Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

As of today DFW for Feb is -11.3F below normal. It won't stay that way but lets see if we can finish -4/-5F for the month to crack the top 10 season as a whole.

[Tejas89]

DFW has been below freezing since very early Wednesday morning (3 a.m. or so). A winter to remember for sure. Too bad moisture was lacking with all the cold air this season (for the most part).

After next week's shot, FW discussion mentions a pattern change, with the occasional pacific front through mid-month.

[ravyrn]

Yes yes the end is near, snow and cold is unheard of in March. We will close the coldest winter wall to wall in a long time in Mid February!
Retrograding trough in Alaska is a death call, bring on a hot spring and summer inducing more drought and heat! Time to move on to other threads.

I refuse to throw in the towel until after the 2nd week of March. It's hardly past the first week of February! The end of February may very well hold a surprise or two.

[Ntxw]

Yes yes the end is near, snow and cold is unheard of in March. We will close the coldest winter wall to wall in a long time in Mid February!
Retrograding trough in Alaska is a death call, bring on a hot spring and summer inducing more drought and heat! Time to move on to other threads.

I refuse to throw in the towel until after the 2nd week of March. It's hardly past the first week of February! The end of February may very well hold a surprise or two.

I was being sarcastic . I haven't fallen into the abyss that Portastorm has found his way into, unfortunately. There's no denying the pattern will shift to unfavorable from the 15th to 25th, and likely true arctic air probably won't find it's way this far south until next winter but doesn't mean the end of cold and anomalous winter storm chances. NE Pac warm pool is still there and believe or not...is restrengthening after being quiet the past 2 weeks. So it's unlikely any warm regime has staying power the next month, or two, or three.

[ravyrn]

I was being sarcastic . I haven't fallen into the abyss that Portastorm has found his way into, unfortunately. There's no denying the pattern will shift to unfavorable from the 15th to 25th, and likely true arctic air probably won't find it's way this far south until next winter but doesn't mean the end of cold and anomalous winter storm chances. NE Pac warm pool is still there and believe or not...is restrengthening after being quiet the past 2 weeks. So it's unlikely any warm regime has staying power the next month, or two, or three.

10-4. Sarcasm doesn't always show in text on a computer screen. Indeed, it is quite unfortunate to see Porta deep in the abyss. He certainly delivered on his quote in my sig, even though if he missed out on most of those events, as did I. I just got back from the store and noticed a trace or sleet or snow on my car so I guess it changed over from the drizzle we've had off and on today at some point earlier this evening. I don't mind a progressive pattern for a bit. We could use a warm up after the cold temps we've experienced in recent weeks. Maybe mother nature can work a miracle and give areas from Austin ENE towards my neck of woods a taste of winter as we've either been north or south of the events this year.

PS: Maybe we could start a fundraiser to send Porta on a ski trip to help him out of the abyss and raise his spirits

[KeriCarter]

Any photos out of Texarkana?

I'm trying to get an image posted but I'm on an ipad and can't figure out how to retrieve the link from imageshack. Help? Or is it impossible?

[Ralph's Weather]

It snowed here for a couple hours with slight accumulations then turned to sleet then rain before ending this evening. Liking forward to a nice weekend and another fun round next week possibly.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

My oh my Dallas got mighty quiet:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57jDSXk9Q84

[SouthernMet]

shifting gears to our next system (tomorrow night- tuesday night) gfs/nam have consistently showed more of ice/freezing rain event than snow, which is concerning, as ice storms are harder on driving conditions & power lines.

Probability outlook for freezing rain 45-48 hours & 48-51 is very concerning to say the least, as they are advertising high chances of freezing rain for most of north, west & central texas. : http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwprobs/zr ... php?fday=3

[Snowman67]

shifting gears to our next system (tomorrow night- tuesday night) gfs/nam have consistently showed more of ice/freezing rain event than snow, which is concerning, as ice storms are harder on driving conditions & power lines.

Hpc outlook for freezing rain 45-48 hours & 48-51 is very concerning to say the least, as they are advertising high chances of freezing rain for most of north, west & central texas. : http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwprobs/zr ... php?fday=3

I think the highest chance on that map for the 3 hr period 45-48hours (dark green) only equates to 30- 40% chance according to the legend above the graphic.

[TheProfessor]

Dies it look like this could be a big ice storm for North Texas if the models are misjudging the temperatures on the warm side?

[KatDaddy]

Hey Professor, did you get any snow yesterday in Roanoke?

[SouthernMet]

shifting gears to our next system (tomorrow night- tuesday night) gfs/nam have consistently showed more of ice/freezing rain event than snow, which is concerning, as ice storms are harder on driving conditions & power lines.

Hpc outlook for freezing rain 45-48 hours & 48-51 is very concerning to say the least, as they are advertising high chances of freezing rain for most of north, west & central texas. : http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwprobs/zr ... php?fday=3

I think the highest chance on that map for the 3 hr period 45-48hours (dark green) only equates to 30- 40% chance according to the legend above the graphic.

you're correct but that's pretty high for a probability outlook. they are blended by gfs/nam/euro/sref

[Portastorm]

Per the WPC's Winter Weather desk by 12z Tuesday (6 am), the western Hill Country and portions of northeast Texas (Marshall, Longview) appear to be in high likelihood areas for freezing rain.



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[Portastorm]

SouthernMet, please check your PMs. Thanks!

[Meteorcane]

Although not entirely relevant I would just like to point out a fun fact.

OKC has averaged a high temperature of 30 degrees through 7 days in February (about 20 degrees below normal)
Last year through 7 days in February the average high was 61 degrees, some very interesting annual variability

[TheProfessor]

Hey Professor, did you get any snow yesterday in Roanoke?

Unfortunately I didn't.

[aggiecutter]

Per the WPC's Winter Weather desk by 12z Tuesday (6 am), the western Hill Country and portions of northeast Texas (Marshall, Longview) appear to be in high likelihood areas for freezing rain.

http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/7818/qzb.gif

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GFS 12z output has mostly sleet for the Texarkana area for the Monday-Tuesday storm. However, I would caution that the GFS was abysmal last week. We had an ice-storm on Monday and snow yesterday that wasn't even hinted at by the GFS just 24hrs prior to the events.

[dhweather]

The 2800 hour GFS doesn't have a cat 5 in the gulf.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Until all cold air is routed from western Canada, cold will return to areas that try to warm up. Any warm up day 11-16 likely
to reverse.