SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[vbhoutex]

Steve, If I didn't know better I would swear you are copying and pasting from Dec./Jan.! All kidding aside though all the signals are there again as we start a step down to definitively colder again this week. The January thaw will end and end quickly Thursday evening here in SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

I know David. HGX thoughts this morning...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
417 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN
DRY/COOL CONDITIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS NOW EAST OF THE AREA. NO SHORTWAVES EVIDENT TO OUR
WEST TO GENERATE "SURPRISE CONVECTION" AS OCCURRED OVER THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL AND MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN TREK
EAST REACHING WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY AFTN. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO 50 KTS ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT FIRST THEN BECOME MORE ROBUST WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE JET STRENGTHENS. EXPECT STRATUS TO FILL
IN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN THE EVENING WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWS
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME DIFFLUENT BY THURSDAY AS THE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 120 KT JET MAX AT 300 MB APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. PVA WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL. HAVE FOLLOWED 06Z GFS
FOR TIMING OF FRONT WHICH IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE 00Z RUN.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SE TX DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH THIS BOUNDARY SERVING AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NRN ZONES
LATE WED NIGHT AND INLAND SECTIONS THURSDAY. CAPPING WILL WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
HIGH PWS IN PLACE. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SE TX LATE
THU AFTN/EVENING. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS GOING FOR STRATIFORM RAIN THU
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AS A GOOD CHUNK
OF POLAR AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO
DROP TO AROUND -6C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
PROFILES BEING COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP OVER OUR
NW HALF LATE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AND GIVEN THIS IS
STILL DAYS AWAY HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING ANYTHING IN FCST.
REGARDLESS...FRIDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. A HARD
FREEZE IS LIKELY OVER THE NRN HALF FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY AND COLD AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATTERN REMAINS
VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS SUN AFTN/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

35

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CST MON JAN 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S...A FEW CI STREAMING OVER IN WELL-ESTABLISHED
WESTERLIES. UPPER TROUGH ROTATING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
ITS WAKE...TRANSITORY RIDGING. SURFACE HIGH EXPANDING IN FROM
SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER AROUND THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH CELL EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US GOING INTO
MID-WEEK WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO BE THE DOMINANT WIND WEDNESDAY
...LEADING UP TO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING`S COLD FROPA.

DECENT MOISTURE FETCH UP FROM THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE
CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH UPGLIDE LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
TO SQUEEZE A FEW (PRIMARILY WESTERN CWA) -SHRA OUT UNDER A NEAR
800 MB WARM NOSE. INCREASING WAA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FALLING
WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING 5H CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TROUGH...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...FROPA TO COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING HOURS. BULK OF ENERGY/BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN UP NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CITY. THUNDER OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH A PRETTY DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT BETTER FRONTAL
FORCING SHOULD LIFT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO NEAR SEVERE
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LESS-CAPPED REGIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-45 CORRIDOR MID-THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN EARLIER RUNS...A
WARMER COLUMN THAT HAS TOO MUCH DRY AIR WITHIN IT FROM 00Z FRI
THROUGH 18Z. WITH THAT BEING SAID...LIGHT SNOW (MAYBE SLEET)
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF THE FRONT
SLOWS UP AND ALLOWS CAA TO WORKS ITS WAY INTO A MORE MOIST
PROFILE. OBVIOUSLY...RAMBLING SCENARIOS HERE WITH NO MENTION OF
THIS IN TODAYS OFFICIAL PRODUCTS.

RUN-TO-RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ON HOW COLD...OR DRY...THIS NEXT
CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL ACTUALLY BE HAS THIS FORECAST WARMER BY
ONLY A FEW DEGREES. NEVERTHELESS...STILL A COLD WEEKEND WITH T MXS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS LOOK THE COLDEST AS A WEAKENING P GRADIENT
SATURDAY AIDS IN LOWER WINDS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED SIMILAR AIR MASS
TO TODAY`S (PWAT-WISE) SPILLS INTO EASTERN TEXAS.

