CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[wxwatcher91]

Wilma's EWRC after the record min pressure:

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA
TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.
HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL
COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS
SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR.

----

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER
VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT
WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS
WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

----

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT
PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST
ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT
SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER
WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL.
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

----

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892
MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 140 KT. AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER
5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS...
ONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND
FIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO
REINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN. WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE
YUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

----

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT WILMA HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 892 MB INSIDE THE 4 N
MI WIDE EYE...ALONG WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140-150 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED. ADDITIONALLY...A 00Z SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE
INNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED AS A 40 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED
TO 135 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE WILMA
AROUND 05Z-06Z.

WILMA SHOULD UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR. THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE PREMISE THAT WILMA WILL RE-INTENSIFY WHEN THE CYCLE IS OVER.
THERE IS A CHANCE WILMA COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE ENDS.

----

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

AS ANTICIPATED...WILMA IS GOING THROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN
EYEWALL CYCLE. THIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS
FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH REPORTED EXCELLENT RADAR
PRESENTATION OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 4 AND 40 N MI IN DIAMETER
RESPECTIVELY. THE PLANE ALSO OBSERVED TWO MAXIMUM WIND BANDS...ONE
WITH WINDS OF 121 KNOTS...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 903 MB MEASURED
BY A SONDE...BUT WITH 23 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE COULD
THEN BE A FEW MILLIBARS LOWER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS SPECTACULAR AS IT WAS 12 TO 18 HOURS
AGO AND IN FACT...THE EYE IS OBSCURED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWN TO 130 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE AN OVERESTIMATE
SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 121 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WE
ARE ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION.

WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHEN AND IF THE STRENGTHENING PHASE OF THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN. SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THE
FORMATION OF A LARGE EYE LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THERE WILL BE INCREASING WIND SHEAR. WILMA SHOULD THEN BEGIN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND.

----

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE'S
HIGHEST WINDS ALREADY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.

----

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

THERE IS VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND REPORTS FROM A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA IS BEGINNING TO
RESTRENGTHEN. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KT...AND THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 125 KT IN THE NORTH
EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 130 KT.

----

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEFORE 00Z INDICATED
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF WILMA HAD RISEN TO 923 MB...AND THE
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 130-140 KT.
SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVED EYE PRESENTATION
AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER..ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 130 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE WILMA
AROUND 05Z.

----

So Wilma's EWRC took much longer than Katrina's and resulted in considerable weakening due to the very tight inner eyewall.

[KBBOCA]

I just read this morning of two drowning deaths in Trinidad -- folks caught in Dean's surf.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/trinidad.shtml

And still not a word from Martinique. Agree it's troubling.

[Tireman4]

Agreed. It is never too late to start on the checklist. That will be my job today.

[jhamps10]

its not going west... on this heading, it would crash right into Port Au Prince and kill tens of thousands... I think I'd take the US hit in comparison

even if it goes south of Port Au Prince, it would most likely kill thousands. I hate to say it Derek, but I agree I would rather see it hit the US than come real, real close to Haiti.

[Normandy]

Jamaica is the benchmark. You don't even have to look at models anymore. If it crosses north of Jamaica then lookout Texas. South of Jamaica...viva la rassa!

I disagree.
If it passes south of Jamaica, Brownsville/Border hit is likely.
If it passes north of Jamaica, Matagorda and up might be at risk.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I'd be intersted to know the effect of all the dry air leaving the arena here. All along the dry air has been to the N and NW of the storm. The frictional component, mass etc. seems to get pretty deep into fluid dynamics, but I am wondering the effect (pros?) on track.

Also the ULL and trough coming dwon over Texas out 3 days don't seem to have much effect if any on the GFS and other model solutions. The GFDL may be reacting a little hence being a N outlier from run to run.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Thw synoptics just don't look like a solid "ride the ridge" setup for a deep cane to me. Theres too much troughiness, and that ULL. I'd be ready to boogie if I lived from the keys all the way to B-ville at least into the next 3 days.

