Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Aside from precip, why did they miss the overnight low so badly in Austin? Forecast 24, looks like 29 was the minimum.

Very good question. I just posed it to one of the pro mets (not on this board) I know and he said that evaporative cooling was expected to begin much earlier than it actually did. Therefore the temps didn't hit mid 20s as anticipated.

[Tcu101]

Aside from precip, why did they miss the overnight low so badly in Austin? Forecast 24, looks like 29 was the minimum.

Very good question. I just posed it to one of the pro mets (not on this board) I know and he said that evaporative cooling was expected to begin much earlier than it actually did. Therefore the temps didn't hit mid 20s as anticipated.

Only thing I could think of is they expected evap cooling, because other than the clouds breaking for radiational cooling( which was not likely) , temps were not going to fall much. Pressures were already falling upstream (DFW) and no more cold air advection.

[ndale]

Still very dry here, no precipitation reaching the ground.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS says cool light rain and mid 30s in D-FW next Mon/Tue and moderate rain with a temp around 40 here in Houston. Winter's last gasp down here?

[utpmg]

Very light drizzle falling in east austin for the last half hour or so. Not even glazing my smoker outside.

[ronyan]

We will have more fronts and more -WSI days ahead I predict. We're only just getting into the second week of Feb, winter probably isn't over for SE TX.

[ndale]

Very light drizzle falling in east austin for the last half hour or so. Not even glazing my smoker outside.

I am now on my lunch break so I went outside and on closer inspection can see we have a drizzle so light it is not even making anything damp much less icy.

Reposted to correspond with correct quote.

[wxman57]

We will have more fronts and more -WSI days ahead I predict. We're only just getting into the second week of Feb, winter probably isn't over for SE TX.

Any day below 80F is a -WSI day, but I'm ready to call winter over for at least Houston and probably NE TX, too. Will wait until next Wednesday in case some of NE TX gets freezing rain/sleet. After that, the pattern is changing.

[Tcu101]

We will have more fronts and more -WSI days ahead I predict. We're only just getting into the second week of Feb, winter probably isn't over for SE TX.

Any day below 80F is a -WSI day, but I'm ready to call winter over for at least Houston and probably NE TX, too. Will wait until next Wednesday in case some of NE TX gets freezing rain/sleet. After that, the pattern is changing.

Well you are starting to get the sun angle on your side now

[dhweather]

Ryan Maue tweet:


Main story from GFS 12z is that the Alberta Clippers are back but Arctic air mostly bottled up across Canadian border. #springfever

[weatherdude1108]

Work is closed today for the ice/snow that we are NOT having. There has been occasional drizzle all day. No ice here. Weather service here is extending Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm(??).

Thankful for being off with family. But I think EWX may have jumped the gun on this one.


Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014

...EXTENDING ADVISORY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUES...

.LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY ON EXPOSED SURFACES INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...BUT
ARE STILL LIKELY TO LEAD TO TRAVEL PROBLEMS. AS TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING...DRIZZLE WILL BE LIQUID. IN ADDITION
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TXZ171>173-185>194-203>209-219>225-072200-
/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140207T2200Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-
BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-
GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...LEAKEY...
KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...UVALDE...HONDO...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE
1131 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND SOME SURFACE BASED ROADWAYS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...COLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Dallas Love and DFW airport temps have now risen to 30 degrees.

[PineyWoods]

It's sleeting here in south Tyler. Temp is 34°
Guess this is the best we are going to get.

[utweather]

Work is closed today for the ice/snow that we are NOT having. There has been occasional drizzle all day. No ice here. Weather service here is extending Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm(??).
&&

Epic fail for schools off all day, looking at water vapor loop last night when announcement was made showed no major problems. The forecast for freezing drizzle low single digits of hundredths of an inch of precip was gonna be correct. Roads would be fine.

Usual normal fail for models from last week that showed negative tilted storm impacting wide range of Texas. Cold temps and low precip did occur though.

Edit: Temps above freezing now

[Tejas89]

What is going on in Austin? They canceled school, etc. and nada?

DFW area had the exact opposite happen yesterday! We didn't turn into Atlanta as the main roads were "ok" by late afternoon.

[Ralph's Weather]

A tiny bit of rain turned to a tiny bit of sleet during my lunch in and around downtown Tyler. Some more shows on the radar heading up this way from the south, but temps are safely above freezing here.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Ryan Maue tweet:


Main story from GFS 12z is that the Alberta Clippers are back but Arctic air mostly bottled up across Canadian border. #springfever

I sooooo grinned when I saw this earlier:


You folks must have been madly digging for those parkas of yours with 22F windchills down there!

[dhweather]

My PM is messed up. wxman57 - here's the latest and greatest.

This is basically a 3 click meteogram generator. It talks too! Requires Microsoft Excel on Windows.

http://www.heathweather.com/GFS_Chart_Creatorv4.xlsm

[gboudx]

^ Are you gonna try for the Mac version?

[wxman57]

My PM is messed up. wxman57 - here's the latest and greatest.

This is basically a 3 click meteogram generator. It talks too! Requires Microsoft Excel on Windows.

http://www.heathweather.com/GFS_Chart_Creatorv4.xlsm

Pretty amazing. I never knew it talked! Bottom scale is still off, though, and it's missing the last 4 data points. Here's a comparison with my meteogram maker. I set scales to be the same. Note that mine starts at 12Z today and ends 12Z next Saturday. Now that I look at the two more, the temps don't match. Highs seem to occur at 21Z on yours, but some of the values are different from mine.

I think I can see that the first point isn't plotting on yours. That's why yours starts with 15Z and mine with 6am (12Z).