RETURN FLOW BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON...WITH HEIGHTENED CENTRAL TX
PVA...HAS POPS RETURNING TO THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF FEBRUARY. 31

[Jagno]

Overnight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. East wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 58. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 63. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 31. North wind around 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 53. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. East wind around 10 mph.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Intense meso low moving up the coast this morning with very strong surface winds.

ASOS sites at Pearland and Ellington have been gusting to over 45mph this morning in the small area from Pearland to Baytown and then ESE over Galveston Bay within a region a sharp pressure gradient.

Models have handled this event fairly poorly even with their decent run to run consistency...fact is the surface low is still somewhere over deep S TX and not over the upper TX coast and is much weaker than forecast. Rainfall totals have been more towards the lower end of the forecasted amounts...generally in the .5 to 1.0 inch range. Ground truth gages show 1.0-2.0 inches over S Harris County where 88D is showing between 1-2 inches. Feel the areas of 1 inch on the radar are likely closer to 2 inches especially near the coast and out over our western counties.

Main area of rain is shifting eastward this morning...although radars to the west still show more development...so not ready to clear out all rain chances just yet with 150kt jet nearby and the upper trough still to our west. Passing showers will be possible into tonight and may become more concentrated at times with passing disturbances rotating around the large upper trough over NM.

Tides have remained in fairly good shape overnight with a weaker and still far SW surprised surface low the winds have not increased into gale force over the NW Gulf which has helped to keep tides in the 1-2 foot range. Strong winds over Galveston Bay the past few hours have pushed tides to around 2.0 feet on the west side of the Bay and 1.8-2.0 feet at Clear Lake which is well below any critical thresholds.

Hard pressed to get very excited about clearing Friday or Saturday as GFS traps moisture below 850mb inversion...similar to last weekend. Short term models are showing more clearing and if we can mix enough we may be able to break out on Saturday...hopefully we will as the active storm track over the state looks to bring some nasty stuff next week.

Extended:

Next storm will move into the state on Monday with clouds increasing Sunday and rain starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Cold arctic air mass will be unleashed by this system and pour into TX starting Tuesday. Feel all rainfall will end prior to colder air reaching the area...hence all liquid.

Bigger developing trend appears to be highly active southern stream to bring at least 3 more systems over the state post Mon-Tues with cold arctic air in place. Could see multiple winter storm threats middle next week into next weekend with snow/sleet/ice across large parts of the state...this is still 5-7 days away so much can change.

Active weather looks to continue for the next 14 days with storm systems lined up well into the Pacific. Will see chances for rain about every 2-3 days with slim chances of sun between systems. Clouds and rain will continue to keep temperatures below normal for the next 2 weeks with highs next week after Tuesday only in the mid 40's...and possibly colder. Cold and wet winter of 09-10 continues on....

[southerngale]

hehe...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE SAINTS WON AND WE DO NOT LIVE IN DC...THE BAD
NEWS...WE DID MISS THE DC SNOWBALL FIGHT.

OUR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A SONG... LET IT
RAIN LET IT RAIN LET IT RAIN...THE WEATHER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
MONTHS CONTINUES TO BE A BROKEN RECORD WITH RAIN...MORE RAIN...AND
MORE RAIN STILL. IT HAS BEEN A VERY WET WINTER BUT THIS IN NORMAL
FOR AN EL NINO EVENT.


the rest of the discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[vbhoutex]

The latest from Jeff Lindner:

Same story this entire winter will play out again this week...but it is a far cry from the 2.0-3.0 feet of snow dumped on the mid-Atlantic this weekend.

Cold and wet middle to end of the week with some threat of winter precip. over our N and W counties.

