ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[GCANE]

Looking on the north shore of Cuba, good south winds into the axis; but no apparent west winds at the moment.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/custom/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=10&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&zoom=1&palette=ir.pal&quality=100&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=22.4&lon=-77

[SFLcane]

There still running models for it...12z bams bring the moisture close to sfl.

[ozonepete]

Looks like everyone's focused on the right area. I circled where I see best rotation going on - not closed but looks like it's trying to close off and convection is growing towards middle of that circle.

[plasticup]

If this were a new Invest rather than a remnant I think we would be really excited about. By which I mean, we should be really excited about this.

(and we are!)

[GCANE]

Shear not bad, pretty-good boundary-layer moisture; uncapped.

[caneman]

I see convection on IR building back around a center. Run a loop. May be back in action tomorrow!

[marciacubed]

It looks like it has a good chance to develop since the SST are in the 80's in that area. IMO This is just my opinion and is not a forecast.

[caneman]

If it does come back who gets the credit? Certainly not the Euro. with respect to Avilia. Seems a couple of other models had the West solution and then lost it over Cuba/Hisp. Anyone know which models those were. Always good to check the reliability.

[NDG]

It looks like it has a good chance to develop since the SST are in the 80's in that area. IMO This is just my opinion and is not a forecast.

Not just 80s, very hot upper 80s.

[Sanibel]

I can't believe a TS LLC dissipated over water in the Caribbean in August.

[NDG]

I can't believe a TS LLC dissipated over water in the Caribbean in August.

Due to the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, not over water.

[marciacubed]

It looks like it has a good chance to develop since the SST are in the 80's in that area. IMO This is just my opinion and is not a forecast.

Not just 80s, very hot upper 80s.

Yea I know ! Just trying to be conservative in my statement.

[NDG]

BTW, the H85 vorticity on the 12z gfs was started spot on the area that we are looking at this morning, lets see what it does with it.

Edit, for the short term it does not do much with it, moves it towards Andros Island.

[Vortex]

slowly coming together...enviromental conditions look good....

[crimi481]

This getting very interesting
Low center energy jumped over Cuba - re-forming on N. Coast. And I do not see why NHC thinks it will go N. then N.E.
See the "ridge line" building to the "low swirl's" North - pushing everything towards west. Do you see weekness in that Ridge (like a trough?)
High clouds seem to be converging to center (from all sides) -as shear lessened some

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Best to click on WV Animation - see the ridge - North of Emily
Florida "may" be in picture here. (opinion -based on Sat Imiges)

[plasticup]

I can't believe a TS LLC dissipated over water in the Caribbean in August.

Mountains shred circulation.

[jlauderdal]

If this were a new Invest rather than a remnant I think we would be really excited about. By which I mean, we should be really excited about this.

(and we are!)

when are they sending da plane? this thing continues ramping up this afternoon they better have the tanks topped off and ready to roll out of miami...dont want to hear about any avionics issues, data transmission errors, etc...they have a solid 8 months of the year to have this stuff worked out in advance

[wxman57]

First of all, there isn't any low center north of Cuba. There is some lower-level rotation evident but no evidence of a closed low center. Pressures are a bit high in the area north of Cuba now. Conditions aloft are not ideal for redevelopment. Shear is still present and the shear won't likely diminish much in the next 24 hours as the disturbance passes east of Florida. And the reason it's forecast to turn off to the north and northeast is the projected steering pattern, governed by the placement of the high pressure area east of the disturbance and the trof along the East U.S. Coast. Here's a graphic illustrating the steering flow for tomorrow night. Even if it was to redevelop by tomorrow night, it would be on its way out to sea shortly thereafter. Regardless of what happens, you'll be lucky to see much rain out of it across the FL peninsula when it passes to the east tomorrow.

[cpdaman]

lol just on schedule

[petit_bois]

not even a fish... simply fish bait