Texas Winter 2014-2015

[wxman57]

There are 2 cold fronts across Texas this morning. One is near Waco - that's last week's front which moved north as a warm front yesterday and is now moving back southward. The new Arctic front is identified by strong northerly winds and sharply colder temperatures. It just moved south of the Red River.

The long-range GFS is clearly wrong. It has 20F below-normal temps across Texas March 19th. Surely the temperatures will be in the 80s at that time...

[aggiecutter]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
328 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108-109-111-112-
041730-
/O.UPG.KSHV.WS.A.0004.150305T0200Z-150305T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.W.0005.150305T0000Z-150305T1500Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-MORRIS-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...IDABEL...
CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA
328 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TO
SLEET AND SNOW AS COLD AIR ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADS
OVER THE AREA.

* TIMING...WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND THEN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH
WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm not sure if I shouldn't be suprised that EWX has not issued a Dense Fog Advisory for right now or if I should be shocked. It's so foggy here on the southside that I can't even see more than 2 houses down from mine and can barely make out the lights from the house across the steet. The street lights have dissappeared completely, there is no light reaching the ground at this point. This is ridiculous!

This is one of those times that if I was alone outside I'd be pretty nervous and creeped out. Way too spooky..

Currently have all the lights off staring out the window scanning for freaky things to materialize out of nowhere lol.

Haha! Yeah, it was creepy this morning! Drizzly and foggy drive. I was out with the dog early this morning and felt like I was in that movie "THE FOG."

[Ntxw]

There are 2 cold fronts across Texas this morning. One is near Waco - that's last week's front which moved north as a warm front yesterday and is now moving back southward. The new Arctic front is identified by strong northerly winds and sharply colder temperatures. It just moved south of the Red River.

The long-range GFS is clearly wrong. It has 20F below-normal temps across Texas March 19th. Surely the temperatures will be in the 80s at that time...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_52.png

Enjoy the false spring next week. El Nino Springs likes to extend cold through Easter (i.e. 1997, 2007, 2010). Final week of March and First week of April is our last stand before you can take over! The plants will likely feel it.

[SouthernMet]

6Z GFS says cold rain in Austin with surface temps 33-34 during the precip. As the precip ends Thursday morning the air column aloft cools enough for sleet. 6Z NAM is warmer than the GFS for the Austin area. 00Z Euro drops Austin's temps to around 33 on Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, I went out to get the paper at 5:30 this morning and enjoyed the low of 70 degrees.

Sounds like Austin is going to dodge any troubles.

If you believe gfs/nam nail the temps and handle the arctic airmass 100%...

RGEM has upper 20's & SREF has 29-30

[weatherdude1108]

See no reason to deviate from thoughts yesterday about Austin's weather tonight into tomorrow. The lack of watches or warnings from our local NWS offices is unexplainable. Unfortunately the public will be shocked in the next 24 hours here and it could have easily been avoided.

This should be the worst winter weather we've seen in several years.

I wouldn't necessarily mind a ridiculous snowfall amount; I can live without the ice forecast.

Exactly! I would take 12 inches of snow over a quarter inch of ice any day. Ice is more treacherous and slippery. Snow has more traction at least initially before it melts and refreezes, and you can play in it and throw snowballs!

[Texas Snowman]

Sounds like Austin is going to dodge any troubles.

Doesn't sound like PORTASTORM and the PWC headquarters staff agrees with the idea that ATX will dodge any troubles. I guess we'll know in 24 hours.

[veedub63]

See no reason to deviate from thoughts yesterday about Austin's weather tonight into tomorrow. The lack of watches or warnings from our local NWS offices is unexplainable. Unfortunately the public will be shocked in the next 24 hours here and it could have easily been avoided.

This should be the worst winter weather we've seen in several years.

I wouldn't necessarily mind a ridiculous snowfall amount; I can live without the ice forecast.

Exactly! I would take 12 inches of snow over a quarter inch of ice any day. Ice is more treacherous and slippery. Snow has more traction at least initially before it melts and refreezes, and you can play in it and throw snowballs!

Oh yes! I'm probably too old, but I've promised the kids we will "tube" down the 10th fairway at the Highlands Course here in Lago if the appropriate winter weather strikes. This storm doesn't look promising for that activity.

