Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7661 Postby **Ralph's Weather** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:13 pm

0Z RGEM shifts main band of sub freezing precip to Central Texas. Still plenty of precip for North and Northeast Texas.

SouthernMet · #7662 Postby **SouthernMet** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:15 pm

Meanwhile ewx is hardcore stalling....

#7663 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:20 pm

SouthernMet wrote:Meanwhile ewx is hardcore stalling....

Looks like everyone is kicking the can down the road to the morning shift. Of course they are risking a NOWCAST instead of a FORECAST.

Website · #7664 Postby **Brent** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:23 pm

The Dallas TV mets are hyping... "bands of heavy sleet and snow" CBS 11 outright called for up to an inch of sleet

So... what is FWD waiting on???

Oh I see... I guess the GFS went south lol

#7665 Postby **Ralph's Weather** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:24 pm

It will be interesting to see if the models keep shifting south or bounce back north.

SouthernMet · #7666 Postby **SouthernMet** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:26 pm

gfs continues to show the heaviest band in central texas, well south of dfw.

#7667 Postby **HockeyTx82** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:28 pm

Brent wrote:The Dallas TV mets are hyping... "bands of heavy sleet and snow" CBS 11 outright called for up to an inch of sleet

So... what is FWD waiting on???

The next shift....... :wink:

But yes I agree, would not hurt to pull the trigger now.

Website · #7668 Postby **Brent** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:38 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Brent wrote:The Dallas TV mets are hyping... "bands of heavy sleet and snow" CBS 11 outright called for up to an inch of sleet

So... what is FWD waiting on???

The next shift.......

But yes I agree, would not hurt to pull the trigger now.

LOL I figured as much. I just don't think people take an advisory seriously enough especially in this case where it's going to be at least a high end advisory event.

#7669 Postby **Yukon Cornelius** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:41 pm

Our local meteorologist said the storm will come in weaker in this area than they thought earlier today and it should be a low impact storm...

#7670 Postby **somethingfunny** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:42 pm

ludosc wrote:Hey guys I was hoping yall might be able to help me out. A friend of mine is a pastor at a church here in Fort Worth and they have a Wednesday night service tomorrow. He's heard me talk a lot about weather stuff since it's a huge interest of mine and so he's reached out to me for advice about canceling or not canceling the service tomorrow. Service starts at 6 pm and lets out at around 8:30 pm. He said people usually hang out until 9ish afterwards. Normally they would run off of FWISD's schedule, but since the service is in the evening, that probably won't apply to them. So my question is what do yall thing the roads in Fort Worth might look like around that time tomorrow? I did tell him that in the best of times, winter weather is hard to predict in Texas.

Anyway, thanks for the help

I would cancel.

#7671 Postby **orangeblood** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:48 pm

SouthernMet wrote:gfs continues to show the heaviest band in central texas, well south of dfw.

And you believe this model why?

SouthernMet · #7672 Postby **SouthernMet** » Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:01 am

I don't necessarily believe it, just pointing out the run? Most guidance has been showing the heavier band in central tx since we first started watching this.

weatherdude1108 · #7673 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:17 am

It was 61 degrees on my car thermometer driving home just before 5pm. I was driving under the 45/183 flyover in Austin. I noticed these huge drops of water hitting the windshield, but it wasn't raining. I noticed it was more wet under the flyover. I realized it had been in the 30s and 40s for several days. The warm front interacted with the colder flyover metal gurders, condensing on them to create those drops. They were falling all over the place! I told my wife about it. She was not interested.lol I thought it was cool! Science in action on a larger scale! :cheesy:

#7674 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:05 am

Euro says FW better start triggering those WSW's, so does OUN for the Falls.

Website · #7675 Postby **Brent** » Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:15 am

Ntxw wrote:Euro says FW better start triggering those WSW's, so does OUN for the Falls.

What exactly does the Euro show for DFW?

#7676 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:17 am

Random thought - it's 48 right now in Denison, which feels relatively mild after the last week.

In 24-hours, that will feel relatively warm.

And in six months, it would feel like an arctic cold front that would have Wxman57 looking for his thermal long johns.

#7677 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:21 am

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro says FW better start triggering those WSW's, so does OUN for the Falls.

What exactly does the Euro show for DFW?

2-4" of "stuff" and the model has been gradually getting wetter each run. And really the 4-5+ isn't that far away. And the winds sustained 20-25mph with gusts well over 30mph.

#7678 Postby **SnowintheFalls** » Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:22 am

Euro says FW better start triggering those WSW's, so does OUN for the Falls.<br/>

Local Mets here in the Falls started downplaying the event earlier. Not sure what they are basing their assessment on?

Website · #7679 Postby **Brent** » Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:27 am

SnowintheFalls wrote:Euro says FW better start triggering those WSW's, so does OUN for the Falls.<br/>

Local Mets here in the Falls started downplaying the event earlier. Not sure what they are basing their assessment on?

Kind of funny to me since the Dallas TV mets were definitely hyping... one even outright called for warning criteria accumulations

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro says FW better start triggering those WSW's, so does OUN for the Falls.

What exactly does the Euro show for DFW?

2-4" of "stuff" and the model has been gradually getting wetter each run. And really the 4-5+ isn't that far away. And the winds sustained 20-25mph with gusts well over 30mph.

Ooh... I'm looking forward to this wind. lol. Been a long time since I've had a windy winter storm

#7680 Postby **SnowintheFalls** » Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:28 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Our local meteorologist said the storm will come in weaker in this area than they thought earlier today and it should be a low impact storm...

Ntxw wrote:Euro says FW better start triggering those WSW's, so does OUN for the Falls.

Local Mets started downplaying the event earlier. Not sure what they are basing their assessments on?