ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

Well it does look as though that outer eyewall is a full circle now, however I heard last night the same thing

[Aric Dunn]

Well it does look as though that outer eyewall is a full circle now, however I heard last night the same thing

the inner one keeps fighting back..

[norva]

Anyone willing to speculate what we can expect in Polk county? We have SO many manufactured homes/communities in this area. I fear those folks don't get to shelters and we see mass devastation. All news channels locally are calling for residents who have safe homes to shelter in place and leave the shelter space for homeless/manufactured home folks. Let's not even get started on all the old oaks in the area, that's our main reason for bunkering down at my dads place.

I'd say cat 1 at minimum.

[bohaiboy]

A number of cruise ships returned to their home port earlier than scheduled, disembarked their passengers, and are now taking their crews and vessels to safer waters.

The safest place for a ship during a hurricane is at sea. Those ships will just cruise in circles till the storm is over. There were several ships within 270-300 miles of Irma when she battered the St Thomas area.
area.
The bigger question is: where will they return to if the Florida ports are heavily damaged.

Gulf swells animation map
http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-of-Mexico- ... type=swell

And Jose is lurking out there also if they go too far east.

[Steve]

Anyone willing to speculate what we can expect in Polk county? We have SO many manufactured homes/communities in this area. I fear those folks don't get to shelters and we see mass devastation. All news channels locally are calling for residents who have safe homes to shelter in place and leave the shelter space for homeless/manufactured home folks. Let's not even get started on all the old oaks in the area, that's our main reason for bunkering down at my dads place.

Heavy rains and high winds and possible tornadoes. From your local NWS Office which is the only authority:

Detailed forecast for
Polk County



Rest Of Today

Mostly cloudy early in the morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.


Tonight

Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.


Saturday

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts around 30 mph increasing to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.


Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Breezy. Lows in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts around 35 mph increasing to 50 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.


Sunday

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Strong winds. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts to around 65 mph increasing to 35 to 55 mph with gusts to around 85 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.


Sunday Night

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Strong winds. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 80 percent.


Monday

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Windy. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

For those thinking SE Florida is out of the woods.

 https://twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/906169685993021440

[meriland29]

Well it does look as though that outer eyewall is a full circle now, however I heard last night the same thing

the inner one keeps fighting back..

Does her inner look to be fighting with the outer now that it has come full circle? Pretty sure you had posted that radar loop of it lol.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

For those thinking SE Florida is out of the woods.

 https://twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/906169685993021440

Thats a comforting tweet for sfl

[funster]

Yes, looks like new smaller inner eye trying to form. It might succeed. http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[Blown Away]

For those thinking SE Florida is out of the woods.

 https://twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/906169685993021440

Agree, but if this track continues to shift W at some point you can at least report what the reality is.

[Extratropical94]

USAF 37
145400 2112N 07433W 6966 03027 9932 +079 -004 224065 067 066 016 03
145430 2111N 07432W 6966 03033 9946 +071 -004 218077 086 068 017 03
145500 2110N 07431W 6979 03018 9962 +060 -005 204081 087 062 039 03
145530 2109N 07430W 6975 03022 9972 +053 -008 199075 079 062 034 03
145600 2108N 07429W 6962 03044 9981 +050 -012 200081 083 063 031 03
145630 2107N 07428W 6972 03041 9992 +050 -016 201079 080 063 026 03
145700 2106N 07427W 6970 03047 9994 +053 -020 199078 080 /// /// 03
145730 2105N 07426W 6963 03058 9999 +052 -023 200079 080 060 010 00
145800 2104N 07425W 6968 03057 9995 +059 -024 200080 080 061 009 00
145830 2103N 07424W 6968 03061 9995 +062 -024 199079 080 059 009 03
145900 2102N 07422W 6970 03064 0007 +057 -024 198075 078 060 011 00
145930 2102N 07421W 6966 03072 0014 +055 -022 199074 074 059 012 00
150000 2101N 07419W 6967 03077 0017 +056 -021 200073 074 059 011 03
150030 2100N 07417W 6966 03081 0016 +062 -019 199073 074 057 007 00
150100 2100N 07416W 6969 03080 0011 +068 -017 203074 075 057 007 00
150130 2059N 07414W 6971 03084 0022 +065 -014 203075 077 055 004 00
150200 2058N 07413W 6971 03089 0030 +063 -012 200073 074 055 005 00
150230 2058N 07411W 6967 03095 0036 +060 -011 199069 072 055 006 00
150300 2057N 07410W 6969 03100 0029 +070 -011 200069 070 056 005 00
150330 2056N 07408W 6968 03102 0019 +080 -010 201069 070 057 005 00

