TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[double D]

Maybe the Jan 23rd-25th will be an even better set up for some snow across se texas..

The problem with the GFS is that it always shows the cold 8-10 days away only to loose it as the event draws nearer. What has been frustrating (especially this year) is that the GFS will show cold/ice for several days only to switch back to a warmer and drier solution.

Could you imagine if the GFS was accurate in the long range, Texas would be in the top 10 snowiest states.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I love how just because one GFS run has switched to a drier scenario, everyone is taking the bait and saying that the GFS has once again let us down. lol. That would be just about as silly as believing the GFS when it showed snow for just one run even though that run was nothing like the previous few runs of the model. lol. It takes a little more than just one run to become a trend, and until I start seeing the same thing on the 12z, 18z and 0z, I am not going to be so confident that nothing will come of this just yet.

Let's wait a little while longer before announcing that we are in the clear for any kind of wintery weather in Texas.

[southerngale]

I love how just because one GFS run has switched to a drier scenario, everyone is taking the bait and saying that the GFS has once again let us down. lol. That would be just about as silly as believing the GFS when it showed snow for just one run even though that run was nothing like the previous few runs of the model. lol. It takes a little more than just one run to become a trend, and until I start seeing the same thing on the 12z, 18z and 0z, I am not going to be so confident that nothing will come of this just yet.

Let's wait a little while longer before announcing that we are in the clear for any kind of wintery weather in Texas.

Well, that's because this is what happens every time. How many times this fall/winter has the GFS shown frozen precip for us in the medium to long range? And how much have we received?

There's a reason people respond this way.


Don't get me wrong... I'd LOVE to get some snow. I got gypped in 2004 and didn't get the winter wonderland that everyone around me got. I've been wanting to build a snowman since I was a little kid. I just don't think it's going to happen. Because it was Christmas and we had family things to do, even a short road trip was out. Here's my impressive snowfall: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=54572&p=783171&hilit=#p783171

[SETXweatherwatcher]

Ok, y'all, I am much better at understanding the tropical information than I am at understanding the Winter stuff. Y'all help me out here. What is IP on one of the model maps? I understand surface temps and that sort of stuff. But I really want some snow in SETX so what do I need to watch for?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I love how just because one GFS run has switched to a drier scenario, everyone is taking the bait and saying that the GFS has once again let us down. lol. That would be just about as silly as believing the GFS when it showed snow for just one run even though that run was nothing like the previous few runs of the model. lol. It takes a little more than just one run to become a trend, and until I start seeing the same thing on the 12z, 18z and 0z, I am not going to be so confident that nothing will come of this just yet.

Let's wait a little while longer before announcing that we are in the clear for any kind of wintery weather in Texas.

The 12Z GFS is starting to leak out now. Anyway, both SPC and NWS HGX mentioning high based storms late this afternoon, with dry air near the surface, but 8ºC lapse rates in the mid levels, which promises at least a chance for low end severe hail and gusty winds.


Gotta take what you can get.


I worked out in West Texas, near Monahans, in 1994, when high based t-storms and temps near 110ºF produced windy lightning storms without rain, and started big grass fires.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A look at the 12z GFS...

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It shows 850mb temperatures below 0C for a good chunk of the state by early Thursday morning with a little bit of moisture and precipitation around. This would mean that a few reports of sleet or flurries would be possible: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_114l.gif

Pretty good flow of air coming from NW Canada by 12am Thursday: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_114l.gif

By 6am Thursday morning, surface temperatures at or below 32F reach parts of SE Texas and 850mb temperatures below 0C sag south to nearly the coast. With a little bit of lingering moisture, a few sleet or flurry reports may still be possible...even as far south as the metro Houston-area: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_120l.gif

This run then goes on to not show the Friday winter weather system (similar to the 6z GFS), but it does still show some pretty cold air overtaking the area...

Widespread freeze on Friday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_144l.gif

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All in all, based on this run, it looks like we may have a slim chance at a few scattered flurry/sleet reports on Thursday morning, followed by a cold setup for Friday morning with clearing skies. Nothing major (in terms of an extreme winter storm or extreme temperatures), but definitely a chance to see a little excitement in the pattern by late next week.

BTW - Something to keep in mind is that next Thursday morning is only 114 hours away. That is less than five days! A shorter time period like that definitely helps add to the believability factor.

[Ed Mahmoud]

EWG, by the time it gets cold enough (except for some light snow in North Texas) the precip is on the way out. A frost in January is nothing special, and cold without snow is just uncomfortable, causing dry skin and static shocks with no benefits.