[Starburst]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181241
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 13 20070818
123100 1402N 06836W 6967 03130 0029 +090 +065 256037 038 035 005 00
123130 1402N 06831W 6967 03127 0028 +090 +066 256038 038 034 005 00
123200 1401N 06829W 6967 03127 0027 +090 +071 259037 038 034 005 00
123230 1401N 06827W 6968 03127 0029 +090 +063 256038 039 032 005 00
123300 1401N 06825W 6967 03127 0028 +090 +062 256038 038 031 005 00
123330 1401N 06823W 6965 03128 0026 +091 +063 254038 039 031 005 00
123400 1401N 06821W 6967 03127 0024 +090 +065 251038 038 031 005 00
123430 1401N 06819W 6967 03127 0027 +090 +073 253038 038 029 005 00
123500 1401N 06816W 6968 03126 0021 +094 +068 253037 037 029 004 00
123530 1401N 06814W 6965 03130 0020 +094 +068 251039 041 029 005 00
123600 1401N 06812W 6967 03127 0021 +090 +070 248041 041 029 005 00
123630 1401N 06810W 6965 03127 0019 +095 +067 251041 041 027 005 00
123700 1401N 06808W 6967 03126 0022 +090 +072 251041 042 030 004 03
123730 1401N 06806W 6967 03125 0024 +090 +073 249042 044 028 005 03
123800 1400N 06804W 6967 03126 0026 +089 +075 241043 044 029 005 00
123830 1400N 06801W 6967 03126 0024 +090 +073 238043 044 029 005 00
123900 1400N 06759W 6967 03126 0026 +087 +077 235045 045 031 005 00
123930 1400N 06757W 6965 03126 0025 +086 +076 237046 046 030 006 00
124000 1359N 06755W 6968 03122 0023 +088 +081 237045 046 031 005 00
124030 1359N 06753W 6967 03125 0020 +092 +072 236043 045 031 006 00
$$

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 12:41Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 13
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
12:31:00 14.03N 68.60W 696.7 mb 3,130 m 1002.9 mb From 256° (WSW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 35 kts 5 mm/hr
12:31:30 14.03N 68.52W 696.7 mb 3,127 m 1002.8 mb From 256° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 34 kts 5 mm/hr
12:32:00 14.02N 68.48W 696.7 mb 3,127 m 1002.7 mb From 259° (W) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 34 kts 5 mm/hr
12:32:30 14.02N 68.45W 696.8 mb 3,127 m 1002.9 mb From 256° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 32 kts 5 mm/hr
12:33:00 14.02N 68.42W 696.7 mb 3,127 m 1002.8 mb From 256° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
12:33:30 14.02N 68.38W 696.5 mb 3,128 m 1002.6 mb From 254° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
12:34:00 14.02N 68.35W 696.7 mb 3,127 m 1002.4 mb From 251° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
12:34:30 14.02N 68.32W 696.7 mb 3,127 m 1002.7 mb From 253° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 29 kts 5 mm/hr
12:35:00 14.02N 68.27W 696.8 mb 3,126 m 1002.1 mb From 253° (WSW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 29 kts 4 mm/hr
12:35:30 14.02N 68.23W 696.5 mb 3,130 m 1002.0 mb From 251° (WSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 29 kts 5 mm/hr
12:36:00 14.02N 68.20W 696.7 mb 3,127 m 1002.1 mb From 248° (WSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 29 kts 5 mm/hr
12:36:30 14.02N 68.17W 696.5 mb 3,127 m 1001.9 mb From 251° (WSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 27 kts 5 mm/hr
12:37:00 14.02N 68.13W 696.7 mb 3,126 m 1002.2 mb From 251° (WSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 30 kts* 4 mm/hr*
12:37:30 14.02N 68.10W 696.7 mb 3,125 m 1002.4 mb From 249° (WSW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 28 kts* 5 mm/hr*
12:38:00 14.00N 68.07W 696.7 mb 3,126 m 1002.6 mb From 241° (WSW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 29 kts 5 mm/hr
12:38:30 14.00N 68.02W 696.7 mb 3,126 m 1002.4 mb From 238° (WSW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 29 kts 5 mm/hr
12:39:00 14.00N 67.98W 696.7 mb 3,126 m 1002.6 mb From 235° (SW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
12:39:30 14.00N 67.95W 696.5 mb 3,126 m 1002.5 mb From 237° (WSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
12:40:00 13.98N 67.92W 696.8 mb 3,122 m 1002.3 mb From 237° (WSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
12:40:30 13.98N 67.88W 696.7 mb 3,125 m 1002.0 mb From 236° (SW/WSW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 31 kts 6 mm/hr
At 12:31:00Z (first observation), the observation was 319 miles (514 km) to the SSE (164°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
At 12:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 329 miles (530 km) to the SSW (202°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

[hiflyer]

There was discussion earlier in the week that the islands of Martinique, St Lucia and all would have minor problems as they were used to it...turns out after at least 3 deaths and roofs blowing off hospitals plus widespread reports of mudslides and flooding that it was not the case.

