news, Although totally a flip flop of what folks are thinking though.

#773 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:26 pm

jhamps10 wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:pressures are rising in that run of model NCEP... so if this solution verifies (the 1/100 chance model NCEP verifies), it depicts weakening as the system is stationary

So far, only the Canadian predicts significant intensification

It's also showing increasing southwesterly shear in this run while it's stationary.

well at least that is some good news, Although totally a flip flop of what folks are thinking though.

Yea...but we all know how good the GFS has been this year on strength and predicting shear. LOL At 144 hours it's showing a tore up system, so it'll probably be a major. LOL ...kidding of course.

chadtm80 · #774 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:29 pm

Topics have been merged.. We are not to demanding on how threads are done these days in the TT forum, however there were just to many discussing over lapping issues in post threads.. Just causing more confusion then needed

Wx_Warrior · #775 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:32 pm

I dont buy this...I believe shear is weaker than posted and with warm water, this is going to be a major player.

#776 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:34 pm

Well, what ever is left has finally moved inland near Rita country in the 162 - 168 hour timeframe.

Wx_Warrior · #777 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:35 pm

With a north turn,, that's all i need to know. I'll make some serious plans on Wed. if the same scenario pans out. See yall 2nite at the 10:30 00z run!

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #778 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:39 pm

This may cross florida similar to what katrina did-
after that, it goes over the loop current- I do not
know what will happen then, but it can't be good.

And I am not calling this a Katrina- I only say it may
have a katrina-type path OVER FLORIDA,
once in the gom anyone in the GOM could get it.
ENTIRE GOM must watch.

But the set up with the very strong ridge is similar to
rita in 2005, as a pro met mentioned yesterday.

Edited to include ENTIRE GOM.

Wx_Warrior · #779 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:40 pm

From upper mid coast Texas on east...No just TX/LA my friend

Extremeweatherguy · #780 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:44 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:From upper mid coast Texas on east...No just TX/LA my friend

Highest risk areas are probably from Brownsville to New Orleans..and possibly FL from an initial landfall if it forms in time. The pattern, according to JB, is indicative of a TX/LA landfalling system in the end run. The only way I see this going further east would be if a sudden front (currently not expected) comes out of the blue and turns this system in time.

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