USAF 38
URNT15 KNHC 081528
AF304 2111A IRMA HDOB 38 20170908
150400 2056N 07406W 6969 03106 0028 +076 -009 203065 067 055 004 00
150430 2055N 07405W 6966 03111 0031 +076 -007 204063 065 054 005 00
150500 2054N 07403W 6969 03111 0026 +082 -005 203060 061 053 004 00
150530 2053N 07401W 6966 03114 0026 +083 -004 205060 060 052 004 00
150600 2053N 07400W 6969 03114 0031 +082 -001 206060 060 049 004 00
150630 2052N 07358W 6969 03117 0045 +073 +001 204063 064 050 003 00
150700 2051N 07356W 6964 03124 0041 +077 +004 203063 063 050 000 00
150730 2051N 07355W 6969 03122 0040 +081 +005 202064 066 050 001 00
150800 2050N 07353W 6968 03120 0036 +083 +008 205063 066 050 002 00
150830 2049N 07351W 6967 03126 0041 +082 +012 202063 065 048 001 00
150900 2048N 07350W 6968 03129 0044 +083 +016 198060 062 050 000 00
150930 2048N 07348W 6963 03139 0050 +080 +020 200059 060 050 000 00
151000 2047N 07347W 6973 03129 0050 +082 +024 198058 059 049 002 00
151030 2046N 07345W 6967 03136 0045 +086 +027 199057 060 049 002 00
151100 2046N 07343W 6938 03169 0084 +053 +029 200063 064 050 028 00
151130 2045N 07342W 6955 03152 0065 +072 +026 197057 063 054 008 00
151200 2044N 07340W 6967 03143 0048 +090 +022 198056 057 052 001 03
151230 2044N 07339W 6968 03143 0049 +091 +021 198057 058 050 000 00
151300 2043N 07337W 6970 03142 0061 +082 +023 200060 066 049 001 00
151330 2042N 07335W 6961 03154 0078 +069 +026 198050 065 048 002 00

USAF 39
URNT15 KNHC 081525
AF304 2111A IRMA HDOB 39 20170908
151400 2041N 07334W 6960 03156 0061 +082 +027 193051 053 046 002 03
151430 2042N 07332W 6964 03152 0052 +092 +028 189052 053 044 000 03
151500 2043N 07330W 6967 03149 0050 +093 +030 186053 054 047 000 00
151530 2045N 07329W 6966 03152 0050 +094 +033 186054 054 047 000 00
151600 2047N 07329W 6970 03147 0051 +095 +036 187054 055 047 000 03
151630 2050N 07328W 6966 03154 0049 +095 +039 187055 055 047 000 00
151700 2052N 07327W 6970 03148 0046 +096 +042 186056 056 048 000 03
151730 2054N 07327W 6965 03156 0047 +097 +044 185055 055 048 000 03
151800 2056N 07327W 6970 03150 0044 +101 +046 184057 059 048 000 03
151830 2058N 07326W 6969 03151 0044 +098 +048 182059 059 /// /// 03
151900 2101N 07326W 6967 03153 0041 +102 +049 181059 059 /// /// 03
151930 2103N 07326W 6970 03148 0037 +104 +050 180059 059 /// /// 03
152000 2105N 07326W 6967 03151 0034 +105 +052 179060 060 /// /// 03
152030 2107N 07326W 6969 03148 0035 +105 +053 177061 061 /// /// 03
152100 2110N 07326W 6967 03150 0037 +102 +054 176061 061 /// /// 03
152130 2112N 07327W 6968 03147 0033 +105 +054 173062 062 044 000 00
152200 2114N 07327W 6967 03148 0032 +105 +055 172064 064 046 000 03
152230 2117N 07328W 6970 03143 0036 +101 +055 173064 064 046 000 00
152300 2119N 07328W 6967 03147 0038 +100 +055 174064 064 047 000 03
152330 2121N 07328W 6967 03145 0041 +095 +054 175064 064 049 000 03

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like it is going to run into Cuba at this rate. Would weaken it quite a bit, correct?

