ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

That may well be where its at cpdaman given the shear the center should be right on the SW side. Still radar is hard to really tell, does look like a NW motion on it but its tough to say.

[Ground_Zero_92]

eye balling a 320 degree NW motion for last hour per cuban radar, puts it now on the SW edge of convection.

Thats right cpdaman, it does look like it's moving NW. When I said that it was moving NW as it was aproaching the northern Cuban coast, about 1 - 1 1/2 hours ago, i was basically told that I was nuts.

[Evil Jeremy]

Remember that the winds are mainly on the east side of the system, so SFL will be feeling the wind and rain impacts today, regardless of landfall point, if any.

[cpdaman]

the SW side of her is getting eaten by a ULL the shear is pretty solid SSW erl'y ,perhaps the shear will lesten over next couple hours, who knows but right now i think only minimal lop sided strengthening may occur as she slides NW into open water as i type

[caneman]

eye balling a 320 degree NW motion for last hour per cuban radar, puts it now on the SW edge of convection.

Thats right cpdaman, it does look like it's moving NW. When I said that it was moving NW as it was coming off Cuba about 1 - 1 1/2 hours ago i was basically told that I was nuts.

You're not nuts. I just wasn't awake yet to help you confirm It's easy to get fooled by shear blow off though.
SE Florida will still feel the effects though.

[KWT]

Clipper96, its tough to say we may just be the MLC wrapping with the LLC displaced to the SW, remember when this was still an invest the MLC was wrapping even then as well.

Ground_Zero_92, it certainly looks like a NW track but want to see what it does in the next few hours as it slowly gets closer to the radar site.

Seems to me depsite the system getting neatly sheared the track of the LLC is likely around NNW.

[ericinmia]

We really need to wait for visible to be able to identify how 'coupled' the system either is or isn't. If it re-stacks and slows over the straits... I wouldn't be suprised to see it get some of its act back together as that shear lessens slightly with the ULL slowly leaving the scene. It appears the energy, and potential is there for a strong TS to low cat1. I personally hope this doesn't turn into an ernesto... that storm really killed me. (it appears we are bound for MUCH more rain this time around)
-Eric

[Cookiely]

Someone should have gotten some sleep before writing this disco:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 180731
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
331 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008


...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM FAY LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...


.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
DISCUSSIONS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR DETAILS. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO FOCUS ON THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY THAT SURROUNDS THE
TRACK OF FAY. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE INTO WED WITH SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS.
THESE INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE INLAND
FLOODING...AND POTENTIAL STORM SURGES.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...LITTLE CHANGE IN EXTENDED FORECAST.
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK OF TS FAY KEEPS STORM OVER NORTHERN FL PENINSULA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SO CAN STILL EXPECT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE N EARLY WED NT. FURTHER S CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH SCT
RAIN CHANCES AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
RESIDUAL FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.

THU-SUN...CONTINUE TO EXPECT WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON IN EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS TO HOLD AROUND NORMAL.

&&

[tailgater]

Any chance that we looking at the MLC again and the LLC is still inland and close to being on course.

[wxman57]

Any chance that we looking at the MLC again and the LLC is still inland and close to being on course.

Follow the convection. It doesn't matter where the LLC is if it's not under the convection. The convection is Fay, not any exposed swirl (if there was one). The center will follow the convection, not the other way around.

[Ground_Zero_92]

eye balling a 320 degree NW motion for last hour per cuban radar, puts it now on the SW edge of convection.

Thats right cpdaman, it does look like it's moving NW. When I said that it was moving NW as it was coming off Cuba about 1 - 1 1/2 hours ago i was basically told that I was nuts.

You're not nuts. I just wasn't awake yet to help you confirm It's easy to get fooled by shear blow off though.
SE Florida will still feel the effects though.

No hard feelings. I was up all night watching this stubborn storm. I can't beleive it kept me up all night. And I have already called my dad in Miami as I agree with you that SE FL will definately feel the effects.

[KWT]

The LLC may well be still heading exactly on track its really tough to say at this present moment with the sheared set-up.

As ericinmia stated we need to wait and see the Vis imagery as to where exactly it is.

[ericinmia]

Any chance that we looking at the MLC again and the LLC is still inland and close to being on course.

Follow the convection. It doesn't matter where the LLC is if it's not under the convection. The convection is Fay, not any exposed swirl (if there was one). The center will follow the convection, not the other way around.

Great way to put it... thanks for the re-inforcement of the idea in my head.

[KWT]

Yep wxman57 I think any LLC is very likely elongated SW-NE and that lends itself to an eastward shift of the forecasted track.

By the way do you think this could do anything in the Atlantic because its looking increasingly possible it may make it out.

[Toyota Thundra]

G'd Morning Crew! Im not quite awake yet so bear with me... I hear this talk of an eye wall, did she reach C1 before Cuban landfall? I only took a 5 hour nap, this is not where I thought she would be, but she is "The Alien of 08" and I guess she will act accordingly.

I turned on the news (Ch 08) and I had to laugh at the uncertainty portrayed by the forcaster. I dont think I have ever heard them say "The cone" So many times in one 2 minute block But anyway, she looks SO LOPSIDED right now, honestly what can we expect in tampa? Windy, squally.... due to the fact that there really is little to her W side ATM?

Josh

[xironman]

Wind field spreading out nicely http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SMKF1, 31kt sustained 35 kt gust

[ericinmia]

With the "center" still being a good distance from key west, plus the fact the radar is having to penetrate so much cloud cover that it is getting very incomplete pictures of the far side of the storm... it is somewhat helpful to view the cuban radar to see a clear side of the half of the storm. Albeit their radar leaves something to be desired.

For those that might not have it:
Cuban Radar http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

[KWT]

This certainly is proving to be one of the more difficult to forecast systems in recent times given the models have been way too far west!

Should be noted the GFS does strengthen this system under the gulf stream waters to the west of Florida.

[jhpigott]

GFS doesn't really have this system moving inland over florida for almost 36 hours . . . if that ULL gets out of the way we could see some decent stregthening

[KWT]

Yeah the latest GFS run really does give food for thought, in that it has it pretty much stalled out under the gulf stream before heading back west towards Florida.

I do think the ULL is showing signs of weakening now but its still right next to Fay.