ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

She is raining out some.
I expected this due to disruption of infeed of moist air from the south.
My thinking is the infeed may improve at about 78W.

[Steve H.]

Phoenix78 wrote:
Folks, I'm looking at the hourly weather forecast graphs on the NWS office website. My location in Vero Beach is forecasted on this graph to experience sustained winds of 65mph, with 80mph gusts Sunday night! Miami, West Palm and Lakeland also show much lower windspeeds than yesterday!! What's going on???? Are these graphs accurate????

Track drifted a little bit west. If you are in the cone then expectations are landfall can be anywhere in that cone. Track will drift left and right up until landfall. When wind estimates are produced that are based on that track so they will go up and down. Expect the worst, hope for the best.


I'm not sure how to cut and paste here, but my point is yesterday we were looking at sustained winds of 120mph, with gusts to 140 - now the forecast calls for winds of 65mph with gusts to 80!!!! Could this possibly be correct???

I wouldn't bet on it. Since the inner eyewall did collapse, the outer eyewall will become dominant and I expect that after some initial weakening, pressures may drop again, and intensifying should occur based on a continuing low shear environment and 89 degree F waters ahead of her. This is something that we should watch for. Regardless, Vero will experience high Cat 2/low Cat 3 winds according to the NHC forecast in the Vero beach area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Extratropical94]

NOAA NW EYEWALL DROP - 114 kt just above sfc
UZNT13 KWBC 081257
XXAA 58138 99219 70750 08015 99948 25807 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92214 23807 35619 85953 20606 01645 88999 77999
31313 09608 81230
61616 NOAA2 2011A IRMA OB 16
62626 EYEWALL 315 LST WND 013 MBL WND 00127 AEV 33304 DLM WND 026
24 946755 WL150 35623 088 REL 2194N07497W 123056 SPG 2181N07504W
123459 =
XXBB 58138 99219 70750 08015 00948 25807 11850 20606 22755 17804
21212 00948 ///// 11946 35114 22940 00124 33932 35126 44926 35620
55920 35619 66911 00640 77902 01140 88896 01130 99890 01630 11886
01625 22880 01636 33875 01634 44870 02140 55858 01638 66850 01645
77829 02643 88823 03664 99806 04625 11794 05133 22755 04607
31313 09608 81230
61616 NOAA2 2011A IRMA OB 16
62626 EYEWALL 315 LST WND 013 MBL WND 00127 AEV 33304 DLM WND 026
24 946755 WL150 35623 088 REL 2194N07497W 123056 SPG 2181N07504W
123459 =

[shawn6304]

With the way that Ms.Irma has been trying to break every record possible there is no doubt in my mind that she isn't going to try as hard as she can to intensify and come in as strong as she can. Just an opinion but i would be shocked if she is not a 5 at landfall.

[flamingosun]

Orlando here. Looks like on the current track we will get the right side (eye wall? not sure since the eye wall is so huge). My dad is in a mobile home in Kissimmee and being stubborn. Hoping to get him to leave. Praying we only get a 2 here because I'm not sure his place will hold up.

Oh, man. If he were mine, I'd try like the dickens to entice him to come visit me for a couple of days or so.

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 33
124500 2233N 07545W 7505 02456 9956 +136 //// 058085 086 051 010 01
124530 2235N 07546W 7517 02449 9968 +134 //// 058085 086 048 010 01
124600 2236N 07548W 7498 02477 9970 +135 +127 056081 084 047 012 00
124630 2237N 07550W 7501 02475 9973 +138 +117 054076 077 046 012 00
124700 2239N 07552W 7511 02473 9985 +134 +123 057078 079 044 009 00
124730 2240N 07554W 7529 02453 9989 +134 +121 054077 078 046 003 00
124800 2242N 07555W 7517 02471 9993 +135 +111 054077 077 042 002 00
124830 2243N 07557W 7510 02484 9998 +132 +111 055075 075 038 002 00
124900 2244N 07559W 7498 02492 9999 +132 +115 053074 074 036 001 03
124930 2243N 07602W 7524 02473 0008 +127 +120 051075 076 035 002 03
125000 2241N 07603W 7495 02506 0004 +130 +122 051076 077 042 002 03
125030 2238N 07603W 7483 02512 9999 +131 +107 051078 078 043 002 00
125100 2236N 07604W 7483 02509 9998 +130 +096 051080 080 042 003 00
125130 2233N 07604W 7483 02508 9997 +129 +100 049081 081 041 003 00
125200 2231N 07605W 7486 02504 9997 +128 +098 047081 081 041 002 00
125230 2228N 07605W 7486 02503 9994 +130 +097 045079 080 039 003 00
125300 2226N 07605W 7484 02503 9990 +133 +098 042078 078 042 004 00
125330 2223N 07606W 7509 02476 9990 +133 +102 040078 079 044 004 00
125400 2220N 07606W 7510 02475 9988 +134 +110 038078 078 043 005 00
125430 2218N 07605W 7509 02471 9984 +135 +104 038077 077 045 005 00

