Texas Winter 2013-2014

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

This place is awefully quiet considering what is on the forecast map for the next 5 days.

[gboudx]

I'm still in disbelief that Rockwall ISD called off today at 6PM last night. That's unprecedented in my eight years here. Even in 2011, you had to check very late at night or at 6 the next morning every day. They ended up cancelling every day that week, but it was hard on parents trying to make plans. I'm sure most of the side roads are in terrible shape this morning, so they made the right call and at the right time.

I share the same disbelief. Maybe it's the 66 bridge that swung them to close. Neighborhood streets have some ice on them, but no worse than yesterday and main roads are easily passable. If it turns out they could've opened today, watch next time be at the last minute again. However, I wouldn't want the job of deciding to close an entire school district.

[ndale]

Seems to be more radar returns out over the hill country and EWX has several local storm reports of freezing drizzle out there. It is moving our way but the question is will it be enough to overcome our dry air. My dewpoint is sitting at 19.

I'm wondering the same thing. I'll tell you what, if nothing ends up happening ... this will go down as one of the most colossal weather forecast busts in Austin history. I know some around here (Storm 2k) were calling "bust" in Houston but at least in that event, SOMETHING happened. Here in Austin we have pretty much every ISD shut down and local/state government half daying it ... that's a lot of inactivity. This would be a huge bust. Someone better hope that freezing drizzle starts falling soon or there will be some 'splaining to do!

I know. I work for Tx Medicaid in their contact center. We need to be open so providers (doctors, pharmacies, hospitals, etc.) can get info they need about clients. As it stands now those of us like me who work from home don't start until 10am and the people working in the office aren't starting until 1pm.

[ndale]

Storm reports from the hill country shows conditions are worse there, bridges iced over and reports of numerous accidents.

[ndale]

EWX just posted update:

...EXPANDING ADVISORY TO INCLUDE UVALDE AND REAL COUNTIES...

.LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE TO COLLECT AS ICING ON EXPOSED
SURFACES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND WESTERN AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING THE WORST OF THE WEATHER THIS
MORNING. NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW COULD DEVELOP BY LATE
THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...BUT ARE
STILL LIKELY TO LEAD TO TRAVEL PROBLEMS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-10
SHOULD ENCOUNTER ICING MAINLY OVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON
NEARLY ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER... LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71 COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

[veedub63]

.............Here in Austin we have pretty much every ISD shut down and local/state government half daying it ... that's a lot of inactivity. This would be a huge bust. Someone better hope that freezing drizzle starts falling soon or there will be some 'splaining to do!

Unfortunately, you are probably correct. Without doubt, some blowhard elected public servant will attempt to bolster their political agenda by tossing someone under the bus. Sadly, the folks who will have the dark shadow cast upon them will be the individuals providing an actual service to the public. It's a no-lose situation for the politician; the scapegoat is built-in. If a wintry mess evolves, the politician is a hero for making such a "bold" decision. If nothing transpires, the politician shifts the blame and appoints a special investigator. I'm pulling for the underdog. Come on wintry weather!! (sorry for the rant)

[Portastorm]

FWIW, I have just "pinged" several private sector pro mets I know in Austin and they feel confident the bottom is about to drop out.

[Longhornmaniac8]

FWIW, I have just "pinged" several private sector pro mets I know in Austin and they feel confident the bottom is about to drop out.

When you say "the bottom is about to drop out," you're referring to impending precipitation of some variety?

[ndale]

FWIW, I have just "pinged" several private sector pro mets I know in Austin and they feel confident the bottom is about to drop out.

Yeah radar shows more returns and my dewpoint is rising and the clouds are lowering.

[Tireman4]

FWIW, I have just "pinged" several private sector pro mets I know in Austin and they feel confident the bottom is about to drop out.

What is going on? You mean now? You mean Tuesday? Dang it Porta, out with it....

[Tammie]

The precip in West Texas appears to be traveling more NNE than ENE. Is Denton going to miss any snow fun? TIA

[Portastorm]

I'm sorry .... what I meant by the bottom dropping out, I mean precip will start falling in Austin this morning. And that has happened in the last 30 minutes. I just went outside and the PWC is reporting light freezing drizzle. It's finally starting to precipitate here in Austin. Should continue now into the afternoon. Mets told me it took a while for the lower cloud deck to form and encroach upon the I-35 corridor.

[Longhornmaniac8]

I'm sorry .... what I meant by the bottom dropping out, I mean precip will start falling in Austin this morning. And that has happened in the last 30 minutes. I just went outside and the PWC is reporting light freezing drizzle. It's finally starting to precipitate here in Austin. Should continue now into the afternoon. Mets told me it took a while for the lower cloud deck to form and encroach upon the I-35 corridor.

I would assume a fair bit of this will wind up being light enough to not even show up on radar returns. But it doesn't take much below to clog things up here, as we all know.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You can see it on the radar. The one from noaa usually when there is 'grey' on the map, clouds are low or its drizzling lightly

[Portastorm]

FWIW, I have just "pinged" several private sector pro mets I know in Austin and they feel confident the bottom is about to drop out.

What is going on? You mean now? You mean Tuesday? Dang it Porta, out with it....

As for next week, right now I'm thinking that it would be a North Texas matter and we'll (south central/southeast Texas) just have cold rain. Still a bit too far out though to be any more certain. We all know how the models have struggled 5 days out with temps. We'll all have to be watching the latest model runs/info this weekend.

[dhweather]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Friday, 7 February 2014 9:45 CST

Good morning,

We're looking at two winter precipitation events across north and central Texas today. In the northern counties, additional snow is possible. Farther south, freezing drizzle is a concern...mainly this morning. Both areas pose concerns for travel, and I'll focus on each of them below. Please see the attached graphics for additional details.



