Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

My impatience is growing. January was not good at all for moisture. We are already seeing fires break out, let's be clear though, it's not just the drier soils, these hard freezes killing, drying and browning vegitation are exacerbating the problem and it will only get worse.

Very boring weather pattern setting up over what looks to be the next several months. Maybe since this summer is supposed to be a La Niña we can get a weak tropical system in here and give Texas some rain. That’s my only hope at this point.

[Haris]

Pretty quiet here this afternoon . The 12z models have trended colder with the Tuesday cold front and next weekend cold front . Freezes in DFW . The ensembles including GEFS and EPS show 2-3” of rain in the next 1-2 weeks . Some GEFS members and CFS show some wintry precip . If models continue to show precip and colder air , I would not rule out another winter storm soon . CPC has Texas wetter and colder than normal 6-10 day outlook

[South Texas Storms]

My impatience is growing. January was not good at all for moisture. We are already seeing fires break out, let's be clear though, it's not just the drier soils, these hard freezes killing, drying and browning vegitation are exacerbating the problem and it will only get worse.

Very boring weather pattern setting up over what looks to be the next several months. Maybe since this summer is supposed to be a La Niña we can get a weak tropical system in here and give Texas some rain. That’s my only hope at this point.

Not sure what you guys are seeing, but the next few weeks look active across Texas. GFS, Canadian, and Euro operational and ensemble models indicating above normal precipitation across much of the state over the next 2 weeks.

[orangeblood]

Bubba - check out the EPS members for next weekend....very very interesting trends developing

[Cpv17]

My impatience is growing. January was not good at all for moisture. We are already seeing fires break out, let's be clear though, it's not just the drier soils, these hard freezes killing, drying and browning vegitation are exacerbating the problem and it will only get worse.

Very boring weather pattern setting up over what looks to be the next several months. Maybe since this summer is supposed to be a La Niña we can get a weak tropical system in here and give Texas some rain. That’s my only hope at this point.

Not sure what you guys are seeing, but the next few weeks look active across Texas. GFS, Canadian, and Euro operational and ensemble models indicating above normal precipitation across much of the state over the next 2 weeks.

Yeah, I haven’t really paid too much attention to the models the past couple days because I’ll admit, I was pretty disappointed after all the cold hype a few days ago went away, but now I’ll have to go look at them again since you’re saying they look active. I was mainly just referring to what Ntxw has been posting about and a few others saying that really bad drought conditions and above average temps look to be setting up over the next few months.

[Ntxw]

-SOI crash continues. Tahiti still has a ways to fall. -30s are not out the realm, that's the kind of values you see in moderate El Ninos. Still looking for some good precip events down the line here within the next few weeks

Code: Select all

25 Jan 2018   1009.43   1000.05   22.48   6.48   4.93
26 Jan 2018   1008.48   999.95   18.47   7.57   5.02
27 Jan 2018   1008.52   1000.45   16.30   8.19   5.24
28 Jan 2018   1008.51   1001.35   12.02   8.58   5.40
29 Jan 2018   1008.88   1001.10   14.94   9.11   5.54
30 Jan 2018   1009.65   1003.00   9.62   9.23   5.62
31 Jan 2018   1009.46   1004.90   -0.23   9.00   5.54
1 Feb 2018   1009.08   1006.65   -11.10   8.24   5.34
2 Feb 2018   1007.15   1006.30   -18.68   7.36   4.95

[Ntxw]

Yeah, I haven’t really paid too much attention to the models the past couple days because I’ll admit, I was pretty disappointed after all the cold hype a few days ago went away, but now I’ll have to go look at them again since you’re saying they look active. I was mainly just referring to what Ntxw has been posting about and a few others saying that really bad drought conditions and above average temps look to be setting up over the next few months.

In the long run that will be case. That doesn't mean we can't have periods of wetter or active weather. Seasonally and monthly we may see more deficits as the Nina lag effects continue for some more months.