Looks like another winter wx cancel.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, I guess even a few snow flurries that melt as soon as they hit the ground would be a real change of pace.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG, by the time it gets cold enough (except for some light snow in North Texas) the precip is on the way out. A frost in January is nothing special, and cold without snow is just uncomfortable, causing dry skin and static shocks with no benefits.

[img]-image cut to save room-[/img]

Looks like another winter wx cancel.

Ed, I agree that it will definitely be a close call, but according to the 12z GFS there is certainly the possibility that we could see a little light winter weather into parts of SE Texas next week...

12am Thursday 850mb temperatures = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif

12am Thursday thicknesses = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif

6am Thursday 850mb temperatures = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

6am Thursday thicnkesses = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

Total precipitation amounts between 12am and 6am on Thursday = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_120l.gif

It looks the cold air will be pouring into the region with quickly falling thicknesses and 850mb temperatures between midnight and 6am on Thursday morning. The GFS is showing the precipitation ending by ~6am, but prior to that, it is still showing some moisture around during the 12am - 6am timeframe. If this remaining moisture is actually present and not just a fantasy, then it will easily fall in the form of snow or sleet or even a rain/sleet or rain/snow mix in parts of our region. The overall amounts of any such winter weather will be very light and the precipitation will likely be isolated and ending, but there does at least seem to be a slim chance that parts of SE Texas could see some form of wintry precipitation before sunrise on Thursday morning (with no accumulations). If nothing else, it is at least something to watch.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS MOS data for IAH looks like this...

Wednesday
High - 55
Overnight Low - 39
58% precipitation chance

Thursday
High - 49
Overnight Low - 33
47% precipitation chance

Friday
High - 57
Overnight Low - 42
24% precipitation chance

Considering the MOS has the tendency to be a couple of degrees too warm at times, it will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out. If nothing else, it looks like it will at least be getting pretty chilly late next week.

[southerngale]

12z GFS MOS data for IAH looks like this...

Wednesday
High - 55
Overnight Low - 39
58% precipitation chance

Thursday
High - 49
Overnight Low - 33
47% precipitation chance

Friday
High - 57
Overnight Low - 42
24% precipitation chance

Considering the MOS has the tendency to be a couple of degrees too warm at times, it will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out. If nothing else, it looks like it will at least be getting pretty chilly late next week.

It's pretty chilly this week.
A low of 36 here this morning and a low of 37 yesterday morning.
But I know... I see it's colder during the day, according to that run, since it's already 59 here.

But I'm all ready for some colder weather with some winter precip! Keep searching until you find the models that show that scenario again. I just have to keep it real, so I don't get too disappointed. lol

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian says no fun at all in SE Texas

[gboudx]

This isn't even anything to get excited about here in NTX. Flurries=justatease. And that will probably be lost as we get closer. Oh well.

So the next fantasy winter event for Texas is 1/23-/125 timframe huh? Coooool.

[Portastorm]

Couple of quick thoughts as I check in briefly (I'm in the midst of several honey-do's today):

1) I see the trend in the modeling as I posted this morning but think it's premature to dismiss anything this far out. This could be nothing more than the kind of front we saw around New Years or it could be more. Too far away to get excited about anything.

2) The 12z Euro, just out, reverses the trend and looks colder and wetter for my part of Texas:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

[wall_cloud]

the Texans' infatuation with snow cracks me up. You guys need to stop -removed- and take the models for what they are. Nothing more than a first guess.

[Extremeweatherguy]

VERY interesting forecast just released by the Houston NWS...

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.

32F + 20% chance of showers = something to watch closely.

[PineyWoods]

the Texans' infatuation with snow cracks me up. You guys need to stop -removed- and take the models for what they are. Nothing more than a first guess.

I'm a Texan and had a huge infatuation with snow as I never saw it until the snows in Houston in '73. Imagine then moving to Klamath Falls, Oregon and seeing it for 9 months before my parents said "enough".

Any stats on the % of accuracies on the individual models out past 5 days?

[Ed Mahmoud]

the Texans' infatuation with snow cracks me up. You guys need to stop -removed- and take the models for what they are. Nothing more than a first guess.

Easy to say 700 miles Northwest and 4000 feet in elevation from here, where it snows every winter...

[Stratosphere747]

the Texans' infatuation with snow cracks me up. You guys need to stop -removed- and take the models for what they are. Nothing more than a first guess.

I'm a Texan and had a huge infatuation with snow as I never saw it until the snows in Houston in '73. Imagine then moving to Klamath Falls, Oregon and seeing it for 9 months before my parents said "enough".

Any stats on the % of accuracies on the individual models out past 5 days?

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Houston radar- can elevated storms build far enough South to drop frozen precip (small hail) in HOU area?