ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CronkPSU]

I can not believe the wxmen on Channel 6 here in Orlando,

are they the ones using VIPIR and insisting that it goes NNE and pretty much nails Miami but misses the rest of the state, woke up to one of the stations saying that but was too foggy headed to remember which one

[physicx07]

What did they say NDG?

I can not believe the wxmen on Channel 6 here in Orlando,

[NDG]

Wow, not was I as expecting to see this AM.
Shes seems to have taken a hard right and is feeling that trough alot more
than we all thought she would.
Looks like she has missed the cone entirely, and may miss the whole peninsula, or is that
just the convection thats blowing off and the center is still on track??

You sound like the wx staff from channel 6, no no no don't look at the cloud mass, look at the actual LLC and where is moving, it is still moving NNW.

[O Town]

I can not believe the wxmen on Channel 6 here in Orlando,

Yeah the media is non the wiser this morning.
The hype is driving me nutty......

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on surface obs and satellite this system is located near 22.9/81 right now.

Also it appears to becoming better organized with a centeral area of convection. In fact if convection keeps wraping over the LLC I expect some strengthing. It should be moving over water within the hour.

[KWT]

Thats mainly the convection getting sheared off but the center is probably right of the forecast track however and just like last night the center may try and keep with the convection and wobble back eastwards to try and stick with the convection.

[O Town]

Wow, not was I as expecting to see this AM.
Shes seems to have taken a hard right and is feeling that trough alot more
than we all thought she would.
Looks like she has missed the cone entirely, and may miss the whole peninsula, or is that
just the convection thats blowing off and the center is still on track??

You sound like the wx staff from channel 6, no no no don't look at the cloud mass, look at the actual LLC and where is moving, it is still moving NNW.

Hey don't compare me to those folks....lol.
I don't like channel 6 anyways.

Hard to see anything from IR, waiting for first good visibles.

[Emmett_Brown]

Over the next 24 hours, the GFS insists on moving the ULL over W Cuba west and weakening it. Looking at the WV loop however, the ULL is hanging tough.

As for the center following the convection, i dont buy it. The convection is being sheared off to the NE too rapidly. Yesterday, we say Fay's LLC race off to the WNW in the low level flow as she became decoupled. Something similar may happen this morning, with the LLC going NW, and the convection blowing off to the NE.

Long and short is that Fay is a sheared TS, and will need to reorganize again today, much like yesterday.

I think the models will move considerably right, however, since Fay did exit Cuba about 80+ miles to the right of the track.

[NDG]

I can not believe the wxmen on Channel 6 here in Orlando,

are they the ones using VIPIR and insisting that it goes NNE and pretty much nails Miami but misses the rest of the state, woke up to one of the stations saying that but was too foggy headed to remember which one

Yes, they are comparing it to Ernesto, both in track and strength, downplaying it, they went ahead and made their own track well east of the official track, well offshore.
I want everyone here in Orlando to remember that.

[xironman]

We may want to change the title of the thread to "Emerging From Cuba" or something.

[KWT]

What I do have to say NDG is it is making the turn faster than expected and whilst it will still hit Florida as it still seems to be moving NNW I do think its going to make a NNE turn.

I fully expect the NHC to mention the possiblity of this making it back into the Atlantic in light recent GFS runs.

[physicx07]

Even thought the waters Fay is entering have bred some huge hurricanes, I don't feel Fay will be one of them. It will be some random luck if it can actually organize.

[KWT]

I think Emmett that may already be showing early signs of occuring, I don't think the ULL is moving any further east for now anyway.

[fci]

I don't know if it is uncertainty but they can't deviate from the nhc forecast and say:" well it looks like this storm is actually going to follow the convection and take an easterly turn so we are out of the woods for the most part maybe some rain." Not with a hurricane watch up. They are hoping we can see where this is going. But this is what gets me. Warnings didn't get out to people that got hit by charley and some mets knew by looking at the direction of the rainbands that it would do what it did but that wasn't the nhc forecast so the wrong people got ready for the storm.

I don't think that the BOLD part is true.
The area that got hit was in the cone and in the Warning area!

[MusicCityMan]

Channel 9 made their own track too.. Channel 2 still insists on NHC's..

[OuterBanker]

If Fay ever clears land we may see what she is capable of. You have to remember that she has had to fight with some form of land mass for several says. Hasn't really seen open water yet. A little fear full of what might happen IF it does get into gulf stream.

[physicx07]

I don't live there. Can you describe channel 9's track MusicCityMan?

Channel 9 made their own track too.. Channel 2 still insists on NHC's..

[StJoe]

All of us in South Florida will be very happy if Fay dumps 10" of rain into Lake O. Looks like a big rainmaker with some nice gusts...we'll see what happens when it gets into the straits.

J~

[cycloneye]

The Latest:

[fci]

All of us in South Florida will be very happy if Fay dumps 10" of rain into Lake O. Looks like a big rainmaker with some nice gusts...we'll see what happens when it gets into the straits.

J~

You are exactly correct.

IF we can get about a foot or rain on Lake O and just some gusty winds with her, then Fay will be a very welcome visitor. Lawns green and maybe a drought buster