Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Well... I would not say lucky. I do know a thing or two about weather patterns!!

Anyways... this is all fascinating. If we get a major arctic blast and heavy widespread snow in the lowlands I will concede that you are the true expert when it comes to Northwest weather. I am serious. You will have proven that you know the PNW climate better than I do.

Part of me hopes that I have to make this concession. I hope somebody has it figured out so well that I can rely on their expertise to guide us. Plus... we can all enjoy a major snowstorm.

Of course if it does not happen... I will still respect your weather skills because you are very knowledgeable. But you will be like the rest of us constantly trying figure out what could possibly happen next... instead of knowing!!

I agree on your Alaska comments... the cold air has to be somewhere. But it has to build up first and then the pattern has to be perfect to bring it to Seattle. So much has to happen and I don't even see the start.

I stand by my prediction... lower snow levels but no lowland snow.

We might have another so-so event and we will not know who was right. Meaning... a weak arctic push that brings heavy snow in Bellingham... some snow in Everett... and no snow elsewhere. Are you predicting a repeat of last week's disappointment or a real storm like 1990 or 1996??

[snow_wizzard]

I read a very interesting thing on the NCDC site yesterday...they said the weather patterns this winter are not being caused by the very weak El Nino. They actually said there is no sign that the El Nino has had any effect on the atmosphere this winter AT ALL. They are convinced that other factors are at play this time. It does seem that the MJO has been the key player this winter. It normally shifts from + to - every three weeks or so, and we are currently just passing the peak of a strong + phase, hence the warm weather. The MJO should be negative again by early February, so that will represent a great chance for us to get some cold weather again. There is often about a 1 week lag time from the MJO going minus to us getting cold. With the experts saying the El Nino is a non issue this winter, we still have hope!

As for climate change....I do believe we are in a period of unusual warmth (globally speaking), but still not as warm as 1000 years ago. I have seen many reports which state, climate trends can change dramatically and with little warning. A case in point...we had a very warm period from 1938 - 1945 in this region, which was followed by an amazing drop from 1946 - 1957. There was no transitioin period at all...it just simply plunged with no warning. What has happened before can easily happen again. I have two theories about how this may play out. Possibility number 1 (my favorite) is...since the current mild period has been so extreme, it may be offset by an equally extreme cold period. Picture it like a huge roller coaster...the bigger the hill, the bigger the drop. Or like an oscilliscope....higher waves offset by deeper troughs. Possibilty number 2 is...the current extreme warm period is being caused by global warming. As a result, our next cold period would not be as deep as the 1946 - 75 cold period. Either way, I certainly see the next decade being a lot colder than the previous 10 years. We are simply due for a shift to our cold climate phase.

[snow_wizzard]

I am thinking our cold spell will be a more widespread event...especially with the snow. I am safe in saying that because late Jan - early Mar cold spells almost always have widespread snow. As far as the severity of cold...I would not expect Dec 1990 levels. I would say some 30 degree or so highs in Seattle. On the other hand...given the amazing levels of warmth we have seen this past week, it must be stressed that the atmosphere could be capable of dishing out a much more severe event. You must always be on your guard when such EXTREME things happen. I don't think I have ever seen such an amazing warm spell in January. The events of the last year or so lead me to wonder if we might be entering a 1930s type regime. That decade was marked by extremes of all kinds....Drought, record rainfall, intense cold, tremendous warmth, monster snowstorms, etc.

[R-Dub]

Good morning! Warm and dry here at the moment.

1/23/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:45:32 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 56.9
Humidity (%) 77.4
Wind (mph) SE 1.5
Daily Rain (") 0.01
Pressure ("Hg) 30.04
Dew Point: 50.0 ºF

[andycottle]

Here at 8:52am, we have cloudy skies with a temp of 51 and humidity 100% and baro 29.83 and steady. Did have little fog earlier, but has since dispated. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Well its such a nice morning, think i'll go out and wash my gravel pit....I mean my truck! Am I the only one that gets extremely agitated when the state covers the roads around here with 3" of sand everytime we have a dusting of snow? Drives me nuts! At least they don't use salt though, this day in age that is just dumb! Don't know why other states still use that crap! I don't care much for the "friendly" deicer that this state uses either, but it doesn't completely ruin a vehicle like salt. I say put a LITTLE sand down if its compact snow and ice, and leave it alone. Maybe that would discourage the people that don't have a clue from going out and killing themselves or someone else! Its funny, when we had big storms that stuck around for a while like 1985, and 1990 they only used a little sand once and a while, roads were compact snow/ice for weeks, people learned how to drive on it, and everyone got around just fine!!!

Okay I am done ranting, now time to spend the next 3 hrs scrubing gentily the small granulars of sand off, not to scratch the paint

[AnthonyC]

It's amazing what 12 hours can do to the GFS model. It once again proves it's unreliable for long-range forecasting. There's a WEAK ridge over the western states in the beginning of February, but a possible trough develops thereafter. Can we trust this? Probably not...it will probably do another 180 tomorrow morning. But at least it doesn't show a highly amplified ridge sitting over California, Washington and Oregon. By February 7, 500 mb heights are down to 528 which is a cool airmass. Hopefully this helps the snowpack in the mountains. We talk about snow in the lowlands, but we REALLY need it in the mountains. I would prefer 3 feet of snow in the mountains to 3 inches in the lowlands. We need this snow/water for the summer. As for today, not looking like a bad weather day. Maybe some light rain this morning and again tomorrow afternoon, but nothing extreme or extensive...at least what meteorologists were predicting on Thursday.

Anthony

Currently 49 F...coolest it's been in over a week!!