[znel52]

Yes, looks like new smaller inner eye trying to form. It might succeed. http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

That is the original eyewall. It is in the process of decaying but hasn't fully done so. The larger eye will be the dominant one.

[BucMan2]

Should Tampa see hu8rricane winds?

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Yes, looks like new smaller inner eye trying to form. It might succeed. http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

If a smaller inner eye forms could that help it possibly strengthen it ovee water before florida landfall? Could that also at the last minute even change the direction of where it goes?

[Blown Away]

Should Tampa see hu8rricane winds?

Sure does look like it to me... Will likely be Cat 1/2, just a guess...

[mrbagyo]

Her current ir signature - kinda reminds me of Ty Nida & Haiyan BEFORE they made their run at T8. I'm not saying Irma's gonna make T8 (the height of tropopause will limit her) - it's just that the appearance is quite similar.

Irma also now possess the feature we dread in WPAC - a prominent western band

[Hurricane Andrew]

*****Important! This is not an NHC forecast and is only a personal opinion of the poster*****

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Major Hurricane Irma [11L]
Track, Intensity, and Impact [TI2] Guidance
15z, September 18, 2017
$$

Current Information (11am, NHC, 6hr trend in parenthesis)
Winds: 130kts / 150mph
Pressure: 927mb
Movement: WNW (285) at 14mph

Track
Irma will continue to move on a west-northwesterly heading over the next twenty-four or so hours, and the center may pass within just a couple miles of the Cuban coastline. Beyond twenty-four hours, Irma will begin to feel the influence of an upper-level trough located in the northeastern United States, and model guidance unanimously agrees that at some point, Irma will turn to the north. Model consensus is fairly high, although shifting, that Irma’s center will make landfall in southern Florida, before tracking on a north-northwesterly heading into Georgia. After that, the guidance diverges on the eventual fate of Irma’s remnants.

Uncertainty remains on several extremely important details. How close will Irma come to Cuba? When will Irma turn to the north? How much time will the storm have over the boiling hot waters of the Florida Straight? These are things that, unfortunately, we may not know a real answer to, beyond an estimate, until they happen.

Intensity
11am Friday [Current] - 130kts / 150mph
11am Saturday [+24] - 135kts / 155mph
(Landfall Intensity - 145kts / 165mph)
11am Sunday [+48] - 120kts / 135mph
11am Monday [+72] - 70kts / 80mph
11am Tuesday [+96] - 30kts / 40mph
11am Wednesday [+120] - 25kts / 30mph

If the track of Irma is somewhat uncertain, the intensity is doubly so. The storm maintained category five intensity for a record length of time, but weakened to a still-catastrophic category four early this morning while undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, or EWRC. This EWRC appears to be complete, and the model consensus shows pressures ceasing to rise by later tonight, and dropping during the day Saturday and all the way up until landfall. The next forty-eight hours will bring Irma’s core over an area of extremely high ocean heat content, with sea surface temperatures ranging from 30 to 32 degrees celcius. Shear will be minimal until landfall, and dry air should not have an impact until after the +48 forecast period.

The only factor that I can see keeping a lid on Irma is a major one; land interaction. Should the hurricane actually make landfall in Cuba, it is possible it may weaken further, perhaps to a category three hurricane. It will then have twelve to eighteen hours over the Florida Straight, more than enough time to regain strength should any further EWRCs fail to materialize. It is worth noting that should the models shift even further west, additional time will be allotted to this hurricane to strengthen, if only a few hours, an effect that would likely be offset by increased land interaction.

Even a category three landfall will have devastating effects across southern Florida. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma were category three storms at their time of landfall. Category four strikes include Hugo, Charley, and Ivan. For an example of category five effects, look at Andrew, or even Irma’s own effects in the Lesser Antilles.

