ATL: IRMA - Models

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caneseddy
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7781 Postby caneseddy » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:50 am

txwatcher91 wrote:HMON shifts east a tad as well with the landfall point on South Florida. Cuba is looking less likely. Euro will be telling.


HMON pretty much obliterates South Florida
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7782 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:51 am

possible issue with the HWRF run

Seems like in the 24-48 hour time frame, it is too far north, taking it north of the SE Bahamas
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7783 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:51 am

txwatcher91 wrote:HMON shifts east a tad as well with the landfall point on South Florida. Cuba is looking less likely. Euro will be telling.


The HMON makes landfall in Key Largo just like the 18z run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7784 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:53 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
Sean in New Orleans wrote:Think it is trending East. Wouldn't suprise me...the trough is coming down quick...it is the New Orleans area now. It's a wide trough...just getting here.



Did someone just say a "trend"? Nothing against you Sean, but everyone poo pooed it when I mentioned a trend starter for the 18z GFS.


It's not moving that quick...trough is coming. Still a long ways away. Models just starting to pick up what's going on around S. Florida...we'll see.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7785 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:53 am

hr 24

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7786 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:54 am

meriland29 wrote:hr 24

Image

Looks south of the GFS
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7787 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:56 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
meriland29 wrote:hr 24

Image

Looks south of the GFS


Yes, it is also southwest of yesterday's 0z run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7788 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:58 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
meriland29 wrote:hr 24

Image

Looks south of the GFS


Yes, it is also southwest of yesterday's 0z run.

Looks closer to the motion of the storm at the moment and closer if not right over the NHC plots
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7789 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:59 am

With the Euro so far south at 24 hours, it won’t take long to verify if it’s right or not about that. Pretty unusual to see such a spread between it and the GFS only 24 hours out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7790 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:00 am

HWRF run looks to have the same issue as the GFS from this afternoon...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7791 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:01 am

AutoPenalti wrote:HWRF run looks to have the same issue as the GFS from this afternoon...

Yep, the old breaking down the ridges too quickly bias
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7792 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:01 am

hr 48

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7793 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:03 am

At hour 48 the Euro is a bit north of the 00z run yesterday. Ridging is weaker too with the finger ridge.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7794 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:03 am

Looks like I am up for the duration. Can sleep when power is out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7795 Postby AubreyStorm » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:04 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
meriland29 wrote:hr 24

Image

Looks south of the GFS


Landfall?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7796 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:05 am

here is a good image of what the ridge vs the trough is doing at hour 48..


Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7797 Postby caneseddy » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:08 am

Hour 72 Euro is off of the northern coast of Cuba....almost in line with 12z
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7798 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:08 am

hour 72

Image
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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7799 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:09 am

Is it me or is Euro's track similar to HWRF's in this run?

Image
Last edited by MatthewsRevenge on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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meriland29
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7800 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:09 am

Significantly weakened trough
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