ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

Why does the GFS raise pressure from 913 to 943 in 6 hours?

You aren't looking at the high res

Link?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_9.png

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... HP a bit stronger and a tad faster/SW of 18z... I bet we get a Fl landfall

[meriland29]

Hr 54 has her a little ways more SW than 18z.



18z

[WeatherHoon]

Looks like it's going to end roughly the same. Ridge is breaking down pretty fast here.

[txwatcher91]

Hour 66 the tough in the NE is hanging back quite a bit more than the previous run. This is a trend towards the NAM 500mb setup.

[RL3AO]

Stop with the one liners if it isn't with an image.

[txwatcher91]

Hour 72 you can really see the energy starting to hit the thumb ridge. It should being breaking down next few frames and open wide for an alley north, passing along or just off the coast of FL.

[meriland29]

The gap between 18z and 00z still prominent. SW of 18z

[RL3AO]

Still might be a Carolinas run, but it should limit the "eastward trend" talk.

[MWatkins]

At T+78 it looks like there is more 588DM ridging, even with a little more amplified trough in the short term, there's more upstream ridging and less height breakdown between Irma and the trough.

Hopefully this corrects in another t+12 hours...

MW

[meriland29]

Definitely widening..



18z

[txwatcher91]

Here’s an example of the key players.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS 90 hrs... @40 miles SW of 18z... Little faster

[meriland29]

almost maybe 2 degrees SW at hr 90

[RL3AO]

About 60 miles SW this run.

[Ken711]

About 60 miles SW this run.

At that position is it headed for a scrape of Cuba?

[meriland29]

18z was jumping NW whereas this run is WNW with only it looks to be a small turn more NW the last frame at 96

[Blown Away]

00z GFS 96 hrs... Moving NW... Not liking this run from my location...

[txwatcher91]

Here’s an example of the key players.

You're not gonna let that dog lay? It's pretty clear GFS has trended West

I’m pointing out what the model is showing. I never said this run would trend further east. I find it helpful to point out what the key players are to watch in subsequent runs. If you compare this to previous runs you will see that the shortwave is stronger and the trough hanging back more. It doesn’t necessarily mean a more east track but those are the key components to watch.

[meriland29]

108 hours, drastic turn N, however still very much south and west of 18z