[aggiecutter]

6z GFS snowfall totals:

[Tireman4]

There are 2 cold fronts across Texas this morning. One is near Waco - that's last week's front which moved north as a warm front yesterday and is now moving back southward. The new Arctic front is identified by strong northerly winds and sharply colder temperatures. It just moved south of the Red River.

The long-range GFS is clearly wrong. It has 20F below-normal temps across Texas March 19th. Surely the temperatures will be in the 80s at that time...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_52.png

Ha. Ha. Ha. No...

[aggiecutter]

12z NAM snowfall totals:

[Tireman4]

Ok, question. Is the front moving faster than expected, slower than expected or right on time? Just curious...

[longhornweather]

Seems like the models have done quite a bit of flip-flopping regarding the Austin area. I'm not sure we will really know the extent of this until it is actually happening. That being said, it is shocking that there have been no warnings or even advisories issued here at this point. Seems that at least posting a Watch yesterday would have been wise.

[SouthernMet]

Ok, question. Is the front moving faster than expected, slower than expected or right on time? Just curious...

Looks right on time imo.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm,

When do you think freezing temps will start in Williamson County?

I would think around midnight or shortly thereafter.

[Portastorm]

Sounds like Austin is going to dodge any troubles.

Doesn't sound like PORTASTORM and the PWC headquarters staff agrees with the idea that ATX will dodge any troubles. I guess we'll know in 24 hours.

Oh, I don't agree at all. If you folks want to hang your hat on a model run which has been an anomaly compared to its previous runs ... a model run which is not based on any new ingested data, you go right ahead. Good luck with that. Until I see the RGEM and SREF and HRRR showing temps not going below freezing, I'm staying with my forecast. We've all see how horrible the GFS has been on temps in the last week. If you don't know about it, then you've been under a rock.

[SouthernMet]

Seems like the models have done quite a bit of flip-flopping regarding the Austin area. I'm not sure we will really know the extent of this until it is actually happening. That being said, it is shocking that there have been no warnings or even advisories issued here at this point. Seems that at least posting a Watch yesterday would have been wise.

EWX said one would be coming later. RGEM & SREF have not flip flopped on temps and gfs/nam have not been great on temps with arctic fronts this season, it's not atx cancel yet.

[stormlover2013]

models have struggled with this the last 3 days, I think this is going to be a surprise if the cold air is in place

[wxman57]

On the 6Z GFS & NAM, there is a pronounced warm nose over the D-FW area until around midnight tonight (GFS) or 3am (NAM). At that time, the precip column falls below freezing aloft. Precipitation comes to an end a few hours later. This would suggest rain/freezing rain and sleet this evening changing to snow early Thursday morning before the precip ends.

Looks like the NWS office agrees:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR DFW...WINTER STORM WARNING...

CONCERNS...CEILINGS/VSBY TRENDS...WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS...
IN THE METROPLEX...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND
00Z (6 PM CST) AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. ICE
ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
ON ELEVATED SURFACES. SLEET WILL BEGIN AROUND 03Z (9 PM CST).
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE SLEET SHOWERS...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING ONE INCH. THESE BURSTS
OF SLEET WOULD QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON MAIN ROADWAYS. SOME
SLEET/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z (MIDNIGHT CST). PRECIP WILL
END BY 09Z (3 AM CST). EVENTUAL RISE ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF SNOW/SLEET/ICE COVER.
IF AMOUNTS EXCEED ONE INCH...TEMPS MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...
DURING AND BEYOND WINTRY PRECIP...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY TOP
25KTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED TO INCLUDE GUSTS OF 35KTS. WIND
CHILLS THIS EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE DUE NORTH.

[longhornweather]

Seems like the models have done quite a bit of flip-flopping regarding the Austin area. I'm not sure we will really know the extent of this until it is actually happening. That being said, it is shocking that there have been no warnings or even advisories issued here at this point. Seems that at least posting a Watch yesterday would have been wise.

EWX said one would be coming later. RGEM & SREF have not flip flopped on temps and gfs/nam have not been great on temps with arctic fronts this season, it's not atx cancel yet.

I was referring more to the GFS/NAM as far as the flip flopping goes. I know they are saying they will issue something later today, just seems like a Watch could have been issued leading up to that. Just an opinion.