Next in the series of southern stream storm systems will affect the area today into tonight with increasing chances for showers this afternoon and a threat for thunderstorms...some strong tonight. Low level moisture continues to increase this morning with 40kt low level jet overhead. Expect surface dewpoints to make a run toward the lower 60's by this afternoon ahead of the approaching arctic front. Arctic boundary surging down the plains will arrive tonight. Lift along the boundary will create a favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms from around 300pm to about midnight. Very strong cold air advection develops post front with falling temperatures and gusty NW winds. This same system will head on eastward and produce another 6-12" of snow over the mid-Atlantic on top of an already robust snowpack.

Highs will struggle to reach 50 on Tuesday...as a matter of fact today will likely be the warmest for the next 2 weeks with 60's not seen again until toward the end of the month. The rest of this week will be in the 40's...maybe 30's for highs. Cold and dry air mass entrenches into the region early Tuesday...low clouds may break up by afternoon, however active southern stream will spill high level cirrus back over the region by early evening Tuesday and that will be the last time we see the sun until maybe this weekend...although that is even questionable.

Entrenched arctic high and continued cold air advection will likely result in a freeze Wednesday AM. Next item of interest is the next system which pulls across TX Wed-Fri with the cold and dry arctic air in place. Models continue to waffer widely with the track of the surface and upper level lows, the air column temperature profiles, and the surface temperatures as well as P-type concerns. It appears guidance is trending toward the colder and stronger GFS solution of the past several days which does raise some concern for P-type issues across our western and northern counties through the period. GFS has has the deeper coastal low with strong coastal winds again and tidal rises along the coast...same ole story.

For now will keep everything liquid, but any slight deviation of the upper low southward or slightly colder/drier air would support a chance of sleet/snow/freezing rain/rain into portions of SE TX Thursday AM-Friday AM. Will undercut guidance on highs for Thursday and show nearly steady temperatures in the upper 30's. Travel N and W of the area could become an issue by early Thursday as a full blown winter storm looks likely over W and portions of NW TX.

System should exit the area Friday with perhaps some late afternoon clearing. Third system will line up and affect the state by next Sunday. Once again little air mass modification is expected with continued filtering of cold air southward. This system looks to spread more ice and snow from NM across OK into the mid-Atlantic.

Long range outlook shows a little drier pattern for next week...but still cold with below normal temperatures east of the Rockies.

[southerngale]

They're often too high with the forecasted low temps... and/or the forecast could change to drop temps a few degrees (or go the other way, I realize). So what happens if that's the case this time and it is below freezing? Would we get sleet, snow, or freezing rain? I know the chances for snow are slim to none, but I like hanging onto that little thread, if there is one.


My current NWS forecast:

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 33. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 44. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: Rain. Low around 36. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. North wind around 10 mph.

[CajunMama]

hehe...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE SAINTS WON AND WE DO NOT LIVE IN DC...THE BAD
NEWS...WE DID MISS THE DC SNOWBALL FIGHT.

OUR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A SONG... LET IT
RAIN LET IT RAIN LET IT RAIN...THE WEATHER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
MONTHS CONTINUES TO BE A BROKEN RECORD WITH RAIN...MORE RAIN...AND
MORE RAIN STILL. IT HAS BEEN A VERY WET WINTER BUT THIS IN NORMAL
FOR AN EL NINO EVENT.


the rest of the discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

did they hire someone with a sense of humor?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey cajun mama. Heard you guys had a pretty big party over there at the academy last night. Did you attend? As I said in the deep south thread... I will trade snow for a saints superbowl win anytime any year. WHO DAT.

[CajunMama]

Yeah mike, i was there! Academy's only about a mile or so from my house. We hopped in the car as soon as the game ended and headed over! We had some Saints beads left over from the parade we rode in saturday night and we tossed them into the crowd!

We were lucky as we were finished and back home in 70 minutes. The darn high school kids pretty much ruined it for me. They were cutting in line (in back of me). If someone tried to cut in line in front of me i well embarrassed them enough and they left. It just wasn't fair to those who had been waiting.

