ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

People have to realize that surge forecasting is about the POTENTIAL surge an area could see. Even a slight deviation to the angle of approach and the surge can be vastly different. 20+foot storm surge likely occurred somewhere along the coast. If they don’t forecast the potential surge over a large area, many people would be caught by surprise when the water rises higher than forecast. The way the NHC warned about it, the only surprise was the water wasn’t as high in some areas.

[dukeblue219]

I did not stay up for this storm, but looking back over the last hours of recon mission #25 I see a dropsonde splashed at 142kt right around midnight EDT, with 150+ just above. What a storm. Can only imagine what the shoreline will look like in the rising sun...

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WxDickey/status/1298969437433978880



 https://twitter.com/_Radarr/status/1298956654168420353



 https://twitter.com/wxcory/status/1298970933080850432



 https://twitter.com/NycStormChaser/status/1298964474175590400



 https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/1298946976264998912

[SconnieCane]

Laura's not done, folks. Once some daytime heating takes place over parts of MS/TN/AL and the weakening cyclone turns east toward that area, I expect the outer bands to become prolific tornado producers. Honestly surprised SPC hasn't upgraded portions of that area to an Enhanced Risk for tornadoes. In the meantime, it's still producing hurricane-force winds deep into LA/AR.

[RL3AO]

People have to realize that surge forecasting is about the POTENTIAL surge an area could see. Even a slight deviation to the angle of approach and the surge can be vastly different. 20+foot storm surge likely occurred somewhere along the coast. If they don’t forecast the potential surge over a large area, many people would be caught by surprise when the water rises higher than forecast. The way the NHC warned about it, the only surprise was the water wasn’t as high in some areas.

Correct. The numbers from the storm surge inundation map are the reasonable worst case scenario (or 1 in 10). The model accounts for things like track deviation, storm size, and tides. Had the storm made landfall 15 or 20 miles further west then...

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/Minghao_Zhou/status/1298957056020484097



 https://twitter.com/Minghao_Zhou/status/1298971412468764674



 https://twitter.com/Minghao_Zhou/status/1298972939199696896

[PTPatrick]

Not sure why anybody is surprised lake Charles dodgeD the surge bullet. Surge forecasts are tough and always estimates. And you have to overwarn it a bit. Angle of approach and speed certainly helped. My guess is 10-20 miles East with the eye and the story would be vastly different. The winds barely ever became 90 degrees onshore From due south at the mouth of the lake/river . That is , because it passed over calcaceiu lake the worst of the surge thankfully was just east of them. Roughly Grand Chenier East will be where you can tell the most surge was.

You’d rather be hit head on and get time in the eye from a surge perspective with the north gulf geometry. If you are in the east eye wall with the south wind you get pounded with water. Learned that when George hit Mississippi. All the talk was how it wasn’t too bad, we dodged the bullet etc, but meanwhile the East half of Jackson county was drowning. Biloxi/ocean springs surge not bad where they took the north wall. We never got a break in the southerly flow.

Also, nhc accounted for the eye landfall location in their 10:00 surge map. It was orders of magnitude better for lake Charles than the 4:00 one where it could still have hit Sabine Pass...

[Tireman4]

The Houston/Galveston Metro Area dodge a bullet. I want to personally thank all on this board who have and continue to contribute. For the pro and amateur mets, a hearty thank you. This is the third inning of a nine inning game ( or 20 inning like Jason stated). We are on the letter M and the peak month is September, the heart of the Cape Verde season. Be aware. Be vigilant. You have your kits ready. You have your plan worked out.Think of this as a Hurricane Preparedness drill. Our heart and prayers go out to the folks in SWLA and Lake Charles.

[PandaCitrus]

We need a helicopter survey of the area, but so far it appears that Lake Charles had Cat 1/2 sustained winds with Cat 3/4 gusts and the damage seems consistent with this. You need to remember Lake Charles is 30 miles inland and typically the worst winds in a hurricane occur within 1 miles of the immediate coastline in the northeast eyewall. If there were 160mph Cat 5 sustained winds, we will likely never know as they occured over swamp land and only the bayou critters experienced them.

