ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Macrocane]

Wow, I would laugh if this doesn't even become a TS. If this tropical cyclone is a indication of things to come, this season will be a real snoozer. No responses of "It only takes one" please. Not to discount anything, just my faith in the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is non-existent.

Sorry, but since when the first systems have been an indication of the future systems to come?

[brunota2003]

12/2345 UTC 14.1N 35.7W T1.5/2.5 02L -- Atlantic

That shows the current Sat derived intensity as being 25 knots, with current intensity at 35 knots (or 2.5).

Between that, QS showing nothing more than 25 knots, and current sat trends/appearance, 25 knots seems most likely, with that even possibly being generous.

[bob rulz]

Wow, I would laugh if this doesn't even become a TS. If this tropical cyclone is a indication of things to come, this season will be a real snoozer. No responses of "It only takes one" please. Not to discount anything, just my faith in the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is non-existent.

Sorry, but since when the first systems have been an indication of the future systems to come?

Well considering it's mid-August and we haven't yet had a storm, and our first legitimate candidate is getting ripped apart right before our eyes and may not make it...

Of course, it's impossible to know how this season will turn out. I hate to say it only takes 1, but, you know...

[CrazyC83]

12/2345 UTC 14.1N 35.7W T1.5/2.5 02L -- Atlantic

That shows the current Sat derived intensity as being 25 knots, with current intensity at 35 knots (or 2.5).

Between that, QS showing nothing more than 25 knots, and current sat trends/appearance, 25 knots seems most likely, with that even possibly being generous.

If it is less than 25 kt, they'd probably declare it an open wave.

[clfenwi]

AL, 02, 2009081300, , BEST, 0, 141N, 357W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M,

[wxman57]

Hopefully this one will dissipate so we can focus on the real threat out there.

[KWT]

Still holding at 30kts which is a little surprising I think given the apperence.

Wxman57, I think there is no doubt that once we get an invest up all the attention will flood to that system...that has a makings of a 500 page plus type storm to me...ho hum!

[george_r_1961]

Hopefully this one will dissipate so we can focus on the real threat out there.

Not trying to be sarcastic but where is the real threat?

[jinftl]

blah blah blah....this isn't the place for the moans and groans....this is a thread for td2.

I think he is referring to this season being quiet in terms of being able to really track anything...not destruction or death...hence the "No responses of "It only takes one" please. Not to discount anything, just my faith in the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is non-existent."

[jinftl]

the system that just emerged off of africa has some of the most respected...and conservative (as in not quick to jump on every rainshower over dakar) amateur and pro met posters, making some pretty strong forecasts in terms of a potential major hurricane traversing the atlantic. There is model consistency to back these claims. For those who have spent many seasons on this board, our ears do perk up when certain posters...many of whom are pro mets....start writing about systems as they have with this new one.

now back to td 2...

Hopefully this one will dissipate so we can focus on the real threat out there.

Not trying to be sarcastic but where is the real threat?

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0039 UTC THU AUG 13 2009 

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 

   

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090813 0000 UTC 

   

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 

        090813  0000   090813  1200   090814  0000   090814  1200 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    14.1N  35.7W   14.3N  37.5W   14.5N  39.4W   14.8N  41.6W 
BAMD    14.1N  35.7W   14.3N  38.2W   15.0N  40.7W   15.7N  43.1W 
BAMM    14.1N  35.7W   14.4N  37.7W   15.0N  39.7W   15.5N  41.9W 
LBAR    14.1N  35.7W   14.1N  38.2W   14.9N  40.9W   15.6N  43.8W 
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          38KTS 
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          38KTS 

           ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 

        090815  0000   090816  0000   090817  0000   090818  0000 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    15.1N  44.0W   16.7N  51.0W   20.1N  60.0W   24.6N  67.6W 
BAMD    16.7N  45.5W   19.0N  50.7W   21.8N  56.1W   23.9N  59.7W 
BAMM    16.1N  44.4W   17.9N  50.9W   20.6N  58.8W   23.9N  64.9W 
LBAR    16.6N  46.7W   18.8N  52.6W   21.1N  58.5W     .0N    .0W 
SHIP        42KTS          47KTS          47KTS          45KTS 
DSHP        42KTS          47KTS          47KTS          45KTS 

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 

LATCUR =  14.1N LONCUR =  35.7W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR =  12KT 
LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 =  33.3W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 =  12KT 
LATM24 =  14.6N LONM24 =  31.0W 
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   30KT 
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M 
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM 

 

[Evil Jeremy]

Hopefully this one will dissipate so we can focus on the real threat out there.

Not trying to be sarcastic but where is the real threat?

Right behind TD2, its a big wave that all the models are developing and has the makings of a big threat to land down the road.

[jinftl]

or at least a threat to developing into a major.....the posts that have gotten my attention are not from posters who are going to make landfall predictions that far out....but a major gaining steam and at least heading on some degree of westerly course is scary enough. Just from reading various blogs from mets and posts from Derek on this board....a feeling that i have not felt at all this season about anything has made a return to me. not thinking any location or anything like that...just a bowling ball rolling down the atlantic....again, there are always doomsday claims and major 'pronouncements' on this board....but when certain folks starting talking about a threat of a major heading west, they absolutely get my attention. These are not 'tabloid' posters.

Hopefully this one will dissipate so we can focus on the real threat out there.

Not trying to be sarcastic but where is the real threat?

Right behind TD2, its a big wave that all the models are developing and has the makings of a big threat to land down the road.

[Brent]

Hopefully this one will dissipate so we can focus on the real threat out there.

I'm so irritated with this system so I agree.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully this one will dissipate so we can focus on the real threat out there.

I'm so irritated with this system so I agree.

Bring on invest 90L.

[gatorcane]

Well I did expect it to open back up into a wave and it appears it may just do so --- and not impact anybody.

i'm concentrating on the GFS wave still.

[Aric Dunn]

just figured i would post this.. been saving the images since yesterday morning..

shows the trend westward..

[srainhoutx]

Hopefully this one will dissipate so we can focus on the real threat out there.

Your "sacrifice" disturbance is paving the way with some moisture for that "real threat".

[HURAKAN]

WOW, hit hard.

[pojo]

Ouch, shear moved convection to the SW and rapidly dissipated it.