Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

80 degrees here, still no power 4 hours later due to a transformer popping, opened all windows and its still muggy and hot, its times like this that make me wish i was living in Siberia

[Lastcall88]

80 degrees here, still no power 4 hours later due to a transformer popping, opened all windows and its still muggy and hot, its times like this that make me wish i was living in Siberia

Makes ya wonder how my grandparents lived without a/c or ceiling fans their whole lives in the south texas heat. Our a/c unit went out when i was a kid. Mom and little brother went to my aunts house. Dad and I decided if grandma could do it we could. We sweated the whole night.....it was miserable.

In another dear diary, stayed with my uncle in San Diego where it hardly gets above 70 and zero humidity and they don't have a/c either. Guess what I was sweating there as well. So all that to say idk i still hate the cold!

[Cpv17]

80 degrees here, still no power 4 hours later due to a transformer popping, opened all windows and its still muggy and hot, its times like this that make me wish i was living in Siberia

Makes ya wonder how my grandparents lived without a/c or ceiling fans their whole lives in the south texas heat. Our a/c unit went out when i was a kid. Mom and little brother went to my aunts house. Dad and I decided if grandma could do it we could. We sweated the whole night.....it was miserable.

In another dear diary, stayed with my uncle in San Diego where it hardly gets above 70 and zero humidity and they don't have a/c either. Guess what I was sweating there as well. So all that to say idk i still hate the cold!

Seasonal weather is the best weather IMO. Unfortunately, we don’t get that in Texas.

[wxman57]

Disastrous Wednesday morning commute on the CMC, heavy frz rain with temps in Mid 20s across most of DFW. This model has proven to handle these types of setups better than the other globals in the past. Looking at temps across central plains along with the strong cold advection, GFS and Euro seem way overdone on temp profiles, like usual

Hopefully the FW NWS begin to mention this scenario in their upcoming discussions because this setup has the makings of a major forecast bust if they just regurgitate GFS/Euro model output

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/t2m_f/1738929600/1739372400-8JhVxzPxBCo.png

Canadian was the absolute worst with the Jan 21 winter weather across TX/LA. It was way too cold and with way too much snow. Perhaps a bit of snow in OK next Tue/Wed but that looks to be about it. I kind of like the weather today. Up near 80 in Houston while up in the D-FW area it's in the 50s. Good for both of us!

[wxman57]

80 degrees here, still no power 4 hours later due to a transformer popping, opened all windows and its still muggy and hot, its times like this that make me wish i was living in Siberia

Fun fact, transformers don't normally "pop" or explode. What you're hearing is an explosive charge on the fuse connected to the power line. It's a cylindrical object about 16" long and 2" in diameter. If there is a problem with the electricity, it triggers an explosion to blow open the fuse.

As for power, we signed up for a whole house generator in early August. Got word in early November that we were number 1471 on the list. I felt like I was in the movie Beetlejuice in that waiting room with the giant number. Just got word yesterday that we're down to number 750. The number is dropping by about 350 per month. A big squall line that hit us in May combined with a week or more without power due to Beryl in July really helped their sales. I'm thinking sometime in late April, perhaps, we'll get it installed.

[Ntxw]

80 degrees here, still no power 4 hours later due to a transformer popping, opened all windows and its still muggy and hot, its times like this that make me wish i was living in Siberia

Makes ya wonder how my grandparents lived without a/c or ceiling fans their whole lives in the south texas heat. Our a/c unit went out when i was a kid. Mom and little brother went to my aunts house. Dad and I decided if grandma could do it we could. We sweated the whole night.....it was miserable.

In another dear diary, stayed with my uncle in San Diego where it hardly gets above 70 and zero humidity and they don't have a/c either. Guess what I was sweating there as well. So all that to say idk i still hate the cold!

When you are in air controlled environments all the time(homes, businesses, cars, etc) it's so much harder to acclimate to anything other than without some pain. In other words, it's not that we hate very hot or very cold, we just don't like anything not perfect 68-78 degrees, with a comfortable humidity level. Track a day or two of how much time you spend outside of that range, you'd be surprised. We actually spend a relatively low percentage of time beyond that range of temperature. Lucky few with outdoor work nothwithstanding.

[Ralph's Weather]

Disastrous Wednesday morning commute on the CMC, heavy frz rain with temps in Mid 20s across most of DFW. This model has proven to handle these types of setups better than the other globals in the past. Looking at temps across central plains along with the strong cold advection, GFS and Euro seem way overdone on temp profiles, like usual

Hopefully the FW NWS begin to mention this scenario in their upcoming discussions because this setup has the makings of a major forecast bust if they just regurgitate GFS/Euro model output

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/t2m_f/1738929600/1739372400-8JhVxzPxBCo.png

Canadian was the absolute worst with the Jan 21 winter weather across TX/LA. It was way too cold and with way too much snow. Perhaps a bit of snow in OK next Tue/Wed but that looks to be about it. I kind of like the weather today. Up near 80 in Houston while up in the D-FW area it's in the 50s. Good for both of us!