I expect damage to be less extensive than Hurricane Michael. Downtown Panama City was pounded by the western eyewall for hours with no break for the eye and was a coastal city only a few miles from the beach. Looks like Lake Charles had a good break with the eyewall and the southern eyewall was weaker.

I'd be interested in seeing what happened to the little town of Iowa directly east of Lake Charles. That town was in the eastern eyewall for hours with no breaks. The worst damage will probably be there in Iowa.

[FLpanhandle91]

Cat 4 impacts must be super isolated in an area around Cameron and maybe a few miles to its east.

[PandaCitrus]

Yeah, the surge estimates are typically absolutely worst case for your area. I remember during Irma they predicted Naples would be under 15 feet of water but the track shifted to the right just enough. With surge 10 or 15 miles difference can mean everything. I think if the eye hit TX/LA border, Lake Charles likely would have been badly flooded from surge but would have received much less winds as they would have avoided the eyewall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1298985006052732929

[curtadams]

Surge tends to get thrown to the right of an approaching hurricane, and in Laura's case that was into the "instep" of the LA boot, which is almost uninhabited because there's almost no real land there. Have we heard anything about Grand Chenier? It almost may not have gone as far in as with Rita since Rita was throwing water up the Atchafalaya while Laura pitched more into the swamps east of there, which might not allow the water to get as far.

[p1nheadlarry]

We need a helicopter survey of the area, but so far it appears that Lake Charles had Cat 1/2 sustained winds with Cat 3/4 gusts and the damage seems consistent with this. You need to remember Lake Charles is 30 miles inland and typically the worst winds in a hurricane occur within 1 miles of the immediate coastline in the northeast eyewall. If there were 160mph Cat 5 sustained winds, we will likely never know as they occured over swamp land and only the bayou critters experienced them.

I expect damage to be less extensive than Hurricane Michael. Downtown Panama City was pounded by the western eyewall for hours with no break for the eye and was a coastal city only a few miles from the beach. Looks like Lake Charles had a good break with the eyewall and the southern eyewall was weaker.

I'd be interested in seeing what happened to the little town of Iowa directly east of Lake Charles. That town was in the eastern eyewall for hours with no breaks. The worst damage will probably be there in Iowa.

That's not completely accurate. Michael was moving every bit as fast as Laura, if not slightly faster. And I'm not sure about Lake Charles, but as someone very familiar with Tally -> Pcola, Panama City was not built to code. Lots of older structures predating Andrew. I do agree with your point about distance from the coast, it's right on St Andrews Bay (hence the name Bay County). I also think due to Michael's continued RI through landfall as a Cat-5, more Cat-5 gusts mixed down to the surface. Laura seemed to level off just a tad. Hung out ~ 938 hPa from the 7 CDT advisory onward.

[lovingseason2013]

We need a helicopter survey of the area, but so far it appears that Lake Charles had Cat 1/2 sustained winds with Cat 3/4 gusts and the damage seems consistent with this. You need to remember Lake Charles is 30 miles inland and typically the worst winds in a hurricane occur within 1 miles of the immediate coastline in the northeast eyewall. If there were 160mph Cat 5 sustained winds, we will likely never know as they occured over swamp land and only the bayou critters experienced them.

I expect damage to be less extensive than Hurricane Michael. Downtown Panama City was pounded by the western eyewall for hours with no break for the eye and was a coastal city only a few miles from the beach. Looks like Lake Charles had a good break with the eyewall and the southern eyewall was weaker.

I'd be interested in seeing what happened to the little town of Iowa directly east of Lake Charles. That town was in the eastern eyewall for hours with no breaks. The worst damage will probably be there in Iowa.

I think you are correct, plus looking at sat images, Laura does not look near as extreme at landfall as Michael did. Not that damage wont be extensive, just not the same catastrophic damage we saw on Mexico Beach.

[funster]

Chlorine gas? Not good!

https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1298985006052732929

[PandaCitrus]

If I remember correctly, Downtown Panama city never saw the eye. They were in the western eyewall for hours with no break. That makes a difference. All of Lake Charles went inside the eye and had a break.