BOTTOM LINE:

Light snow is expected in areas generally along and north of a Comanche-Cleburne-Sulphur Springs line through mid afternoon today. This system is weaker than the one we experienced Thursday, so overall amounts should be quite light - generally 1/10" to less than 1/2 inch. While this snowfall could produce some (new) slick spots, we don't believe the road impacts will be close to what we received Thursday.

However, there will likely be a band of heavier snow within this broad area - and we believe this will produce some locally higher amounts of at least 1 inch. The most likely area where this heavier band will set up is in Young, Jack, Montague, Wise, Cook and Grayson Counties through 2 pm. Within these areas, you can likely expect some additional snow packing and icy conditions - comparable to what was experienced on Thursday. Please understand that there is some uncertainty in the exact location, duration and intensity of this heavier band, so jurisdictions to the immediate south of these counties should also remain alert for the possibility of locally greater impacts than we currently expect.

Farther south, we are currently experiencing freezing drizzle in many areas south of a Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens on Friday. This will likely expand in coverage and persist through the mid afternoon hours. With temperatures generally in the mid to upper 20s this morning, we expect ice to form on many bridges, overpasses, and surface roadways during the next few hours. While liquid amounts will be quite light, we do expect slick conditions to develop and persist through the day. Travel could become seriously impeded in many areas south of this line today.

For those counties that lie between the two precipitation areas I've outlined, you can expect some light snow, primarily, though some light freezing drizzle is also possible through midday. At this time, we don't believe the amounts will be significant enough to produce appreciable travel impacts. However, this is another area of uncertainty, due to how these systems - and their moisture sources - unfold. If you're a jurisdiction in one of theses counties, please stay alert for the possibility of some light winter precipitation through midday, which may produce some minor slick spots.

Emergency managers, elected officials, and other partners need to be aware of the impacts anticipated with both the snow event, and the freezing drizzle. This comes in addition to residual icy patches that still exist in areas along and north of Interstate 20 due to today's snow.

TIMING: Snow in the north should taper off and mostly end by 3 pm. The freezing drizzle - which may transform to plain liquid drizzle in the far SE counties by afternoon (where temps rise to near freezing), will likely taper from west to east this afternoon, but will linger in areas east of I-35 into the evening hours.

I will do my best to get another e-mail out by 1 pm. In the meantime, please don't hesitate to call or e-mail if you have any questions. As always, please don't hesitate to contact us if you have any questions.

Thanks,

Tom

--
Tom Bradshaw
Meteorologist-in-Charge
WFO Dallas Fort Worth
National Weather Service

[WeatherNewbie]

Is there an ETA on when snow should be starting around the Metroplex (if at all)?

[utpmg]

Aside from precip, why did they miss the overnight low so badly in Austin? Forecast 24, looks like 29 was the minimum.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1016 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z FORT WORTH RAOB INDICATES A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR 700MB...BUT
IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOIST THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST BY THE
MODELS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. STILL THIS IS CAUSING MOST OF THE SNOW
THAT IS SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS TO SUBLIME. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT IN A BAND FROM NEAR GRAHAM TO GAINESVILLE TO
DURANT AND THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION
AND MODERATE SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATIONS. RADAR RETURNS ARE
VERIFYING MODEL FORECASTS BY SHOWING A HIGHER REFLECTIVITY IN
THIS AREA...AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AT THE SURFACE AS
THE COLUMN SATURATES. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH HALF INCH
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS YOUNG...JACK AND THE RED RIVER
BORDER COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING THE I-20 CORRIDOR...
WITHOUT THE STRONGER SNOW DYNAMICS IN PLACE...JUST SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED WITH A MINOR
ICING EVENT UNFOLDING THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUES.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS BUT DRIZZLE
IS DEVELOPING IN A SUB-FREEZING LAYER...THUS IS ALREADY
SUPERCOOLED AND WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH SURFACES THAT ARE ALSO
SUB-FREEZING DUE TO THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS. RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 10-20 DBZ
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND VISIBILITIES ARE TANKING BELOW 2 MILES.
THIS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ICING OF ROADS AND
ESPECIALLY BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. REPORTS OF ICY ROADS ARE NOW BEING
RECEIVED ACROSS BELL AND MILAM COUNTIES.

EXPECT THE DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE
FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS DUE TO THE COOLING
EFFECTS OF THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND WILL NEED TO EXTEND AT
LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE ADVISORY TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY WARMED TO 32 AND 34 IN ATHENS AND PALESTINE...BUT THEY MAY
DIP DOWN ONCE DRIZZLE MOVES INTO THIS AREA. WILL WAIT A LITTLE
WHILE TO DECIDE WHETHER THE EASTERN PART OF THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO
BE EXTENDED. FOR THE CENTRAL TEXAS AREA...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM...AND WILL EXTEND THAT PART OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH 5PM.

FINALLY FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA THAT HAS NO WINTER
ADVISORY OUT...WILL BE WATCHING THE DRIZZLE CLOSELY TO SEE IF IT
SPREADS FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED.

[orangeblood]

Latest soundings in the Metroplex continue to insist on a thick dry layer around 4-5,000 ft. thick...just don't think this system is strong enough to overcome that dry layer. IMO, as far as snow, wouldn't expect much in the DFW metroplex...Red River counties are where most of the action will probably reside. But the freezing drizzle working its way up from the south is something to keep an eye on

Tuesday's system continues to trend weaker......


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.