Thankfully it wasn't raining or bitterly cold.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sounds like fun. We were in N.O. for the game, it was insane. couldn't stay and party all night the wife had to work monday morning. We are heaed back over there around lunch to get ready for the parade. From what I hear it is expected to be the biggest party scene yet and the mother of all parades.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Another strong storm system will bring snow/sleet/ and rain to the state Wed-early Friday.

Strong cold front that passed through the region yesterday evening is now well into the Gulf of Mexico with strong cold air advection in progress. N winds of 15-30mph will continue this morning as large high pressure cell builds into the state. Upstream temperatures in the upper 20’s over N TX will keep cold conditions in place today, even as skies clear from north to south. Surface low will help drag the cold air mass over the plains southward today into tonight while major snows return to the US east coast. High level cirrus already noted in an arc from Baja toward Austin will become more widespread and thicken as the next storm located off the N CA coast drops SSE toward Baja and then tracks eastward over TX late this week.

Clearing skies tonight will likely result in a light freeze for many locations, although winds will likely remain up some helping to mitigate a free fall. Expect lows in the upper 20’s up north to the lower to mid 30’s down south. Clouds will rapidly increase on Wednesday as the CA system and massive slug of Pacific moisture noted SW of Baja this morning heads for the region. High level cirrus will thicken and lower while mid and low level decks advance into the region from the WSW. Dry low levels will take some time to moisten and this does raise some concern for P-type at precipitation onset.

Expect precipitation to develop along the Rio Grande by late morning as isentropic lift becomes established as mid level moisture surges above the surface cold dome. Forecast soundings over SC TX show a dry low level with wet bulb temperatures supportive of evaporational cooling prior to the onset of low level warm air advection. Feel the air will be dry and cold enough to support sleet/snow with the onset of the precip as far east as I-35 and then a transition over the sleet/rain for our western counties as the precip. moves into our region Wed PM. May see the onset as all sleet and then a changeover to rain by late evening as the low level profile warms. For the metro Houston area…it should start as rain although a few sleet pellets can not be ruled out.

Widespread cold rain on Thursday with temperatures nearly steady in the mid to upper 30’s. Will need to watch Thursday night very closely as core of the upper low moves over the state and forecast sounding become increasingly favorable for P-type transitions to a winter mix over our northern counties. Not sure there will be much moisture left by the time the air column would support sleet/snow…but it may be close north of a line from Austin to Huntsville. Surface temperatures should remain above freezing for the entire duration of the event so anything that does fall as frozen will melt on impact with the ground. Heavier snows will be possible just NW and N of our area and this may cause some travel concerns up I-45 Thursday into Friday.

System should exit east of the area early Friday with the sun returning for at least 24 hours. It will remain cool to cold under continued cold air advection. Next system will be due in late in the weekend and the GFS is trending colder with this event as well. Wetter and colder has been the trend all winter…so will still with that and show increasing clouds over the weekend with highs in the 50’s..some 5-10 degrees below average and then bring rain back late Sunday into Monday. Right now it does not look like P-type will be an issue with this event…but it is over 5 days out.

[r22weiss]

Getting very small ice pellets/sleet at work at Barker Cypress and I-10, right now.

[vbhoutex]

Same happening in the Spring Branch area. 43.9ºf currently.

[southerngale]

I posted this in the Texas thread, but I should have put it here. It'll get lost in there... that thread is hopping!!

--------------

Very interesting discussion from LCH for SE TX/SW LA. They're giving me hope that I'm sure will be crushed later. lol

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
412 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN KS AND OK/NERN
TX PROVIDING FOR A MAINLY LIGHT NERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROF IS DEPICTED UP THE LOWER/MID TX COAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH PLENTIFUL PACIFIC
MOISTURE NOW STREAMING OVER THE AREA...AND SATELLITE PIX SHOW THE
EXPECTED THICK CIRRUS SHIELD NOW OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW AN
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND UP INTO CNTL
TX. SFC OBS ARE GRADUALLY SHOWING MORE AND MORE RAINFALL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY MOISTENS.