NOAA 34
URNT15 KWBC 081304
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 34 20170908
125500 2215N 07605W 7511 02465 9980 +135 +104 035077 077 046 006 00
125530 2213N 07605W 7510 02464 9976 +136 +105 032077 077 047 007 00
125600 2210N 07605W 7510 02461 9970 +138 +104 030078 078 046 007 00
125630 2208N 07604W 7511 02457 9969 +135 +107 029078 079 048 006 00
125700 2205N 07604W 7508 02457 9963 +135 +128 030082 083 049 006 00
125730 2203N 07604W 7513 02447 9962 +133 +121 024084 084 049 005 00
125800 2200N 07604W 7510 02448 9956 +136 +113 022087 088 049 004 00
125830 2158N 07603W 7510 02445 9953 +134 +125 019086 087 049 006 00
125900 2155N 07603W 7510 02442 9953 +131 +121 017084 084 049 006 00
125930 2152N 07603W 7509 02440 9951 +131 +119 015079 082 048 007 00
130000 2150N 07602W 7511 02434 9941 +135 +134 017077 078 047 007 00
130030 2147N 07602W 7509 02436 9937 +138 //// 021080 082 047 008 01
130100 2145N 07601W 7510 02434 9933 +139 //// 022080 082 049 007 01
130130 2142N 07601W 7497 02449 9930 +140 //// 019074 077 050 008 01
130200 2140N 07600W 7483 02459 9925 +142 //// 013071 072 051 006 01
130230 2137N 07559W 7498 02440 9922 +144 +143 011068 070 051 005 03
130300 2136N 07557W 7496 02439 9918 +143 +142 013070 071 051 005 03
130330 2136N 07555W 7531 02390 9911 +144 +140 013068 068 048 006 03
130400 2136N 07553W 7516 02407 9905 +144 +143 011071 075 051 007 00
130430 2136N 07551W 7510 02410 9901 +144 +141 012072 079 051 007 00

[dukeblue219]

With the way that Ms.Irma has been trying to break every record possible there is no doubt in my mind that she isn't going to try as hard as she can to intensify and come in as strong as she can. Just an opinion but i would be shocked if she is not a 5 at landfall.

Storms do not have a memory or a work ethic or ambition . They are merely a product of their environment.

[kaykayjs]

Orlando here. Looks like on the current track we will get the right side (eye wall? not sure since the eye wall is so huge). My dad is in a mobile home in Kissimmee and being stubborn. Hoping to get him to leave. Praying we only get a 2 here because I'm not sure his place will hold up.

Oh, man. If he were mine, I'd try like the dickens to entice him to come visit me for a couple of days or so.

I plan to. If he hasn't agreed to or isn't on his way Saturday ( we're supposed to start getting stuff Sunday) , Ill just drive down there.

[tolakram]

This looks legit (re-tweeted by a trusted source) ... but where will they go?

 https://twitter.com/CedarPosts/status/906139677526241280




Cedar Posts @CedarPosts
Massive flotilla lead by Disney Dream heading southwest out of Miami to avoid #hurricanirma this AM @spann @wxbrad
8:58 AM - Sep 8, 2017

[Alyono]

air force recon stopped reporting about 2 hrs ago

[tolakram]

Orlando here. Looks like on the current track we will get the right side (eye wall? not sure since the eye wall is so huge). My dad is in a mobile home in Kissimmee and being stubborn. Hoping to get him to leave. Praying we only get a 2 here because I'm not sure his place will hold up.

Oh, man. If he were mine, I'd try like the dickens to entice him to come visit me for a couple of days or so.