But we do need an aerial survey. There are plenty of really poor areas in Lake Charles with old housing stock in bad condition. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of damage in the residential neighborhoods, especially older and poorly maintained homes. I also don't know much about the Lake Charles building code but imagine it is worse than Panama City.

We need a helicopter survey of the area, but so far it appears that Lake Charles had Cat 1/2 sustained winds with Cat 3/4 gusts and the damage seems consistent with this. You need to remember Lake Charles is 30 miles inland and typically the worst winds in a hurricane occur within 1 miles of the immediate coastline in the northeast eyewall. If there were 160mph Cat 5 sustained winds, we will likely never know as they occured over swamp land and only the bayou critters experienced them.

I expect damage to be less extensive than Hurricane Michael. Downtown Panama City was pounded by the western eyewall for hours with no break for the eye and was a coastal city only a few miles from the beach. Looks like Lake Charles had a good break with the eyewall and the southern eyewall was weaker.

I'd be interested in seeing what happened to the little town of Iowa directly east of Lake Charles. That town was in the eastern eyewall for hours with no breaks. The worst damage will probably be there in Iowa.

That's not completely accurate. Michael was moving every bit as fast as Laura, if not slightly faster. And I'm not sure about Lake Charles, but as someone very familiar with Tally -> Pcola, Panama City was not built to code. Lots of older structures predating Andrew. I do agree with your point about distance from the coast, it's right on St Andrews Bay (hence the name Bay County). I also think due to Michael's continued RI through landfall as a Cat-5, more Cat-5 gusts mixed down to the surface. Laura seemed to level off just a tad. Hung out ~ 938 hPa from the 7 CDT advisory onward.

[tolakram]

We need aerial views to see the damage. If you were watching Mark Suddeth's Cameron camera last night you know there was surge and a lot of it. As Laura came ashore the water rose over the camera suddenly and knocked it out. I believe the camera was mounted over 8 feet high.

[jlauderdal]

Not bad...NHC's 3.5-day forecast for #Laura landfall was off by ~1 km. wow. https://t.co/f1wmsQynAZ

[p1nheadlarry]

If I remember correctly, Downtown Panama city never saw the eye. They were in the western eyewall for hours with no break. That makes a difference. All of Lake Charles went inside the eye and had a break.

But we do need an aerial survey. There are plenty of really poor areas in Lake Charles with old housing stock in bad condition. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of damage in the residential neighborhoods, especially older and poorly maintained homes. I also don't know much about the Lake Charles building code but imagine it is worse than Panama City.

We need a helicopter survey of the area, but so far it appears that Lake Charles had Cat 1/2 sustained winds with Cat 3/4 gusts and the damage seems consistent with this. You need to remember Lake Charles is 30 miles inland and typically the worst winds in a hurricane occur within 1 miles of the immediate coastline in the northeast eyewall. If there were 160mph Cat 5 sustained winds, we will likely never know as they occured over swamp land and only the bayou critters experienced them.

I expect damage to be less extensive than Hurricane Michael. Downtown Panama City was pounded by the western eyewall for hours with no break for the eye and was a coastal city only a few miles from the beach. Looks like Lake Charles had a good break with the eyewall and the southern eyewall was weaker.

I'd be interested in seeing what happened to the little town of Iowa directly east of Lake Charles. That town was in the eastern eyewall for hours with no breaks. The worst damage will probably be there in Iowa.

That's not completely accurate. Michael was moving every bit as fast as Laura, if not slightly faster. And I'm not sure about Lake Charles, but as someone very familiar with Tally -> Pcola, Panama City was not built to code. Lots of older structures predating Andrew. I do agree with your point about distance from the coast, it's right on St Andrews Bay (hence the name Bay County). I also think due to Michael's continued RI through landfall as a Cat-5, more Cat-5 gusts mixed down to the surface. Laura seemed to level off just a tad. Hung out ~ 938 hPa from the 7 CDT advisory onward.

Oh I see, yes the eye went over the eastern suburbs which were hit even harder. Lower income area.