Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

We don’t make assumptions for cold 2 weeks out so we shouldn’t be doing it with warmth. Especially with all the cold and snow pack up north.

[Brent]

Lol even the TV met is posting the record highs for Christmas. Never a great sign

Maybe this will go like when they hype snow here and it doesn't happen

[Stratton23]

I know its the GFS long range lol, but it it showing some pretty big changes just a day or two after christmas, very strong poleward - EPO ridging and se ridge starts to flatten somewhat

[Golfisnoteasy75]

I know its the GFS long range lol, but it it showing some pretty big changes just a day or two after christmas, very strong poleward - EPO ridging and se ridge starts to flatten somewhat

Stratton, the eps was hinting at that also with the epo. If the gefs and eps start to show it consistently, then watch out below!!

[Brent]

I'm just hoping January is good at this point i do have some hope there

I have zero confidence in Christmas not being warm. There's too many signals and people talking about it. For one thing the GFS was an absolute embarrassment during Melissa inside a week! So if we're pinning our hopes on it yikes

[Stratton23]

Golfisnteasy75 possibly, but i wouldn’t get excited, ita probably gone on the next run, but hey when the pattern looks like an absolute snoozefest, what else is their to talk about lol? But still worth watching how ensembles trend with the telconnections

[Stratton23]

Brent yup, gold old GFS lol, but hey when you got a boring pattern like this, i just figure bringing up what long range models show will at least keep the thread from going dormant hahaha

[txtwister78]

We don’t make assumptions for cold 2 weeks out so we shouldn’t be doing it with warmth. Especially with all the cold and snow pack up north.

Too many signals for warmth to ignore and so if you know what you're looking at in that regard assumptions turn into pattern drivers that create greater forecast confidence.

Nothing on the horizon just yet shows a cold signal (teleconnections etc) for our region of the country hence the ensemble guidance and CPC outlook. So I'd say data is your friend or not if you're looking for cold.

To your point though, it's not as if arctic cold hasn't been making visits into the US, but until we see some teleconnection alignment Texas will continue to be just on the outside of these arctic intrusions.

[Stratton23]

and the ECCMWF server just went ka poof, data is delayed on the AIFS, EPS, AIFS ensemble and Euro Op, gotta love it when that happens

[Golfisnoteasy75]

and the ECCMWF server just went ka poof, data is delayed on the AIFS, EPS, AIFS ensemble and Euro Op, gotta love it when that happens

Is it still out?

[Stratton23]

Golfisnteasy75 just now finally running

[Brent]

The end of the Euro AI definitely builds the snow pack more into the Rockies where we need it. That's the biggest problem we have currently. It's not where we need it. Endless snow in Iowa will never help Texas no matter how much cold is in Canada

It probably won't help us for Christmas either and yeah it's still very warm looking but that should setup January at some point

At this point I think for Christmas we should hope for some clouds and rain. I still see people here talking about it may be unsettled. That's probably the only way we're avoiding a run for record highs

Yeah don't even bother looking at the 6z GFS for Christmas it's almost 70 into Nebraska

It does get much colder after Christmas though

[Golfisnoteasy75]

The end of the Euro AI definitely builds the snow pack more into the Rockies where we need it. That's the biggest problem we have currently. It's not where we need it. Endless snow in Iowa will never help Texas no matter how much cold is in Canada

It probably won't help us for Christmas either and yeah it's still very warm looking but that should setup January at some point

At this point I think for Christmas we should hope for some clouds and rain. I still see people here talking about it may be unsettled. That's probably the only way we're avoiding a run for record highs

Yeah don't even bother looking at the 6z GFS for Christmas it's almost 70 into Nebraska

It does get much colder after Christmas though

I agree. The trajectory hasn't been ideal in our area. Hope it changes eventually, which i think it will. Alot of patience is required.

[TomballEd]

The whole time the big ridge near Siberia and the Aleutians just moves a bit east and pushes the EPac trough causing flooding in the Pac NW a little E, the air forecast in Alaska/the Yukon, near 20*F below normal (and the Yukon is not warm in late December) could ride down E of the Rockies under its own density with mid level flow from the Pacific, exciting things could happen. Euro weeklies may finally be heading to that past mid-January but I don't get excited by climate models (in winter). But Arctic airmasses and winter weather down to the I-10 corridor doesn't look to happen in 2025. GEPS and 0Z GEFS generally support a 'torch' as Mid-Atlantic and NE winter weather aficionados would say. >50F is there definition of a late December torch, Temps near/exceeding 70F for most of Texas Christmas and the most wonderful time of the year, bowl games, the CFP playoffs and both Saturday and Sunday NFL action. EPS are the most torchy but they all are normal to above normal. The Red River may be a battleground for Pacific fronts and a winter version of mT air or weak disturbances may have enough instability for the normal winter shear to work with for hail, especially.






