ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[USTropics]

To me it appears it's having to undergo some structural changes currently. First visible imagery this morning, it appears the mid-level circulation was lost (highlighted in yellow, low-level circulation highlighted in red).



Watch it with this loop:

[cycloneye]

A. 07L (GONZALO)

B. 23/1130Z

C. 9.6N

D. 47.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...CENTER REPOSITIONED S OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, BASED ON 0928Z
WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS. 4/10 BR BANDING WAS MEASURED AROUND THE LLCC,
RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AND PT ARE A 2.0 AND THE FT IS A 2.5,
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN T-NO TO 1.0/6HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

23/0928Z 9.6N 47.1W WINDSAT

[supercane4867]

Center has relocated possibly closer to under the deep convection.

[northjaxpro]

Center has relocated possibly closer to under the deep convection.

It has I believe.

[Ivanhater]

Center has relocated possibly closer to under the deep convection.

If it has, those storms are already weakening. I will be suprised if he survives today, if there still is a LLC

[cheezyWXguy]

Had an eye before it even had a name, and now has a near-exposed llc as a strong TS. Go figure...

[USTropics]

Unfortunately Gonzalo's size was a double edged sword. It needed to remain small and within the protective pouch it created, the environment outside of that bubble was just too stable. When the pressure began to drop and the circulation increased, an increase in subsidence occurred in the inflow layer. That disrupted the mid-upper level flow, and with the upper-level moisture being tugged NW by the pressure gradient of the two stable air masses, the upper-level circulation most likely became decoupled. That left the mid-level circulation behind (which quickly dissipated), and essentially Gonzalo is having to start over again.

[aspen]

Unfortunately Gonzalo's size was a double edged sword. It needed to remain small and within the protective pouch it created, the environment outside of that bubble was just too stable. When the pressure began to drop and the circulation increased, an increase in subsidence occurred in the inflow layer. That disrupted the mid-upper level flow, and with the upper-level moisture being tugged NW by the pressure gradient of the two stable air masses, the upper-level circulation most likely became decoupled. That left the mid-level circulation behind (which quickly dissipated), and essentially Gonzalo is having to start over again.

The biggest question is, where will the center reform? Further south and it could escape the SAL, but too far north, and it’s likely screwed.

[RT23]

What are the chances this is downgraded at 11? Look like a huge struggle to maintain CoC

[ColdMiser123]

Didn't expect Gonzalo to be this disorganized this morning. Small systems are a double edged sword, since they can intensify rapidly, but at the same time, fall apart quickly. Gonzalo falling apart as quickly as it did does lend more credence to the global solutions that show this struggling going forward.

It almost looks like as though Gonzalo's outflow has spawned an MCS out ahead of it, which may act to moisten that environment. For now, it has a lot of work to do, since as others have noted, it appears that the LLC is not directly located over where the deepest convection is currently.

[abajan]

What are the chances this is downgraded at 11? Look like a huge struggle to maintain CoC

Dunno. My guess is it'll just be a tropical wave by the time it reaches our area. But who knows, it may surprise us again.

[ConvergenceZone]

Bye bye Gonzalo. This is a good thing though, as there will be plenty of TSs and Hurricanes to deal with this year, more than likely. It’s gonna be a crazy season

[USTropics]

Unfortunately Gonzalo's size was a double edged sword. It needed to remain small and within the protective pouch it created, the environment outside of that bubble was just too stable. When the pressure began to drop and the circulation increased, an increase in subsidence occurred in the inflow layer. That disrupted the mid-upper level flow, and with the upper-level moisture being tugged NW by the pressure gradient of the two stable air masses, the upper-level circulation most likely became decoupled. That left the mid-level circulation behind (which quickly dissipated), and essentially Gonzalo is having to start over again.

The biggest question is, where will the center reform? Further south and it could escape the SAL, but too far north, and it’s likely screwed.

The LLC is still quite vigorous (highlighted in red below), and can be observed with visible satellite imagery. There is still convection being fired (and with heights). The key over the next few hours is if it can start to rotate this new convection (purple) around the LLC.


What would prevent this is an increase in forward speed as a result of increasing easterly low-level flow as it approaches the Caribbean (which would have been negated some by a vertically stacked system). Essentially the LLC may just outrun this new convection before being able to rotate around the mean center axis, something to watch for in the next few hours. Gonzalo is on life support for sure, but not quite dead yet.

[abajan]

Unfortunately Gonzalo's size was a double edged sword. It needed to remain small and within the protective pouch it created, the environment outside of that bubble was just too stable. When the pressure began to drop and the circulation increased, an increase in subsidence occurred in the inflow layer. That disrupted the mid-upper level flow, and with the upper-level moisture being tugged NW by the pressure gradient of the two stable air masses, the upper-level circulation most likely became decoupled. That left the mid-level circulation behind (which quickly dissipated), and essentially Gonzalo is having to start over again.

"Starting all over again is gonna be rough ..."

[hurricaneCW]

Models were never gung-ho on this to begin with and it appears they were right. This thing is quickly disintegrating into an open wave.

Unless it ramps up later it'll be downgraded soon.

[cainjamin]

Not looking great. The thunderstorms west of the center are shooting out outflow boundaries so expect that convection to collapse in the next few hours. A great example of how fragile these tiny storms are.

[TheStormExpert]

Well Gonzalo is definitely on its death bed. Unless things change fast it’s going to go poof!

Wonder if this is a sign of things to come? As SAL and mid-level dry air don’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. This storm definitely underperformed.

[shiny-pebble]

Well Gonzalo is definitely on its death bed. Unless things change fast it’s going to go poof!

Wonder if this is a sign of things to come? As SAL and mid-level dry air don’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. This storm definitely underperformed.

It's July 23rd

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[USTropics]

Well Gonzalo is definitely on its death bed. Unless things change fast it’s going to go poof!

Wonder if this is a sign of things to come? As SAL and mid-level dry air don’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. This storm definitely underperformed.

I personally think it over performed. Given the background state, there really shouldn't be a system here:


This is what happens when you have a vigorous AEW that is able to create a sustainable pouch. If it's a sign of things to come, it's not a good sign.

[CyclonicFury]

Well Gonzalo is definitely on its death bed. Unless things change fast it’s going to go poof!

Wonder if this is a sign of things to come? As SAL and mid-level dry air don’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. This storm definitely underperformed.

It still managed to form in the MDR in July, which IMO is still a red flag for peak. Hurricanes in the MDR east of the Antilles in July are very rare.