Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman22]

OUN already has a 40% chance of freezing rain/rain here next Wednesday.

[wxman57]

Setup just does not look good for any significant cold and/or ice across Texas next week. Zero cross-Polar flow this time. Flow northward into eastern Alaska then southeast to the contiguous states. Normal winter pattern. Euro is coldest, with mid 20s into the D-FW area late next week, but only mid to upper 30s here in Houston. Normal weather. Not so normal across New England. Both models have up to 4-6 ft of snow from western NY to Maine over the next 12 days. Yes, my wall is doing its job in deflecting all the cold air east.

MAWA!

[gpsnowman]

MACA!! It's coming 57!!!

[wxman57]

MACA!! It's coming 57!!!

If you remember, I was quite bullish on the Jan 21 snow event. When I see it, I'll say it. However, I'm not seeing it this time. Just a normal winter pattern for us. Likely not even a freeze for Houston. You northerners (D-FW) can enjoy a little cold rain and sleet, possibly.

Meanwhile I'll enjoy the still cool highs around 80 degrees. Had my desktop space heater going yesterday. Just couldn't get warm.

[Lastcall88]

Setup just does not look good for any significant cold and/or ice across Texas next week. Zero cross-Polar flow this time. Flow northward into eastern Alaska then southeast to the contiguous states. Normal winter pattern. Euro is coldest, with mid 20s into the D-FW area late next week, but only mid to upper 30s here in Houston. Normal weather. Not so normal across New England. Both models have up to 4-6 ft of snow from western NY to Maine over the next 12 days. Yes, my wall is doing its job in deflecting all the cold air east.

MAWA!

Just so ya know, I sent some helpers out for the wall. Got my first sweat of the season and felt so good! Don't need to be swinging a bat in 30 degree weather....MAWA!!!

[gpsnowman]

MACA!! It's coming 57!!!

If you remember, I was quite bullish on the Jan 21 snow event. When I see it, I'll say it. However, I'm not seeing it this time. Just a normal winter pattern for us. Likely not even a freeze for Houston. You northerners (D-FW) can enjoy a little cold rain and sleet, possibly.

Meanwhile I'll enjoy the still cool highs around 80 degrees. Had my desktop space heater going yesterday. Just couldn't get warm.

Cool highs at 80 with a space heater in Houston and can't get warm. My goodness.

[orangeblood]

Setup just does not look good for any significant cold and/or ice across Texas next week. Zero cross-Polar flow this time. Flow northward into eastern Alaska then southeast to the contiguous states. Normal winter pattern. Euro is coldest, with mid 20s into the D-FW area late next week, but only mid to upper 30s here in Houston. Normal weather. Not so normal across New England. Both models have up to 4-6 ft of snow from western NY to Maine over the next 12 days. Yes, my wall is doing its job in deflecting all the cold air east.

MAWA!

With all due respect, there is nothing "normal" about this pattern. The flow is straight out of the Arctic circle with a 4 std deviation ridge in Alaska and Greenland. We had a 30-40F temp bust in northern Texas into Oklahoma yesterday, what makes you think model output is a good forecast with this pattern ?

This 500mb look fits most historical ice storm analogs we have for southern plains ice storms

[wxman22]

NAM vs GFS on Sunday evening…

[wxman57]

With all due respect, there is nothing "normal" about this pattern. The flow is straight out of the Arctic circle with a 4 std deviation ridge in Alaska and Greenland. We had a 30-40F temp bust in northern Texas into Oklahoma yesterday, what makes you think model output is a good forecast with this pattern ?

This 500mb look fits most historical ice storm analogs we have for southern plains ice storms

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1738821600/1739340000-4LEfVA65vws.png

What do you think is going to happen? I'm seeing a little snow for northern OK. Coldest temps in D-FW and Houston?

[CaptinCrunch]

NAM over GFS since we just saw how bad the GFS performed Tuesday, which the GFS has historically been poor with Arctic air flow and temps. As for precip types it's still to early to call, but I would expect if any winter wx happens next week it will be an over night event with the coldest temps in place.

[orangeblood]

With all due respect, there is nothing "normal" about this pattern. The flow is straight out of the Arctic circle with a 4 std deviation ridge in Alaska and Greenland. We had a 30-40F temp bust in northern Texas into Oklahoma yesterday, what makes you think model output is a good forecast with this pattern ?

This 500mb look fits most historical ice storm analogs we have for southern plains ice storms

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1738821600/1739340000-4LEfVA65vws.png

What do you think is going to happen? I'm seeing a little snow for northern OK. Coldest temps in D-FW and Houston?

Seeing how models are performing currently with this airmass and major model busts of past winter seasons, a major temp bust seems more than likely at this point.

I think it's not unrealistic to cut these temps next Wednesday morning by 10-15 Deg F across Texasa, freezing line much further south when bulk of precip moving thru

[TomballEd]

With all due respect, there is nothing "normal" about this pattern. The flow is straight out of the Arctic circle with a 4 std deviation ridge in Alaska and Greenland. We had a 30-40F temp bust in northern Texas into Oklahoma yesterday, what makes you think model output is a good forecast with this pattern ?

This 500mb look fits most historical ice storm analogs we have for southern plains ice storms

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1738821600/1739340000-4LEfVA65vws.png

What do you think is going to happen? I'm seeing a little snow for northern OK. Coldest temps in D-FW and Houston?

Seeing how models are performing currently with this airmass and major model busts of past winter seasons, a major temp bust seems more than likely at this point.

I think it's not unrealistic to cut these temps next Wednesday morning by 10-15 Deg F across Texasa, freezing line much further south when bulk of precip moving thru

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1738843200/1739361600-YQ4hAf0cEAU.png

6am temps near 60F sound ok to me. I got my follow-up with my eye surgeon. New lenses put in are prescription. Repaired right eye is fine w/o glasses for distance, like driving, but I can't read anything. I'll need to buy readers I suppose. With a little chain so they can hang around my neck when I'm not using them. They give really good drugs.

Beyond next week ensembles don't really seem to suggest much cold weather the third week of February.

[Stratton23]

I largely suspect spring could be delayed hugely this year, models are swinging nearly the entire lobe of the polar vortex to the North American side of the world with warming in asia/ Europe, around february 20th

[GeauxTigers]

I largely suspect spring could be delayed hugely this year, models are swinging nearly the entire lobe of the polar vortex to the North American side of the world with warming in asia/ Europe, around february 20th

If this decreases tornadic storms in N TX this spring then I'm all for it. Last spring was crazy up here, as well as a lot of other places.

[wxman22]

Good support for a winterstorm next Wednesday on the GFS ensembles.

[Ralph's Weather]

Good support for a winterstorm next Wednesday on the GFS ensembles.

https://i.ibb.co/zTsDJFjM/IMG-0219.jpg

Its getting there but likely still too warm. DFW needs to watch for an icing event mid week with some threat further SE depending how much more push this cold has.

[Brent]

One of our mets has declared the arctic air is here to stay with ice potential next week

Remembers when Saturday was gonna be warm

[snownado]

As of 3pm, DFW has tied the record high of 83*F today.

Gorgeous!!!

[Stratton23]

84 degrees here, Its awful as it gets, this weather is beyond disgusting, I can see the mosquitoes flying around, yuck

[Yukon Cornelius]

55 here with a good north wind. This back and forth this week up here has been wild .