ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stephen23]

Last 3 recon fixes have shown the average heading to be 317 degrees. If that was to keep up all the way to coast without any north turn before landfall then we still would be up as far north as West Palm Beach. Of course there could be more of a west movement later on or then the north movement expected by models.

['CaneFreak]

My argument is purely from the increased angular momentum prospective. The stronger the storm, the greater the angular momentum, the more westward it would track. But of course it is all going to depend on the forward speed too. A lot of factors at play here.

Recon fixes continue to show a NW motion.

I don't wanna drop the word "wish-casting" but there's a lot of people wanting to pull this into Miami-Dade, primarily because of the HRRR mesoscale run.

I'm not doing it just because of HRRR, historical patterns and current conditions just tell me that it is going to Miami-Dade.

[Steve]

Recon fixes continue to show a NW motion.

I don't wanna drop the word "wish-casting" but there's a lot of people wanting to pull this into Miami-Dade, primarily because of the HRRR mesoscale run.

I'm not doing it just because of HRRR, historical patterns and current conditions just tell me that it is going to Miami-Dade.

But the Hurricane Center and Model Guidance, as well as actual current motion from aircraft reconnaissance, doesn't. This storm is on track.

Agreed. But I don't see it as -removed-. I'm not going very far out on a limb to say that this has been one of the better tracked storms in the history of this or the original Storm2k. I think most members have been pretty decent about an unknown threat. At the same time, you don't want to come off as territorial either in St. Lucie County. I think you legitimately have a more realistic shot at the eye-wall than Miami.

[RL3AO]

If NWS Miami wanted the hurricane warning extended southward, it would literally be a 50 foot walk and they'd tell the specialist and it would be so.

[Steve]

what happens if Matthew loops around and give some sections of Florida round 2 of hurricane conditions

Florida election polls can be thrown out the window. Also, more people pay and some people pay more.

[GeneratorPower]

If NWS Miami wanted the hurricane warning extended southward, it would literally be a 50 foot walk and they'd tell the specialist and it would be so.

Putting Miami-Dade under a HW would almost certainly result in a few deaths and injuries. Evacuations are known to be dangerous, on the roads and elsewhere. Therefore it is prudent to NOT warn an area if it isn't needed.

[Blinhart]

If NWS Miami wanted the hurricane warning extended southward, it would literally be a 50 foot walk and they'd tell the specialist and it would be so.

Putting Miami-Dade under a HW would almost certainly result in a few deaths and injuries. Evacuations are known to be dangerous, on the roads and elsewhere. Therefore it is prudent to NOT warn an area if it isn't needed.

But it is needed by my unofficial reckoning.

[Sanibel]

I have to remark that NHC has been razor blade sharp on what has to be one of their more hair-raising track predictions with serious consequences for the slightest deviation.

[Blown Away]

Written by University of Florida Athletics

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- We are working closely with local, state and University officials as well as the Southeastern Conference office to monitor the progress of Hurricane Matthew and its potential impact on campus and the safety of the fans.

As of 5 p.m. on Wednesday, the game is still scheduled to be played on Saturday at 11 a.m. CT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. A final decision on the start time of the game will be made by 12 p.m. CT on Thursday as we continue to monitor the storm.

The game will not be moved out of Gainesville.

This is probably one of the most reckless and irresponsible decisions that I have ever seen from a public official. This decision will divert possibly a thousand first responders away from where they will desperately be needed. University of Florida President W. Kent Fuchs should be immediately fired for incompetence and reckless endangerment. Thoughts?

As long as Canes/FSU is not cancelled...

[GeneratorPower]

If NWS Miami wanted the hurricane warning extended southward, it would literally be a 50 foot walk and they'd tell the specialist and it would be so.

Putting Miami-Dade under a HW would almost certainly result in a few deaths and injuries. Evacuations are known to be dangerous, on the roads and elsewhere. Therefore it is prudent to NOT warn an area if it isn't needed.

But it is needed by my unofficial reckoning.

I can understand that viewpoint. It's not necessarily wrong. But if Matthew goes north as predicted it will be a good thing that Miami-Dade wasn't HW'd. However if it goes south...it will be an epic fail. So yes. It is playing with fire. But I think you're burned either way.

[stephen23]

Eye finally starting to look a little bit better.

[swampgator92]

The latest HRRR has a bullseye to Palm Beach County with major effects in Broward and Miami-Dade.

 https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/783878491708203008

[AJC3]

There is a lot more than you realize that goes into it.

Not really.

Lol. Considering that's what I do, I should know.

Me too.

[ronyan]

Winds increasing at Kemps Bay on Andros Island, could take a direct hit from Matthew. The CDO is over it now.

[Sanibel]

Core coming in to view on Miami Long Range radar...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I would never think anyone knows more than the NHC, but I felt at least the Hurricane watch should have been posted just in case. There would be no harm in that if the storm went a little north as expected, no loss.

[RL3AO]

Current motion is about 320 degrees. 310 might mean WPB. 300 might mean Miami. Very very tight margins.

[mpic]

I would never think anyone knows more than the NHC, but I felt at least the Hurricane watch should have been posted just in case. There would be no harm in that if the storm went a little north as expected, no loss.

Unless it puts thousands more evacuating for no reason and people die because of it

[GeneratorPower]

I would never think anyone knows more than the NHC, but I felt at least the Hurricane watch should have been posted just in case. There would be no harm in that if the storm went a little north as expected, no loss.

You're not reading prior posts. Even a Hurricane Watch sets in motion a LOT of emergency operations. It has risk. It is not free. There is definitely a loss when it's not needed.

[HDGator]

I just hope you fellow Storm2k'ers in the path are prepared and you have your neighbors prepared. I've had countless conversations today with people that weren't putting up shutters or only putting up shutters on one/two sides of their house. This storm may be one of the worst in the past century and some still aren't taking it seriously. We're sitting in the path of a storm 'poised' to build from a Cat 3 while most still see the fat thin line off our coast that won't disturb them. For those in the path, take care and button things down, the storm is coming.