Make no mistake, this storm will have an extreme effect, no matter if it landfalls as a three, a four, or a five. Irma’s size has increased drastically over the past two days, and nearly all of the Florida Peninsula can be expected to experience hurricane force gusts at a minimum.

Impact
Hurricanes have many different impacts, all deadly and heavily damaging, including heavy rain, storm surge flooding, high winds, conventional severe weather, and overall infrastructural damage. Below are summaries for three different zones. Note that these zones can change at any time before and during the event, and this should NOT be used as an evacuation guide.

EXTREME IMPACT
Sustained winds of 100-130mph, with higher gusts.
Heavy coastal flooding from storm surge, especially on the western coast. Flooding may be accentuated by heavy waves.
Rainfall totals of ten or more inches, with hourly rates of one to two inches or higher possible during the peak of the storm.
Flash flooding and street flooding is possible to likely, especially in places with poor drainage, as well as low-lying areas and known flood zones.
Widespread, extended power outages are all but inevitable.
Many areas will be impassable for days or even weeks, especially closer to the coast. Some areas may become uninhabitable for an extended period of times.

SEVERE IMPACT
Sustained winds of 70-100mph, with higher gusts, especially in the southern and eastern portions of the zone.
Significant coastal surge flooding, especially on the western coast. Flooding may be accentuated by heavy waves.
Rainfall totals of six or more inches, with hourly rates of one to two inches or higher possible during the peak of the storm.
Flash flooding and street flooding is possible, especially in places with poor drainage, as well as low-lying areas and known flood zones.
Widespread power outages are likely, and power may remain out for an extended period of time.
Many areas will be impassable for days due to debris, standing water, etc.

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
Sustained winds of 40-70mph, with higher gusts possible, especially of Irma retains her strength further inland than expected.
Moderate coastal surge flooding is possible in coastal areas, along with heavy wave action.
Rainfall totals of six or more inches, with hourly rates of one to two inches or higher possible during the peak of the storm.
Flash flooding and street flooding is possible, especially in places with poor drainage, as well as low-lying areas and known flood zones.
Scattered to widespread power outages are possible, and power may remain out for several days.


Notes
Emergency response will be hindered, if not rendered impossible, both during and after the event throughout much of eastern and southern Florida. If you haven’t evacuated and want to do so, the time is NOW! Every hour, this storm moves closer to landfall.
Focusing on an exact track is pointless; the swath of hurricane force winds is well over a hundred miles wide, and the swath of tropical storm force winds is triple that. No matter where Irma makes landfall, most of the state will see significant to major effects.
Should Irma make landfall as a category five, the wind and infrastructural impacts in the “EXTREME” zone may be higher than stated above. At this point, residents of southern and southeastern Florida should expect a crippling strike.
This storm is an imminent threat to life. Get out, or get safe.

Can't figure out how to upload an image...imageshack is no longer free.

[Centralflamama]

Anyone willing to speculate what we can expect in Polk county? We have SO many manufactured homes/communities in this area. I fear those folks don't get to shelters and we see mass devastation. All news channels locally are calling for residents who have safe homes to shelter in place and leave the shelter space for homeless/manufactured home folks. Let's not even get started on all the old oaks in the area, that's our main reason for bunkering down at my dads place.

Heavy rains and high winds and possible tornadoes. From your local NWS Office which is the only authority:

Detailed forecast for
Polk County



Rest Of Today

Mostly cloudy early in the morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.


Tonight

Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.


Saturday

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts around 30 mph increasing to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.


Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Breezy. Lows in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts around 35 mph increasing to 50 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.


Sunday

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Strong winds. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts to around 65 mph increasing to 35 to 55 mph with gusts to around 85 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.


Sunday Night

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Strong winds. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 80 percent.


Monday

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Windy. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thank you, again!

[jasons2k]

The last two NHC track adjustments could be a significant saving grace for SE FL. Still too early to make that call though. Today and tonight will be very important.

Also, one item to consider when evaluating engineering thresholds is the impact of wind-borne debris. Once you get up into the Cat 4 and esp. Cat 5 range, debris becomes a big problem and the risk of structural failures greatly increases. Let's hope that Miami-Dade can avoid the eyewall.