I plan to. If he hasn't agreed to or isn't on his way Saturday ( we're supposed to start getting stuff Sunday) , Ill just drive down there.

[HurricaneBelle]

[quote="tolakram"]This looks legit (re-tweeted by a trusted source) ... but where will they go?

 https://twitter.com/CedarPosts/status/906139677526241280



/quote]

Cozumel, probably.

[La Sirena]

air force recon stopped reporting about 2 hrs ago

I just saw that on another board.....hoping for the best.

[SouthDadeFish]

The new larger eye is starting to slowly take shape on IR imagery. You can see the wider ring of cold cloud tops associated with the new, larger eyewall. The old, smaller eye looks to be currently in the NW side of the larger eye.

[La Sirena]

This looks legit (re-tweeted by a trusted source) ... but where will they go?

 https://twitter.com/CedarPosts/status/906139677526241280



/quote]

Cozumel, probably.

Doesn't Katia make that a problem? Sorry, I haven't been following her track at all.

[GCANE]

Kermit reporting latest water measurements:

Profile Date: September 8th, 2017
Profile Time: 12:44:26Z
Profile Coordinates: 22.537N 75.72W

AXBT Channel: 12

Sea Surface Temperature: 29.52°C (85.1°F)
Depth of 26°C Isotherm: 403.5 m (1,324 ft)
Deepest Depth of AXBT: 403.5 m (1,324 ft)

[AutoPenalti]

Was that recon reporting only Cat 3, Cat 4 winds?

[O Town]

I guess it is good and means people are getting prepared but i thought this board would be hopping today and its really kind of a ghost town in here.

Yes, people are kinda freaking out a bit. I'm sure people are taking this last day or so to get everything in order. Besides that I myself am finding it hard to watch the news too much or read as much here because it's just making my anxiety sky rocket, and I am not normally an anxious person. Trying to just stay calm and take care of my family and property. Unplug some, and just get the important information needed to stay safe.

[PandaCitrus]

We have a potentially catastrophic and life threatening surge scenario developing on the west coast of Florida from Naples to Tampa if Irma makes a late northward turn. Hurricane warnings and mandatory evacuations have been slow on the west coast of Florida. Media attention has been slow. The storm surge scenario is much more dangerous on the west coast.

People are going to be in big, big trouble if the models are slightly wrong and this takes a late turn west.

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 35
URNT15 KWBC 081314
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 35 20170908
130500 2137N 07549W 7520 02390 9893 +146 +133 011070 075 053 006 00
130530 2137N 07547W 7521 02384 9886 +148 +140 010070 070 052 006 00
130600 2137N 07545W 7521 02378 9883 +144 +139 008070 072 050 008 00
130630 2137N 07543W 7521 02371 9874 +145 +137 008073 073 051 008 00
130700 2138N 07542W 7496 02393 9865 +144 +141 004075 077 051 008 00
130730 2138N 07539W 7499 02378 9852 +148 +144 003075 077 053 008 00
130800 2138N 07537W 7481 02395 9845 +149 +127 003077 078 054 005 00
130830 2136N 07535W 7474 02392 9834 +153 +112 000078 078 060 003 03
130900 2134N 07534W 7530 02328 9828 +161 +112 357079 079 062 002 00
130930 2131N 07533W 7515 02347 9830 +161 +114 353078 078 060 003 00
131000 2129N 07532W 7530 02328 9831 +160 +112 348074 076 058 002 00
131030 2127N 07530W 7513 02348 9829 +159 +113 343072 072 058 002 03
131100 2127N 07528W 7500 02351 9819 +159 +115 339073 074 058 003 03
131130 2128N 07527W 7524 02318 9808 +160 +117 339076 079 059 002 00
131200 2129N 07525W 7505 02326 9799 +151 +126 341084 085 059 003 00
131230 2130N 07523W 7510 02306 9784 +150 +128 341088 089 060 003 00
131300 2131N 07521W 7528 02271 9768 +151 +129 339091 092 061 004 00
131330 2131N 07520W 7503 02277 9748 +148 +142 337096 098 065 003 00
131400 2132N 07518W 7501 02260 9726 +151 +131 336099 100 069 005 00
131430 2133N 07516W 7520 02215 9701 +149 +135 337110 113 072 008 00