ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[mutley]

If she was out alittle farther from land I'd think she was going through an EWR .

It does look like the eye is now trying to close-up to me. I don't think it's weakening yet.

Agreed. Rain bands seem to be reforming nicely to the north.

[Chacor]

Recon just finished one pass over the centre. 964.7 hPa extrap pres and 71 kt SFMR max.

[CrazyC83]

Could this just hug the coastline and come in near Corpus Christi?

[HarlequinBoy]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Radar shows deteriorating precip, which is indicative of low level dry air on north side.

I was going to mention NW movement (N jog?) on BRO radar as well.

Actually precip has increased a bit to the north.. it deteriorated quite quickly a while ago though.

[LAwxrgal]

Recon just finished one pass over the centre. 964.7 hPa extrap pres and 71 kt SFMR max.

Pressure seems pretty low for a Cat 1 hurricane. Winds haven't caught up yet, and not sure they'll have time to.

[Derek Ortt]

sanibel

chetumal did not even get cat 3 winds.

lets stick to reality here

[carversteve]

It sure does look like she is drifting north..just doesn't seem like she wants to come ashore..very stubborn..just like a woman...lol..just a joke!!

[Chacor]

VDM is out. Centre is where recon got 964.9 hPa extrap. Max FL winds still from 1031z, didn;t find higher on this pass.

Perhaps most importantly...
M. OPEN N

[KWT]

Yep the thing is LAwxrgal we may not see the winds catch up now the mid level dry air is starting work its way in.

[HarlequinBoy]

There's coastal flood advisories all the way to Morgan City.

[Sanibel]

I agree that this looks like an eyewall replacement happening right offshore. And motion is nudging NW still. Could be a preshore spasm of a storm not wanting to go inland. Or reacting with land interaction for those who don't like personification.

[Derek Ortt]

the pressure continues to fall

there are no signs of weakening, at so

However, there may be a broadening of the wind field

[Thunder44]

20kt surface winds reported in the dropsonde that was in the eye. The pressure really may be as low as 962mb.

[HarlequinBoy]

...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IMMINENT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE EYE OF POWERFUL
HURRICANE DOLLY APPROACHING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF AT
LEAST 75 MILES PER HOUR...WITH GUSTS UP TO 95 MILES PER HOUR...ARE
LIKELY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE
WHEN THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY MOVES ONSHORE...AS DAMAGED TREES
...POWERLINES...AND BUILDINGS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ANYONE OUTDOORS.

[tolakram]

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... 9&smooth=0

South then north wobble ... maybe. Hardly moving.

[Pebbles]

I've been saying for years now I really wish someone would take on an intensive study of the effects of landfriction on hurricanes. I don't know how to put it in scientific terms so bear with me... but it only makes sense there would be more stormbuilding over the waters which would drag slightly on a storm causing it to 'wobble' along the coast just before landfall. We have seen this just too many times with too many storms.

Personally .. and this is just a hunch with no sound data to back it. I do think it's going to a wobble and go further up the coast then many are thinking ATM. That being said.. just a wobble.. it definately stays quite south of Corpus.

Then again, Probably going to regret going out on a limb and sharing my musings

[KWT]

Yep Thunder probably was close to 962mbs given the winds were still about when they dropped that. I think the system is holding steay right now though pressure does appear to be deoening a little bit still though not quite at the same rate it was earlier on.

HarlequinBoy, yep very soon hurricane force winds will be onland smashing onto the coast, just a matter of time before we see obs showing hurricane force gusts and maybe even sustained as the eyewall comes onshore.

[Frank2]

The GFDL pretty much nailed this storm - I can see why the NHC puts so much faith in the model - the newer HWRF, still doesn't seem to be as good as it had a poorer solution for Bertha and Dolly.

I'm glad Dr. Ooyama never listed to us when we'd think of suggesting that he not the long hours he used to, while working on the GFDL...

He passed away about 18 months ago, and, I'm sure he'd be pleased that this model is working so well...

Dolly seems to be struggling, but, poor Jim Cantore must be soaked by now...

[Derek Ortt]

Willoughby (1990) discussed how land can often cause a brief secondary eyewall

[CrazyC83]

I've been saying for years now I really wish someone would take on an intensive study of the effects of landfriction on hurricanes. I don't know how to put it in scientific terms so bear with me... but it only makes sense there would be more stormbuilding over the waters which would drag slightly on a storm causing it to 'wobble' along the coast just before landfall. We have seen this just too many times with too many storms.

Personally .. and this is just a hunch with no sound data to back it. I do think it's going to a wobble and go further up the coast then many are thinking ATM. That being said.. just a wobble.. it definately stays quite south of Corpus.

Then again, Probably going to regret going out on a limb and sharing my musings

That would probably be a good thing as it would keep the entire Rio Grande Valley out of the eyewall.