NOT MUCH TO ADD TO EARLIER THINKING REGARDING UPCOMING RAIN/WINTER
WX EVENT. THE RAINFALL TO OUR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD
TOWARD THE AREA WHILE ALSO MOISTENING THE AIRMASS. EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN ZONES AFTER SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING SHOW
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STAYING JUST ABOVE FREEZING BUT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SLEET TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE NRN 1/2
OF THE AREA. TOWARD SUNRISE AS TEMPS COOL TO AROUND FREEZING OVER
THIS SAME REGION WOULD EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO BEGIN DEVELOPING.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE LOWER TX COAST TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RRQ OF H2 JET MAX WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. ALL OF THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH CATEGORICAL CHANCES OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LIKELY
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW OR POSSIBLY A MIX OVER THE NERN
ZONES WILL START BY LATE-AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE LAYER ABOVE 800
OR SO FEET COOLS TO BELOW FREEZING. ABOVE-FREEZING SFC TEMPS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ACCUMULATIONS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPLETE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH WILL HOLD
ONTO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR NOW WITH LATER
FORECASTS ALLOWED TO BETTER REFINE THE PRECIP TYPE. ALSO AS SFC
TEMPS FALL CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
STICKING ON GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW BOTH MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION
SLIGHT GRADUAL WARMING SHOULD ALLOW ALTHOUGH A CHANGEOVER BACK TO
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A DEFINITE OVER THE EXTREME NERN ZONES
WHERE TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED
THAT FLURRIES ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF JENNINGS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THROUGH
THE COLUMN ARE SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER ATTM HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP ONLY RAIN MENTIONED FOR THESE AREAS.

HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ATTM LOOK TO BE OVER THE EXTREME NERN ZONES
WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...THEN TREND DOWNWARD TO SAY
A 1/4 INCH NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS REASON WILL BE
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
FOR THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE
CALLS FOR AMOUNTS DEFINITELY HIGHER THAN 2 INCHES FOR THE EXTREME
NERN ZONES...AS WELL AS BRINGING WINTER PRECIP INTO THE SRN ZONES.
HAVE ELECTED TO GO THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW AND ALLOW LATER
SHIFTS TO BETTER REFINE THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT AND THE POSSIBLE
NEED TO UPGRADE THE ADVISORY TO A WATCH OR WARNING.

BEYOND THIS EVENT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS NWRLY FLOW TAKES OVER ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES THE AREA. CUTOFF LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS IS PROGGED
TO PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY USHERING IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

[vbhoutex]

Same happening in the Spring Branch area. 43.9ºf currently.

Still sleeting here. No accumulations due to temps.

[srainhoutx]

Mixed with light rain now in NW Harris County.

[Tireman4]

Sleeting in SE Houston

[southerngale]

I've got a Winter Weather Advisory!!

Flood Warning
Winter Weather Advisory
Hazardous Weather Outlook

I am just west of Beaumont, in the community of Pinewood. I'm on the very southern edge of the WWA, so I'm not really expecting much. Interesting nonetheless!

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.A MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE FEATURES WITH A LINGERING COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AND SLEET MIXED WITH
THE RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK AFTER SUNSET...MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW OR SLEET...WHILE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL STICK FIRST
TO VEGETATION AND ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE ACCUMULATING ON SURFACE
ROADWAYS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAMES. THE
SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...BEFORE CHANGING
BACK TO RAIN AND THEN COMING TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM.

LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-110600-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WW.Y.0001.100212T0000Z-100213T0000Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
431 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY.

RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
MIX WITH SNOW AND SLEET AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK AFTER
SUNSET THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW
OR POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET...WHILE ALSO BEGINNING TO
ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES PARISHES WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR
SLEET ARE EXPECTED...WITH AMOUNTS THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1
INCH FROM OPELOUSAS TO LEESVILLE TO NEWTON. AMOUNTS AVERAGING A
1/2 INCH EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

I'll believe it when I see it.