The torch

[TomballEd]

Was going to EDIT TO ADD but that became a TL;DR post.

Sneaky winter threat possible N of I-20, I have seen 50F days followed by snow or ice the next day without an airmass change if dewpoints were low enough. During my 6 years in Austin (changed to a different engineering major, did a year of grad school but good jobs in the oilfield (and Acadiana and especially Lake Charles area saw a pretty stout ice storm (the big trees between Texas and the casinos on I-10 aren't quite back to their mid-1990s glory) sent me to Lafayette. Grad school was killed by 'Systems of Linear Differential Equations' and a 'Gentlemen's C'. Reservoir modeling uses immense computing power solving for mass balances, Darcy's law and the diffusivity equation, thermo and phase changes. At the time oil companies used super computers. I got an A as an undergrad in matrix algebra but that was all rote algorithm with no concept taught for why matrices were so big)

Laid off in 1998, got hired as a temp by SONAT in Houston for a few months, Halliburton trained me in Houston for 3 months than sent me back to New Iberia where I learned to hate sugar cane, farm tractors going 10 mph on state road 89 towing big loads of cane to the refineries, creating mile long backups (once one car isn't brave enough to pass, nobody can pass) with slick spots from fallen and crushed cane on the road and then the burning of the fields. Good food, not a place anyone not from there would ever want to live).

[Ntxw]

The end of the Euro AI definitely builds the snow pack more into the Rockies where we need it. That's the biggest problem we have currently. It's not where we need it. Endless snow in Iowa will never help Texas no matter how much cold is in Canada

It probably won't help us for Christmas either and yeah it's still very warm looking but that should setup January at some point

At this point I think for Christmas we should hope for some clouds and rain. I still see people here talking about it may be unsettled. That's probably the only way we're avoiding a run for record highs

Yeah don't even bother looking at the 6z GFS for Christmas it's almost 70 into Nebraska

It does get much colder after Christmas though

I agree. The trajectory hasn't been ideal in our area. Hope it changes eventually, which i think it will. Alot of patience is required.

If I'm being honest, it isn't looking well for the region. There are two signs that say things down the road may have issues. One the Aleutian ridge is going flat, away from poleward. In winter this is your classic precursor warmth pattern for us, just as much as the Aleutian low signals cold later on the opposite end. Second the flooding in the Pacific NW, making news, is another sign mild, moist Pacific air will eventually erode Canada's cold air down the road. Both are connected. Does not mean intrusions of cold air won't happen, but the flags are there that long range modeled cold is now probably fantasy. For the time being.

[Stratton23]

My souls crushed lol

[Ntxw]

We just cant have nice things down here nowdays, la nina cant weaken soon enough!

It is what it is for now, unfortunately. I think so far it's been a typical winter for us with some cold, now balancing out with some warmth. It may average out to be normal, to slightly above for December as a whole when done. There may be a wholesale shift mid January as the west gets colder, maybe it will bleed out.

Might get a system to cross after Christmas, I'm sure many of us will take some rain.

[Gotwood]

The end of the Euro AI definitely builds the snow pack more into the Rockies where we need it. That's the biggest problem we have currently. It's not where we need it. Endless snow in Iowa will never help Texas no matter how much cold is in Canada

It probably won't help us for Christmas either and yeah it's still very warm looking but that should setup January at some point

At this point I think for Christmas we should hope for some clouds and rain. I still see people here talking about it may be unsettled. That's probably the only way we're avoiding a run for record highs

Yeah don't even bother looking at the 6z GFS for Christmas it's almost 70 into Nebraska

It does get much colder after Christmas though

I agree. The trajectory hasn't been ideal in our area. Hope it changes eventually, which i think it will. Alot of patience is required.

If I'm being honest, it isn't looking well for the region. There are two signs that say things down the road may have issues. One the Aleutian ridge is going flat, away from poleward. In winter this is your classic precursor warmth pattern for us, just as much as the Aleutian low signals cold later on the opposite end. Second the flooding in the Pacific NW, making news, is another sign mild, moist Pacific air will eventually erode Canada's cold air down the road. Both are connected. Does not mean intrusions of cold air won't happen, but the flags are there that long range modeled cold is now probably fantasy. For the time being.

Winter cancel?

[Brent]

I will say I saw someone even in Kansas earlier who wasn't all that excited about winter...I hope they are wrong. But sometimes it's hard to break these patterns once they setup. The Pacific air is a big concern. All this talk about El nino coming next year but that's exactly what happened last time we had that and the snow holes that about broke me

Well see obviously but my ultimate fear is a winter like 11-12 still