CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[ronjon]

Looks like the models are coming into consensus - should provide more confidence to everyone on the long term track.

[Javlin]

Yes the outflow will push moisture out into the envelope, but steering wise, the high pressure still moves even the stongest storms. I think any weakness will get exploited and we'll see a N component in the track over the long term. jogs, wobbles etc. included.

I am beginning to wonder some of the same .The ULL "I think" is starting to have an effect on Dean N'erly movement some I seem to remember something about 10* seperation between systems or they start affecting each other?You can see the flow of the ULL 5*-7* outfront of Dean over Jamaica pulling N here

[HURAKAN]

its not going west... on this heading, it would crash right into Port Au Prince and kill tens of thousands... I think I'd take the US hit in comparison

Admirable statement...Selfish sinful human being that I am,I would rather it hit anywhere but where my family would be in harm's way..and that is the U.S..

I agree with Derek. I went to Cuba last month to visit my family and things are really, really bad. I visited the country-side of the Havana province and a lot of people are still recovering from Charley. In the US the government immediately sends aid and lives can be rebuilded back very easily compared to already poor countries. No one wants to take punch like Dean, but if there is a country with the resources to take the punch and still stand up, is the US.

[hial2]

Looks like the models are coming into consensus - should provide more confidence to everyone on the long term track.

I think those models are about to make a radical change...

[HURAKAN]

Latest.

[Mattie]

For those of us that are just watching and monitoring your posts for information, would it be possible when you post graphics to date them? Some are dated already but the models like OTown posted above don't have a date. Since the board is moving so fast, it would be a help if we had date and time so we know we are looking at the most current information.

Thanks, everyone. Stay safe!!!

[USTropics]

The 06Z run has become available of the GFDL. The track has indeed shifted to the south, with a glancing blow over the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in 64-70 hours with 191 mph sustained winds and a central pressure reading of 900mb!

It takes it into the Mexico/Texas border in 100-108 hours. Sustained winds are 155mph with a central pressure reading of 924mb.

[BensonTCwatcher]

One other little thing, for DR/Haiti Jamaica. That ULL would seem to provide an outflow channel and further ventilate the system as it gets a little closer. If this does an ERC it could bomb for a while. Not good. I hope there's some shear that gets involved as well at some point.


* edit for fat fingering

[Air Force Met]

Weather like all of us is ever changing. I knew that Dean was going to track west as long as the dry air core was to the north and west of it. However, Dean is now a major hurricane and they create their own environments. I would be irresponsible to make any kind of prediction at this time. My ego is a lot less important then lives that could possibly be lost.

Uh...not all major hurricanes create their own environments. That's a myth tossed around frequently on tropical boards by bloggers. The largest and most intense storms will assist the ridge to their north and thus keep themselves moving wnw for longer periods of time and missing minor shortwaves...but they do not create their own environment...thus being unaffected by other processes...such as major trofs.

Dean was moving west because the nose of the ridge between the high to the north and the low to its NW was nosing out in front of it and pushing it west. Since it has closed some distance on the upper low...it has rounded the nose of the ridge.

Now...if that is what you mean by dry air core (your term for a ridge) then yes that is what is happening. IF not...then I would like a definition.

[Air Force Met]

Looks like the models are coming into consensus - should provide more confidence to everyone on the long term track.

I think those models are about to make a radical change...

Yep...to the right I fear.

[Starburst]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181301
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 15 20070818
125100 1401N 06710W 6967 03143 0056 +079 +076 217049 050 031 005 00
125130 1402N 06708W 6971 03141 0056 +082 +065 215048 049 030 005 00
125200 1402N 06706W 6965 03149 0050 +090 +054 212049 050 030 005 00
125230 1403N 06704W 6967 03150 0054 +086 +060 211050 050 031 004 00
125300 1403N 06702W 6969 03146 0061 +082 +076 210044 045 030 006 00
125330 1404N 06700W 6964 03154 0073 +073 +073 208045 045 999 999 03
125400 1406N 06659W 6973 03146 0069 +078 +078 207045 045 027 019 03
125430 1407N 06659W 6954 03165 0062 +079 +079 210045 046 999 999 03
125500 1408N 06700W 6971 03143 0057 +083 +083 207043 043 031 006 03
125530 1409N 06702W 6966 03149 0053 +088 +071 208045 046 032 006 00
125600 1409N 06704W 6967 03146 0052 +086 +073 207045 046 029 005 03
125630 1411N 06705W 6964 03148 0059 +079 +079 206042 043 032 005 00
125700 1412N 06706W 6968 03141 0054 +079 +079 204042 043 035 005 00
125730 1413N 06708W 6967 03139 0053 +080 +080 202043 044 034 005 00
125800 1415N 06709W 6967 03139 0053 +078 +078 202044 044 035 004 00
125830 1416N 06711W 6967 03139 0050 +080 +076 201045 046 034 005 00
125900 1417N 06712W 6967 03138 0046 +081 +078 200047 048 036 005 00
125930 1419N 06713W 6969 03133 0044 +083 +079 200048 049 036 005 00
130000 1420N 06715W 6963 03139 0043 +082 +075 200049 050 038 006 00
130030 1421N 06716W 6967 03132 0048 +076 +076 199049 050 039 017 00
$$

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 13:01Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)


Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 15
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
12:51:00 14.02N 67.17W 696.7 mb 3,143 m 1005.6 mb From 217° (SW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 31 kts 5 mm/hr
12:51:30 14.03N 67.13W 697.1 mb 3,141 m 1005.6 mb From 215° (SW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
12:52:00 14.03N 67.10W 696.5 mb 3,149 m 1005.0 mb From 212° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 30 kts 5 mm/hr
12:52:30 14.05N 67.07W 696.7 mb 3,150 m 1005.4 mb From 211° (SSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 31 kts 4 mm/hr
12:53:00 14.05N 67.03W 696.9 mb 3,146 m 1006.1 mb From 210° (SSW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
12:53:30 14.07N 67.00W 696.4 mb 3,154 m 1007.3 mb From 208° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) - -
12:54:00 14.10N 66.98W 697.3 mb 3,146 m 1006.9 mb From 207° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 27 kts* 19 mm/hr*
12:54:30 14.12N 66.98W 695.4 mb 3,165 m 1006.2 mb From 210° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) - -
12:55:00 14.13N 67.00W 697.1 mb 3,143 m 1005.7 mb From 207° (SSW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 31 kts* 6 mm/hr*
12:55:30 14.15N 67.03W 696.6 mb 3,149 m 1005.3 mb From 208° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 32 kts 6 mm/hr
12:56:00 14.15N 67.07W 696.7 mb 3,146 m 1005.2 mb From 207° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 29 kts* 5 mm/hr*
12:56:30 14.18N 67.08W 696.4 mb 3,148 m 1005.9 mb From 206° (SSW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 32 kts 5 mm/hr
12:57:00 14.20N 67.10W 696.8 mb 3,141 m 1005.4 mb From 204° (SSW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 35 kts 5 mm/hr
12:57:30 14.22N 67.13W 696.7 mb 3,139 m 1005.3 mb From 202° (SSW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 34 kts 5 mm/hr
12:58:00 14.25N 67.15W 696.7 mb 3,139 m 1005.3 mb From 202° (SSW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 35 kts 4 mm/hr
12:58:30 14.27N 67.18W 696.7 mb 3,139 m 1005.0 mb From 201° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 34 kts 5 mm/hr
12:59:00 14.28N 67.20W 696.7 mb 3,138 m 1004.6 mb From 200° (SSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 36 kts 5 mm/hr
12:59:30 14.32N 67.22W 696.9 mb 3,133 m 1004.4 mb From 200° (SSW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 36 kts 5 mm/hr
13:00:00 14.33N 67.25W 696.3 mb 3,139 m 1004.3 mb From 200° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 38 kts 6 mm/hr
13:00:30 14.35N 67.27W 696.7 mb 3,132 m 1004.8 mb From 199° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 39 kts 17 mm/hr
At 12:51:00Z (first observation), the observation was 313 miles (503 km) to the SSW (194°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 13:00:30Z (last observation), the observation was 292 miles (470 km) to the SSW (196°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

[Jagno]

AM; I'm just waking up......................in your "personal" opinion................how far right?

[hial2]

its not going west... on this heading, it would crash right into Port Au Prince and kill tens of thousands... I think I'd take the US hit in comparison

Admirable statement...Selfish sinful human being that I am,I would rather it hit anywhere but where my family would be in harm's way..and that is the U.S..

I agree with Derek. I went to Cuba last month to visit my family and things are really, really bad. I visited the country-side of the Havana province and a lot of people are still recovering from Charley. In the US the government immediately sends aid and lives can be rebuilded back very easily compared to already poor countries. No one wants to take punch like Dean, but if there is a country with the resources to take the punch and still stand up, is the US.

Agreed ref resources,but it will be no solace to those that have to bury their dead in the aftermath..

[Air Force Met]

We are still 5 to 6 days out. I have a feeling before it's all said and done the models will move a good deal to the right.

Why do you feel the models will move a good deal to the right?

This is an uneducated opinion, but the remnants of Erin have stalled on the TX/MX border near the Big Bend National Park. It's going to be hard for the ULL to make too much progress west with Erin's stubborn remants sitting in Texas. Perhaps a pro-met can chime in. Here is the satellite loop of Erin and the ULL.

http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24

What it will do is just keep a constant weakness over Texas...and thus the upper low over FL won't go as far north as originally progged. The combo of the two upper lows impact Dean's track 100%...becaue they will determine how much of the ridge builds back in.

[miamicanes177]

Can someone please post a radar that shows the eye? Thank you

[cycloneye]

6z GFDL Animation

[caneman]

In the short term GFDL has been correct. Even though is shifted to the South, I do believe it has the better handle and will shift back right. Margin of error this far out I blieve is still in the order of 300-500 miles I believe. I would keep an eye out all the way up to N.O. just in case. You can se on W.V. it has has out ran the ridge. The question will be does it later on bend back left. Right now, I wouldn't bank on it.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I've had that impression the entire time this thing has neared the islands. I have been feeling that the climo more or less would kick in. I am just not good with figuring out WHEN with synoptics. I have to think some of you pros and experienced weather folks here had the same feeling, but there was nothing really solid to point at given the clustering of models. I hope that the model agreement has not given folks to the right of the tracks a false sense of security. We have seen storms veer off 3 day tracks before and always off of 5 day tracks. Usually to the right.

[crownweather]

What it will do is just keep a constant weakness over Texas...and thus the upper low over FL won't go as far north as originally progged. The combo of the two upper lows impact Dean's track 100%...becaue they will determine how much of the ridge builds back in.

AFMet: Meaning, I assume, a track further to the right may be possible, like the GFS ensembles are hinting at??

Thx

[O Town]

For those of us that are just watching and monitoring your posts for information, would it be possible when you post graphics to date them? Some are dated already but the models like OTown posted above don't have a date. Since the board is moving so fast, it would be a help if we had date and time so we know we are looking at the most current information.

Thanks, everyone. Stay safe!!!

I am not sure what you mean, the time each model came out is at the top next to its title.