[sertorius]

Anthony C:

I really do enjoy this thread!! Watching the gfs will make you pull your hair out. 12Z yesterday it had a strong low about 100 miles south of me in a full blown snow storm next Sunday and on the 0z and 06z as well-now, the 12z today takes the storm thru southern Texas. Long range gfs can show some trends but even those are weak at best-watch out, the 12z is about to bring the ridge back full blown at 384 hours!!! Even more so, it is now trending my area in the central plains 5-10 degress colder for Thursday than before-last Sunday, I was supp. to be 55 yesterday-my high was 17!!!!! I know there is a storm comming out of the south west next weekend-where it goes is still way up in the air!!!

[AnthonyC]

Just called my aunt in New York and they have 22 inches of snow on the ground, with wind gusts up to 40 mph. She said this storm was in great comparison to the January 1996 blizzard...but not quite as extensive. There are some snow drifts up to four feet and everything is blowing around because of the wind. She described it almost as the surface of the moon. She hasn't seen one person on the road since 9am Saturday morning. The snow has finally stopped, but the current temperature is 11 degrees. Unbelievable stuff. NOT FAIR IF YOU ASK ME!!!

[AnthonyC]

Sertorius:

The GFS long-range model is pure crap if you ask me. It doesn't even show trends, because it changes drastically every 24 hours. For example, just yesterday a highly amplified ridge was sitting over Washington and Oregon with 500 mb heights up to almost 570. Today, the weaker ridge is located in Utah, Colorado and 500 mb heights drastically lower to 530 by the beginning of February. But like I've said before, it will probably be completely different tomorrow morning. The GFS model is only good 72 hours in advance. But after that, it's pure crap.

Anthony

[sertorius]

No doubt man-no doubt!!!! They should only run it twice a day!! It does still show lowered hts. and the 850 0 line in western Washington at 384 hrs!!! Hey, the gfs is good to make you dream and keep your hopes up!!!!

[R-Dub]

Anthony, check your PM.

[R-Dub]

Yeah even though TT has been accurate most of the time (I hear you gloating TT ) I think we are putting too much stock into what Feb will do based on the GFS. That is why I am using my old school method of not using the models, rather I'm using past events. Like I said yesterday, and Snowwiz is backing me up on this that we are in, and continue to be in a pattern very similar to Jan/Feb 1996. We will see a MAJOR event sometime in Febuary! Winter isn't even half over, we have a long long way to go before the first of April comes!!!!!

[Brian_from_bellingham]

I hope RDub and SnowWizzard are right, I would love to see it. And we do know that the GFS in the long range cannot be trusted, especially in the details. However, I have found that the PNA forecast has been pretty accurate, and they do not flip flop from day to day. And that is why I am not real optimistic, at least not yet, since the forecasts have been consistent in showing only a brief turn to a negative PNA, and then back toward nuetral and then positive. That is what I look for in the long run, not the latest GFS, which changes all the time.

At least the AO forecast is looking better, with it going well below 0 and staying there in the long term. If the PNA forecast were to change in a similar way, then we could be in business.

[snow_wizzard]

I am now doubtful that it will get cold within the next two weeks. None of the tools I use is looking good for that time frame. The GFS has really done away with the idea of any major ridge over the US during the next two weeks. I am discouraged by the fact the shorter term is not showing any well defined cold front any time soon. That is not good news for the mountains.

I still think it is likely we will get cold by mid Feb or so. That is entirely based on past history of what normally comes after the wild temperature swings of the past few weeks. It seems unimaginable that the UNBELIEVEABLE warmth of the past 5 days could go unchecked. We still have another 6 weeks before it's too late, so there is plenty of time. The best news at this point is the entire lower 48 is supposed to be warmer than normal, after the last of the cold exits the east. That will open the door for Alaska to get cold.

[R-Dub]

I did a little checking, here are the years where the average temp for Febuary was colder then the average temp for January, from 1914 to 2003..........

1918
1923
1931
1933
1936
1939
1953
1956
1959
1964
1976
1981
1986
1989
1990
1994
1999
2001
2003

[snow_wizzard]

I have never seen it so warm in January. Today we currently have 53 degrees, which in itself is not remarkable, but the fact that we just had fog develop in the middle of the day with such a high temp is astounding. The dew point has been over 50 for almost a week straight. That is just plain freaky! I am about sick of this pathetic limp weather! It is so damp and gross that a piece of paper turns into mush after being exposed to the outside air for more than a minute. Right now a high of 40 would be like heaven!

[krysof]

Well here in the east we had 2 weeks of way above normal temperatures. Starting January 1st. Highs were generally in the upper 40's 50's and even mid 60's for a couple of days. We had 3 days of highs in the upper 30's during the mild stretch, but when the front was passing, temperatures rose quickly into the 50's and topped out at 67 degrees for about an hour and then temps dropped like a rock into the 30's and 20's later that night. I will not complain anymore about snow and cold because I got 16 inches of snow. Too luck for you guys, hopefully things will change by February. Temperatures here have been below freezing for highs since the night of the 14th when the arctic front passed.

[AnthonyC]

Like snow_wizzard stated, when there's a plus there's always a minus...everything equals itself out. It's been unusually mild this past week, so you'd think we'd be unusually cold fairly soon. Still, no models even hint at arctic air coming from Canada. But look at the Northeast...everyone was writing the winter off, but look at what just happened!! They got clobbered with a major blizzard. And another thing...seems ALL models did a poor job with this weekend and early next week. A major pineapple express my butt!! And even early next week isn't shaping up to be too bad...cloudy and mild. A more progressive pattern is forecasted to take shape by Thursday, but I continue to have doubts. At least NO ONE in the country will have arctic air after Tuesday...it makes me feel a little better.

Anthony

[cloud9]

I think it's time for us to do the SNOW DANCE