ATL: IKE Discussion

[rtd2]

The more strength Ike attains the more northerly he will go....

Huh?

I believe I heard Steve Lyons talking about this at one time...

you did and for the most part its true 'canes natural motion is to go poleward but there is alot of other factors and IKE's no where near strong enough to create or influence his own enviroment. it can and does happen though ESPECIALLY close to land imho

[SMNederlandTX]

Now, I may be wrong on this one, so correct me please, if I am. I thought I read from several posters that Rita and Katrina both had no dry air to contend with and that was one of several things that made them so powerful.....And Rita produced a lot of tornadoes from what I read. Oops....LOL forgot to post the rest
Anyways....Ike is supposedly dealing with dry air, that is one of the reasons he is not as strong as those...ok am I making any sense...? LOL

I don't know if this can be forecasted or not....but does anyone know if there will be a lot of tornadoes with this and if so, how far from the center do you think they will occur? Probably a stupid question...but kinda curious....

Depends on several factors. Usually right front quad is more prone to be tornadic, but as we all saw with Gustav, it really depends on the air pattern that he bumps into over land.

quite frequently, if the storm is ingesting a lot of dry air it will tend to produce more tornadoes

[Sabanic]

I don't know if this can be forecasted or not....but does anyone know if there will be a lot of tornadoes with this and if so, how far from the center do you think they will occur? Probably a stupid question...but kinda curious....

Depends on several factors. Usually right front quad is more prone to be tornadic, but as we all saw with Gustav, it really depends on the air pattern that he bumps into over land.

The amount of moisture a storm can draw also is a major contributor. Fay rode the Gulf Coast and was able to draw from the GOM for a long period of time. In the bands were many squalls and the majority of the tornadic activity was in the feeder bands. Gustav also drew mositure from the GOM for a good while. Not that the moisture is the main contibutor, but basically the more thunderstorm activity in the squalls the more chance for tornadoes.

[dixiebreeze]

Deep pressure drop here:

Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
12-meter discus buoy
ARES payload
25.900 N 89.667 W (25°54'0" N 89°40'0" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 10 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 10 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: sea level
Sea temp depth: 1 m below site elevation
Water depth: 3246 m
Watch circle radius: 3172 yards

Latest Satellite Wind Map for this Area
Conditions at 42001 as of
(2:50 pm CDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 16.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Average Period (APD): 8.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.69 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.7 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
2:50 pm NE ( 36 deg ) 21.6 kts
2:40 pm NE ( 38 deg ) 22.9 kts
2:30 pm NE ( 41 deg ) 23.3 kts
2:20 pm NE ( 44 deg ) 22.5 kts
2:10 pm NE ( 40 deg ) 23.3 kts
2:00 pm NE ( 43 deg ) 27.2 kts

[KatDaddy]

The trend of moving E has started. Hoping like hell the trend continues. Not to wish this on anyone but the HOU-GAL areas dont need it.

[N2Storms]

[quote="KatDaddy"]The trend of moving E has started. Hoping like hell the trend continues. Not to wish this on anyone but the HOU-GAL areas dont need it.[/quote]


Kat...are you alright?

[Myersgirl]

I have been working all day and wondering why these clouds are still hanging thick. Looking at satellite, is Ike almost 1 degree NE of next forecast point and slowing? By the way is this thing also expanding? Best of Luck Texas, here is hoping he falls apart!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Full creit to Memeber Jevo...


So far Ike is big but not close to tips. We will see how big he gets.

[cycloneye]

Anyone knows why the Air Force identifies the flight as=AF303 2009A IKE1 That number 1 besides the name.

[Cape Verde]

I pruned my big oak trees in front of the house on Monday. I wasn't even thinking about doing it in preparation of Ike. They just needed it.

Right now in Houston, I'll bet every crew is booked at the moment. Luckiest decision I've made in awhile.

[SMNederlandTX]

When is the next update?

[terrapintransit]

Full creit to Memeber Jevo...


So far Ike is big but not close to tips. We will see how big he gets.

Is that Blob out in the Central Atlantic Josephine trying to make a come back??

[RL3AO]

Anyone knows why the Air Force identifies the flight as=AF303 2009A IKE1 That number 1 besides the name.

They had transmission problems or something after takeoff and there were no new hdobs for an hour or so. When they came back, the HDOBs restarted at set #1 and the mission was IKE1.

[mascpa]

Well I certainly hope the debris from your trimming gets picked up before Ike arrives. Otherwose you may have created a lot of missiles to be picked up by the wind.

[Nederlander]

When is the next update?

in about 15 minutes....

[cycloneye]

Anyone knows why the Air Force identifies the flight as=AF303 2009A IKE1 That number 1 besides the name.

They had transmission problems or something after takeoff and there were no new hdobs for an hour or so. When they came back, the HDOBs restarted at set #1 and the mission was IKE1.

Thanks for the answer.

[SMNederlandTX]

When is the next update?

in about 15 minutes....

Thank you

Anyone think there will be any changes in the forecasted path?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Full creit to Memeber Jevo...


So far Ike is big but not close to tips. We will see how big he gets.

Is that Blob out in the Central Atlantic Josephine trying to make a come back??

Maybe, but as Ike's strengthens expect his outflow jet to strengthen on his east side. So this keeps it on topic for talking about Ike!

[Lowpressure]

Yes, the trailing blob on the IR satellite is the former Josephine. See the separate thread on this as several have picked up on this.

[HenkL]

The 1209 mission restarted HDOBs 4 times and came to IKE4 two days ago.