Jamaica, being a bigger and higher version, could get nailed with Dean as a 4 to 5. Have seen one post from a hotel operator elsewhere that tourists are still coming into Jamaica while Air Jamaica is running extra sections to get tourists out.

Looking at flight activity for Cayman it looks like wholesale evacuation of non residents is going on...it's like an air force of biz jets. Of course, being the financial and banking center that it is it inflates the average median income of 50k somewhat...the majority of natives are in the service industry on Cayman and are not the passengers on those bizjets leaving now and were the ones stranded during the last storm asking for help.

For Grand Cayman
http://flightaware.com/live/airport/MWCR

For Jamaica
http://flightaware.com/live/airport/MKJP
or
http://flightaware.com/live/airport/MKJS

[tolakram]

If you look at that loop, though, you can see that Dean is now his own weather system and is starting to push things out of the way. Finally that low is moving west. I'm not 100% sure what it means, but I know people were waiting for the low to start moving and it has.

[KBBOCA]

Derek, what about Eastern Cuba. I've seen watches for W. Cuba, but if Dean goes north of Jamaica, then Cuba gets the dirty side of the storm, and that's not something that's been much talked about before. That said, Cuba is usually impressive in their hurricane preparedness... so I assume they're taking the threat seriously.

[O Town]

[drezee]

Since the last recon, Dean has been moving at an angle of 293. If contiued would move N of JAM.

[hial2]

its not going west... on this heading, it would crash right into Port Au Prince and kill tens of thousands... I think I'd take the US hit in comparison

Admirable statement...Selfish sinful human being that I am,I would rather it hit anywhere but where my family would be in harm's way..and that is the U.S..

[cheezyWXguy]

Dean is nowhere near as strong as Wilma, and his eye is also less well formed. When Dean finally decides to go through an ERC, I expect one simalar to Emily's, since they are about the same strength (though Dean is somewhat stronger now than Emily was before her ERC), same size, and headed in the same direction, at about the same speed. I would say we see some weakening to about cat 3-low cat 4 at highest, but the winds will really bounce back

[Starburst]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181251
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 14 20070818
124100 1359N 06751W 6969 03125 0018 +095 +069 237041 041 032 005 00
124130 1358N 06749W 6964 03131 0028 +087 +076 243042 042 032 007 00
124200 1358N 06747W 6965 03132 0035 +085 +079 241041 042 033 006 00
124230 1358N 06745W 6968 03131 0041 +081 +079 234042 043 031 006 00
124300 1357N 06743W 6967 03135 0041 +084 +075 233043 043 032 005 00
124330 1357N 06741W 6968 03135 0044 +080 +079 227044 044 030 006 00
124400 1357N 06739W 6969 03135 0050 +079 +079 223041 041 031 006 00
124430 1356N 06737W 6966 03138 0048 +081 +077 218041 042 035 006 03
124500 1357N 06735W 6965 03141 0043 +085 +072 216044 045 035 006 00
124530 1357N 06733W 6969 03136 0041 +085 +074 211044 044 032 005 00
124600 1358N 06731W 6964 03139 0043 +085 +058 210045 045 033 004 00
124630 1358N 06728W 6967 03139 0045 +084 +065 210046 046 034 005 00
124700 1358N 06726W 6972 03133 0046 +085 +072 210046 046 031 005 00
124730 1359N 06724W 6964 03142 0049 +081 +076 211046 046 030 005 00
124800 1359N 06722W 6971 03135 0050 +079 +079 210045 046 030 005 00
124830 1359N 06720W 6967 03138 0049 +080 +080 213046 047 029 005 00
124900 1400N 06718W 6965 03142 0055 +077 +077 212046 048 029 005 00
124930 1400N 06716W 6967 03139 0050 +082 +072 214050 051 030 005 00
125000 1401N 06714W 6967 03142 0049 +082 +076 215050 051 030 005 00
125030 1401N 06712W 6967 03143 0051 +081 +079 216049 050 032 004 00
$$

