Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

Temperature anomaly forecast for (Sun. March 24th - Sun. March 31st)

[northjaxpro]

I tell you everytime I get prepared to start planting, Mother Nature throws us a sharp curve ball

Yeah, NDG I happened to see the long range EURO and GFS, as well as the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook last night. Indeed, they show the -AO really tanking toward the end of this month. The Omega/Rex blocking pattern has apparently entrenched itself firmly in place for at least through the end of this month.

So, after a warm-up for the next 5-6 days across the peninsula, unbelievably, it looks like Old Man Winter is coming back for the last week of March. This upcoming cold air mass is coming down straight from the polar region to boot, and despite the March sun angle, it sure looks as if this cold air mass won't moderate too much. It could bring possible freezes into North Florida and unseasonable cold for the rest of the peninsula.

I have been burned enough proclaiming the end of winter. LOL. It is something that it took most of the winter for the -AO pattern to set up. At least it is late March instead of this happening in December or January. Nonetheless, this is still going to bring in a very impressive cold air mass down across the entire Eastern CONUS by the last week in March.

I am just forced to wait until after Easter to plant. Hopefully, spring will set in fully eventually, as it should of course entering April.

[NDG]

The good news this morning is that the last 2 Euro runs, which in my opinion has been doing the best in the 7-10 day range, is delaying any cooler air making it down to the FL Peninsula by next weekend.
The GFS is showing lows in the 30s & 40s across central and north FL for next Sunday morning with highs in the 50s and 60s only that day.

[gsytch]

Keep us posted on this cold spell. So late in the season, it is not good for agriculture in FL. Here in Tampa Bay, freezes do not happen this late BUT the cold can be an issue. Thanks!

[NDG]

Last night's GFS joins the Euro in this weekend staying warm for most of the Peninsula before things really cool down early next week, so a few more days to enjoy the average to above average temps before winter returns in the Spring.

[northjaxpro]

A frontal boundary will stall out right along the Gulf Coast region this upcoming weekend, which should give a good boost to our rain chances across the northern peninsula. There will probably be timing differences with the models with the evolution of this event until we get closer to the weekend. The big kicker will be coming downstream as the models depict a very strong shortwave that will dive southeast from the Intermountain West to the Lower Mississippi Valley region during the weekend timeframe. This will help spawn cyclogenesis to develop just off the SE U.S. coast by Monday and move north-northeast along the coast. At this juncture, there are some differences with the models as you would expect a week out from now as the GFS actually begins to bomb the coastal Low at 168 hours. EURO doesn't really show bombing at 168 hours. Will have to watch this carefully in the coming days. There may be the potential of a major late season winter/early spring storm developing somewhere along the Mid Atlantic coast and possibly affecting the Northeast U.S. next week.


Colder weather will definitely be back next week as the negative Arctic Oscillation pattern really tanks across the Eastern U.S. Looking at the current trends with the EURO, temperatures could be as much as 15-20 degrees below what the average should be for late March in areas of the peninsula starting Tuesday(3/26/13) and continuing through next week.

EURO run (168 hours)

[Sanibel]

Nice dry season downpour here with pools in the backyard. Warm and humid 72*.

[gsytch]

Stop bragging! Total rain in March is .33"....Feb was about an inch. Terribly dry!

Nice dry season downpour here with pools in the backyard. Warm and humid 72*.

[NDG]

You down in S FL lucked out today, we here in Orlando only got just a few sprinkles last night and this morning, barely enough to wet the ground.

[northjaxpro]

Keeping an eye on a large area of storms along a squall line traversing south and east through Georgia ahead of a cold front. These storms bought hail and tornadoes earlier this evening over North Georgia.

I think these storms will run out from under the best forcing dynamics and lose their punch hopefully overnight as they approach the GA/FL border toward sunrise. It looks as if the Jax area probably will get some needed rain from this early tomorrow. Scattered showers and storms should develop across portions of the peninsula during Tuesday with the front approaching the region.

[northjaxpro]

As I expected, the overnight pre-frontal squall line weakened on its approach toward the GA/FL border. That activity also missed the Jax area and shifted offshore. Currently, a band of rain that developed across the Suwannee River Valley and moved east has weakened steadily and is moving across the Jax area currently. Looks as if 1/10 or 1/4 inch is all we will manage this morning at best.

The front will sag into the central peninsula and showers will develop across that region later today. Hopefully some areas down there will get some much needed rain.

As I alluded to earlier on a post yesterday, possibly a very wet pattern setting up for at least the northern and central peninsula heading into this weekend. Then, colder weather sets in next week. I will check out the latest model runs late today regarding next week's situation.

[NDG]

Both GFS and Euro have really backed away from the really cold air to visit FL they were showing a few days ago, or at least in the timing of its visit.
As far as rain it looks like north FL has a better chance for rain this weekend than central FL.
I am hoping to get on some much needed rain later today into tomorrow afternoon, hopefully daytime heating also helps in destabilizing the atmosphere.