I do like what I'm seeing from the stratosphere and jet extension. We have a lot of questions now about cold, but at least there is a something up there shaking up the stale pattern

[Cpv17]

Looks decent for the southern half of the state continuing the trend of this winter.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking back at January 2018 for Austin, we were very dry and cold. The airport averaged a mean temp 2.6 below normal while Mabry averaged 1.7 below normal. Precip deficit compared to normal totals was about 1.95" below normal.

I'm noticing how dry it has been, based on observations around here, and in my own yard. I ran sprinkler for the first time last weekend, mainly to test it out after the hard freeze, and because we haven't had measurable rain to speak of in months, and I have small cracks developing in yard. Also doing a wonder on my sinuses/throat. Humidifier running at night during sleep more often this Winter season. Also have a cheap ac adapter ultrasonic mini-humidifier in the car, a small diffuser/humidifier in office, along with a spray bottle of filtered/distilled water to spritz around on the carpet, air, plants, etc. to keep from getting shocked all the time, and to help moisten the air up a bit, at least temporarily. Filtered/distilled water minimizes the dissolved solids. I have gotten shocked on my leg (covered with jeans) on the metal part getting out of my car, more times than I can count, also at gas stations. My wife is like, 'Really??" When it's really low humidity like this, I make sure to keep touching car when I get out at gas station. Ridiculous. People tell me it must be my "shocking" personality.

[Brent]

I've cut way back on model watching after this last setup went poof... Maybe we can get something real inside 5 days soon hopefully

[Yukon Cornelius]

Not really legit forecasting but In contrast to Punxsutawney Phil, Bee Cave Bob, the armadillo, indicated an early spring..

[orangeblood]

I've cut way back on model watching after this last setup went poof... Maybe we can get something real inside 5 days soon hopefully

Next weekend is our next "bear" watch....interesting trends appear to be developing

[Ntxw]

Agreed. Despite the lack of enthusiasm,

GFS and Euro both have a pretty decent HP. Not too strong, not too weak with stuff digging in the west. Timing is key for North Texas but it's something. The trends have been a little better. Caveat 7 days. 80s watch canceled?








Some -EPO has returned on the guidance

[South Texas Storms]

North TX could see a risk of frozen precipitation next weekend based on the latest model trends. Much of the state could see widespread beneficial rainfall. Active pattern looks to be setting up for the next 1-2 weeks.

Side note...has anyone noticed wxman57's avatar lately? Seems like the heat miser is slowly making his return...

[hriverajr]

18z is looking very interesting for parts of Texas. Fairly strong high pressure... good moisture convergence.. below 0 850's for parts of western and north central Texas ..

[hriverajr]

North TX could see a risk of frozen precipitation next weekend based on the latest model trends. Much of the state could see widespread beneficial rainfall. Active pattern looks to be setting up for the next 1-2 weeks.

Side note...has anyone noticed wxman57's avatar lately? Seems like the heat miser is slowly making his return...

I saw that... thought my eyes were playing tricks on me hahah

[wxman22]

Yep the 18z GFS looks to be trending towards the CMC , temps are too warm though considering the strength of the high if that were to verify more places would see frozen precip than what it is currently showing.

[gpsnowman]

North TX could see a risk of frozen precipitation next weekend based on the latest model trends. Much of the state could see widespread beneficial rainfall. Active pattern looks to be setting up for the next 1-2 weeks.

Side note...has anyone noticed wxman57's avatar lately? Seems like the heat miser is slowly making his return...

I noticed that as well. It is like the picture Michael J. Fox has in Back to the Future with Marty McFly slowly dissappearing as the movie goes on. First day of spring it will be back as the heat miser 100%.
I would love another round of cold with a precip chance but I have my doubts. Orangeblood and Ntwx have encouraging news today though. I have mostly avoided paying attention to the weather lately. Lack of cold and precip has me with the weather blues.

[Cpv17]

That is a lot of precipitation. Now we just need some cold air. With that strong of a hp depicted on the models I would imagine it would be colder than what it’s showing now.

[Brent]

Nope not reeling me back in yet...winter cancel