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 12:51Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 14
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
12:41:00 13.98N 67.85W 696.9 mb 3,125 m 1001.8 mb From 237° (WSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 32 kts 5 mm/hr
12:41:30 13.97N 67.82W 696.4 mb 3,131 m 1002.8 mb From 243° (WSW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 32 kts 7 mm/hr
12:42:00 13.97N 67.78W 696.5 mb 3,132 m 1003.5 mb From 241° (WSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 33 kts 6 mm/hr
12:42:30 13.97N 67.75W 696.8 mb 3,131 m 1004.1 mb From 234° (SW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 31 kts 6 mm/hr
12:43:00 13.95N 67.72W 696.7 mb 3,135 m 1004.1 mb From 233° (SW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 32 kts 5 mm/hr
12:43:30 13.95N 67.68W 696.8 mb 3,135 m 1004.4 mb From 227° (SW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
12:44:00 13.95N 67.65W 696.9 mb 3,135 m 1005.0 mb From 223° (SW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 31 kts 6 mm/hr
12:44:30 13.93N 67.62W 696.6 mb 3,138 m 1004.8 mb From 218° (SW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 35 kts* 6 mm/hr*
12:45:00 13.95N 67.58W 696.5 mb 3,141 m 1004.3 mb From 216° (SW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
12:45:30 13.95N 67.55W 696.9 mb 3,136 m 1004.1 mb From 211° (SSW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 32 kts 5 mm/hr
12:46:00 13.97N 67.52W 696.4 mb 3,139 m 1004.3 mb From 210° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 33 kts 4 mm/hr
12:46:30 13.97N 67.47W 696.7 mb 3,139 m 1004.5 mb From 210° (SSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 34 kts 5 mm/hr
12:47:00 13.97N 67.43W 697.2 mb 3,133 m 1004.6 mb From 210° (SSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
12:47:30 13.98N 67.40W 696.4 mb 3,142 m 1004.9 mb From 211° (SSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
12:48:00 13.98N 67.37W 697.1 mb 3,135 m 1005.0 mb From 210° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
12:48:30 13.98N 67.33W 696.7 mb 3,138 m 1004.9 mb From 213° (SSW/SW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 29 kts 5 mm/hr
12:49:00 14.00N 67.30W 696.5 mb 3,142 m 1005.5 mb From 212° (SSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 29 kts 5 mm/hr
12:49:30 14.00N 67.27W 696.7 mb 3,139 m 1005.0 mb From 214° (SW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
12:50:00 14.02N 67.23W 696.7 mb 3,142 m 1004.9 mb From 215° (SW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
12:50:30 14.02N 67.20W 696.7 mb 3,143 m 1005.1 mb From 216° (SW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 32 kts 4 mm/hr
At 12:41:00Z (first observation), the observation was 329 miles (529 km) to the SSW (201°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 12:50:30Z (last observation), the observation was 313 miles (504 km) to the SSW (194°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yes the outflow will push moisture out into the envelope, but steering wise, the high pressure still moves even the stongest storms. I think any weakness will get exploited and we'll see a N component in the track over the long term. jogs, wobbles etc. included.

[wxwatcher91]

OMG! Haiti and Dominican Republic are gone!

[HouTXmetro]

We are still 5 to 6 days out. I have a feeling before it's all said and done the models will move a good deal to the right.

Why do you feel the models will move a good deal to the right?

This is an uneducated opinion, but the remnants of Erin have stalled on the TX/MX border near the Big Bend National Park. It's going to be hard for the ULL to make too much progress west with Erin's stubborn remants sitting in Texas. Perhaps a pro-met can chime in. Here is the satellite loop of Erin and the ULL.

http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24

[canegrl04]

DEAN(150mph) WILL REACH JAMAICA STRONGER THAN GILBERT(135mph) WAS

[Starburst]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 181213
XXAA 68127 99153 70679 04357 99942 26600 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92160 25200 25093 85905 25245 27593 70598 11600 31108 88999 77999
31313 09608 81153
61616 AF304 0604A DEAN OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1529N06785W 1156 LST WND 033 MBL WND 25094
AEV 00000 DLM WND 27590 939715 WL150 24101 108 =
XXBB 68128 99153 70679 04357 00942 26600 11875 23210 22850 25245
33769 22656 44747 21046 55718 18800 66699 11000
21212 00942 ///// 11939 23600 22929 24602 33919 25081 44909 24592
55896 25598 66894 26103 77887 25591 88872 26094 99864 26584 11850
27593 22823 28107 33771 29595 44699 31108
31313 09608 81153
61616 AF304 0604A DEAN OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1529N06785W 1156 LST WND 033 MBL WND 25094
AEV 00000 DLM WND 27590 939715 WL150 24101 108 =