2/21 CMC was closest but still was too warm and I don't think it had as much snow as we got. Temps dropped to well below 0 across E TX and we had a foot of snow. Models including CMC showed single digits at best. A foot of snow causes temps to plummet, see Lafayette where temps fell to 0 in rural areas recently.
At this time range, 120 to 200 hours out, the CMC is the best tool we have for modelling Arctic surface air and precip. Yes if you miss the snow then it will fail as it is takes snow cover into heavy account when showing very cold morning temps.

[Ntxw]

Also interesting note long range ENS are shifting to +PNA/Aleutian low pattern. Winter of 2024-2025 will average out to be +PNA for DJF.

[Stratton23]

Nxtw yuckk, thats a big torch pattern for the US if im not mistaken,

[Ntxw]

Nxtw yuckk, thats a big torch pattern for the US if im not mistaken,

Not necessarily just noting seasonal tendencies. It's been +PNA all winter which is cold in the east (and of course favored the gulf snow in Jan.)

[wxman22]

The National Blend lows for Thursday next week.

[snownado]

The National Blend lows for Thursday next week.



https://i.ibb.co/TxHQ1MVk/IMG-0223.png

Not shabby stall for a blend (especially with the cold-biased ICON probably weighing it down too).

It's still February after all. Cold snaps are still inevitable.

[snownado]

Disastrous Wednesday morning commute on the CMC, heavy frz rain with temps in Mid 20s across most of DFW. This model has proven to handle these types of setups better than the other globals in the past. Looking at temps across central plains along with the strong cold advection, GFS and Euro seem way overdone on temp profiles, like usual

Hopefully the FW NWS begin to mention this scenario in their upcoming discussions because this setup has the makings of a major forecast bust if they just regurgitate GFS/Euro model output

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/t2m_f/1738929600/1739372400-8JhVxzPxBCo.png

Canadian was the absolute worst with the Jan 21 winter weather across TX/LA. It was way too cold and with way too much snow. Perhaps a bit of snow in OK next Tue/Wed but that looks to be about it. I kind of like the weather today. Up near 80 in Houston while up in the D-FW area it's in the 50s. Good for both of us!

Day isn't over yet.

Stratus has mixed out and warm front is surging northward with 2 more hours of good heating to go.

Should get well into the 70s even in DFW today.

[gpsnowman]

Anybody know what happened to the BamWeather twitter page? It no longer exists

[Tammie]

Anybody know what happened to the BamWeather twitter page? It no longer exists

It’s still there…
https://x.com/bam_weather/status/188794 ... J0be-HnN-w

[gpsnowman]

Anybody know what happened to the BamWeather twitter page? It no longer exists

It’s still there…
https://x.com/bam_weather/status/188794 ... J0be-HnN-w

So weird. I just tried again and it is there. Maybe I am just dumb.

[orangeblood]

Disastrous Wednesday morning commute on the CMC, heavy frz rain with temps in Mid 20s across most of DFW. This model has proven to handle these types of setups better than the other globals in the past. Looking at temps across central plains along with the strong cold advection, GFS and Euro seem way overdone on temp profiles, like usual

Hopefully the FW NWS begin to mention this scenario in their upcoming discussions because this setup has the makings of a major forecast bust if they just regurgitate GFS/Euro model output

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/t2m_f/1738929600/1739372400-8JhVxzPxBCo.png

Canadian was the absolute worst with the Jan 21 winter weather across TX/LA. It was way too cold and with way too much snow. Perhaps a bit of snow in OK next Tue/Wed but that looks to be about it. I kind of like the weather today. Up near 80 in Houston while up in the D-FW area it's in the 50s. Good for both of us!

What model output are you basing this forecast off of ? Hopefully it’s not the Euro or GFS, just look at the differences between them and the NAM for Monday night. I think you and I can agree that the NAM handles a shallow arctic airmass much better than the GFS and Euro.

Euro

[Stratton23]

GFS wants to tank the Epo again after the 19th

[wxman22]

The 18Z Euro came in colder up here...Models are showing a pretty potent shortwave on Wednesday. With decent convection it looks like an MCS or storm complex *may* develop. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas get thunder sleet or snow from this.

[orangeblood]

FW NWS is hugging the globals for Sunday high temps, has DFW high temp of 54. HiRes NAM doesn’t get above 42F