[gsytch]

I have noticed the cold backing away, but like you said is it the timing or the intensity?I would like to take the plastic off my greenhouse, but if it will get very chilly I will not. Plastic on this late can lead to overheating unless it is sprayed with cool water during the PM. I can never remember having the plastic on so late in the season. Taking it off means potentially chilly and wet soil for the seedlings and cuttings. Not good for them. Besides, next week is my spring break and the last thing I want is colder air! Keep us posted~!

[NDG]

IMO I think it will be ok for you to go ahead in removing the plastic off the green house, unless lows in the 40s is too cold for your plants, as far as rain, we have not been the pattern for excessive rain

[northjaxpro]

The models have diverged quite a bit since I saw them yesterday morning. The latest GFS now is positioning a storm to develop across the Central Plains and move east over the OH valley area Monday, as opposed to earlier runs positioning the storm closer to the Mid-Atlantic coast. EURO keeps the shortwave energy elongated and weaker initially than the GFS, moving it along farther south across the Southeast U.S. region and then eastward developing Low Pressure off the NC coast.

The GFS solution would shift the warm sector much farther north as well. It is interesting how much they have diverged in the past 24 hours. We will see if they will come to a better consensus over the next couple of days. I still am leaning toward the EURO solution with the shortwave energy providing our region with the potential of seeing heavy rain this weekend.

gsytch, at least you have started your planting. I have yet to plant the tomatoes here because of the cold snaps and frost we have had for much of this month. I am holding off to see what the models show with regards to see just how cold it will get next week across North Florida. It will cool down for sure next week, but it is a question how cold. I am hoping we don't have temps dipping to near freezing any more this season. But, as it stands currently, that is still up it in the air. But, I am staying cautiously optimistic about that.

It will cool down briefly here beginning tomorrow through Friday morning as an upper air disturbance moving southeast from TX this evening will interact with the stalled front currently down across the Central FL peninsula. Thus, overrunning precip will occur tomorrow with max temps only in the 60s here on the cooler side of the front. The shortwave moves through during tomorrow night to clear it out and it will cool down. Projected currently to drop to lower 40s here, with upper 30s in the colder interior areas. Hopefully the wind will stay elevated enough to keep frost from forming with this cool snap on Thursday morning. The wind will get light by Friday morning, but I am hopeful that mid to upper level cloudiness streaming ahead of the next shortwave coming downstream will help to keep temps up on Friday morning to prevent the formation of frost.

[gsytch]

Started? It never stops here. My current tomato crop is from last August. They keep growing all winter long. This is the new year's crop. And all my plants grow under shade. The greenhouse is just for cuttings, seedlings, and the rarer orchid that likes it warmer. All else is out all winter. It rarely freezes hard here. Even the brutal winter 4 years ago it all was under frost cloth and orchids were fine. But, the cuttings like it warm and if it gets cold they stop growing or rot - hence why I want it warm!

[northjaxpro]

OK gsytch. I thought you were a seasonable planter like me. Living here in Jax , have to wait a bit to plant the tomatoes. The frost absolutely really damages them, even when I have done much to cover them with plastic over the years. Usually, I start planting in early March, which usually we typically have already had our last freeze on average here, which is in late February. However, this season with the colder than normal March, I have had to wait much longer. As I alluded to earlier, I may have to wait until around Easter to finally plant the tomatoes. That will be all dependent how cold it gets next week concerning that.

[FireRat]

Accuweather forecasts for inland South FL are keeping it about same intensity coolness as forecast days ago, low 70s for highs and high 40s for lows, but starting on 3/27...1 day later than previously forecast. Pretty interesting end to the Winter and start to Spring season imo.

[gsytch]

As an FYI - frost cloth ( a weave not the "planket" type in big box) protects down to 28F if covered during the day. It absorbs and releases heat from the ground. Covering only does that, cover from frost not cold. You can purchase it inexpensively on the internet. The idea is to tent that plants. I use small office clips to secure. I see Thurs and Fri AM will be chilly again. Enough?

:uarrow: OK gsytch. I thought you were a seasonable planter like me. Living here in Jax , have to wait a bit to plant the tomatoes. The frost absolutely really damages them, even when I have done much to cover them with plastic over the years. Usually, I start planting in early March, which usually we typically have already had our last freeze on average here, which is in late February. However, this season with the colder than normal March, I have had to wait much longer. As I alluded to earlier, I may have to wait until around Easter to finally plant the tomatoes. That will be all dependent how cold it gets next week concerning that.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks gsytch for that tip. I will consider using frost cloth. Someone else at Lowe's also referenced that product to me. Because I have had numerous frosty mornings this March, frost cloth would certainly be a great help. I have had rotting of a few of my plants occur because of frost, despite my methods of protecting them with plastic covering in the past.

We have had cold snaps to occur in March, but this has been as prolonged a period of below normal temps I can ever recall this late in the season.

Some much needed rain is on tap for the area today. Rain should begin late morning here and continue until the early evening. Cooler temps today with temps getting no higher than lower 60s today and again tomorrow. NWS projecting patchy areas of frost interior areas Friday morning with upper 30s colder spots. Still am hoping some upper level cloudiness can somehow help temps stay up just a bit on Friday morning and prevent frost from forming. However, I would not bet on that happening. We'll see.