ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Nimbus]

The circulation no longer looks so elongated, the convection is on the increase and it looks like it is under a building high. It could easily be a TD by the 11PM forecast tonight. I don't think the models knew how to handle a system with elongated circulation. Are the models calling for the ULL near Puerto Rico to continue rolling SW with a ridge building in above it? That looks like it might be the element that will effect steering and sheer in the future.

[alan1961]

Here we go with this one, its ready to rumble, but not for long imo, the shear someone mentioned may disrupt this from getting really dangerous and with developement should come the lift in latitude to spare the islands, hopefully, IMO

[jlauderdal]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
NNNN

back to code orange, i believe ana went through several alert phases

[OURAGAN]

Shear is on the decrease along its path, moving in tandem with 94L, the center is at 11,2N, 45,1W (NRL)

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan AFD.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300829
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DEVELOPING TUTT LOW NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS AND HELP MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING TUTT LOW NORTH
OF PR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO DRIFT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AND SETTLE OVR HISPANIOLA BY MON
EVENING. VEERING WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HELP DRAW MOISTURE NWD FROM THE DEEP TROPICS INTO OUR AREA AND
KEEP US WET FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TUE-WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS HEIGHTS RISE AS MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE TROP ATLC BUILDS WESTWARD. HOWEVER...CAP DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT DO EXPECT A SIG DROP
IN CONVECTIVE CVRG.

THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
45W. FIRST IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE SHOW A MARKED
INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH A CIRCULATION TRYING TO CLOSE OFF NEAR
11.2N AND 45.1W. NOT SURE IF THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OR A SHORT TERM TREND GIVEN FVRBL CONVECTIVE
UPSWING SEEN WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AT NIGHT BUT SYSTEM DEFINITELY
LOOKING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HRS AGO. SVRL GLOBAL MODELS
STILL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
RELIABLE/CONSISTENT MODEL THIS YEAR TRACKS THIS SYSTEM VERY CLOSE
TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING IT SOUTH OF 20N
OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SYSTEM SLOWING
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT REACHES 55W. GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY.

[KWT]

This is looking much better again and center seems to be forming somewhat further north of where it was yesterday, could well develop by tonight.

[KWT]

FWIW the ECM has this system also reachingthe NE Caribbean for the first time, though I thinbk if it does develop it really should lift out quite quickly, maybe not as quick as some of the models but quick enough to avoid land...but we shall see!

[dixiebreeze]

Recon getting ready for 94L:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 291345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SAT 29 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK: POSSIBLE FIXES
NEAR 18N 54W BEGINNING AT 01/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON TROPICAL STORM DANNY
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0700Z.

[KWT]

That gives an indication where the NHC think this system will be, near 18/54...if that happens then this screasm recurve...the year of recruve.
Just need to watch for Bermuda possibly...and then the Caribbean later this year...

[cycloneye]

It will pass south of 15N-50W,the benchmark for the NE Caribbean islands (Guadeloupe northward,then west to Puerto Rico) to be affected directly by any system.Lets continue to watch the evolution of this system.

[alan1961]

Put your show on 94L before the shear of death comes down on you

[abajan]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
NNNN

I wonder why the NWS found it necessary to issue this special outlook when a regular one would have been scheduled to be released just 2 hours and 45 minutes later. Their sense of urgency is intriguing.

[KWT]

It will pass south of 15N-50W,the benchmark for the NE Caribbean islands (Guadeloupe northward,then west to Puerto Rico) to be affected directly by any system.Lets continue to watch the evolution of this system.

Giving recon is looking at going between 18N and 54W I'm not even sure the NHC think its going to make that benchmark as that would need a pretty decent NW motion to kick in shortly.

As for the shear, it all depends whether the upper high decides to keep in tandem with this system, quite possibly will...

[cycloneye]

The models haved been wacky on 94L.Can you imagine a model dissipating 94L in 18 hours? Well 06z GFDL does that

WHXX04 KWBC 301111
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 30

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.4 45.2 275./14.9
6 13.7 46.1 339./24.6
12 13.5 47.1 259./ 9.7
18 14.6 48.5 308./17.3

STORM DISSIPATED AT 18 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[crownweather]

It will pass south of 15N-50W,the benchmark for the NE Caribbean islands (Guadeloupe northward,then west to Puerto Rico) to be affected directly by any system.Lets continue to watch the evolution of this system.

Giving recon is looking at going between 18N and 54W I'm not even sure the NHC think its going to make that benchmark as that would need a pretty decent NW motion to kick in shortly.

As for the shear, it all depends whether the upper high decides to keep in tandem with this system, quite possibly will...

The 18/54 position from NHC's recon request was issued yesterday morning and since then it seems that 94L has been tracking further west than most of the dynamical models have forecast, so I tend to think it may go south of the 15/50 benchmark.

[HURAKAN]

Looking very good

[cycloneye]

Code Red

ABNT20 KNHC 301133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[Lurker]

Code Red looks like we have a player. Never ignore these things in the MDR in the peak season!

I was surprised to see NEXT posted so soon.

Dang Louis you are fast at posting the updates.

[Shockwave]

This system is looking very good this morning. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we have a TD later today, I guess many people on here wouldn't be surprised. When will RECON go into this system? Or will they even go in today since this isn't a huge threat to any land yet?

[KWT]

Yep code red now so this one looks like its on its way, looks like we also finally have a solid center to track so we can get a good idea of motion. Easterly shear still on it so it still should be a slower developer.