CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Portastorm]

When a hurricane undergoes an ERC, does it always (or usually) mean a larger storm in terms of size/scope?

[Ola]

Stsve Lyons just said that the track is going to be shifting South.

My guess is he is saying this because the ULL over Florida is moving west and he expects the storm to follow it, not run into it and possibly get pushed north. We'll see what the NHC has to say in about an hour. There is too much uncertainty.

At 9:30 I watched him. He shwoed the model graphics and shwoed that the GFDL had shifted south from where it was last night. Because of that, there was better consensus to the south and the the track could be shifted south probably.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hey what happened.

The storm has moved more WNW/NW over the last few hours and is now well north of the 5am NHC forecast track. Who knows what this will mean down the road, but for now it is just an interesting observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[dwg71]

Last 2 vortex's showed a 5 minutes north and 22 minutes west. That's south of wnw.

[msbee]

Like the earlier thread for the eastern Carib, this thread is for those in the above threatened areas and our ProMets. Let's keep this clean so those that need the information can find it quickly. Thanks!

I am glad you started this thread. Now that Dean is coming closer to the USA, it is natural that the USA residents on here start turning their focus towards where in the States Dean might hit.
However, before that, Dean has to pass over more islands and possibly Cancun.
So this thread will help keep some of the focus there as it needs to be.
thanks

[Wx_Warrior]

Can someone please post the 2:30am EURO...I must have missed it.

[CrazyC83]

315
URNT15 KNHC 181401
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 21 20070818
135100 1638N 06927W 6966 03145 0047 +086 +086 050058 058 040 031 03
135130 1639N 06928W 6964 03150 0054 +081 +081 051059 060 039 042 03
135200 1640N 06930W 6966 03146 0054 +083 +083 051058 059 037 008 03
135230 1641N 06931W 6955 03159 0071 +067 +067 051058 059 999 999 05
135300 1641N 06933W 6975 03137 0069 +073 +073 049060 062 999 999 03
135330 1638N 06934W 6966 03150 0053 +084 +084 049062 064 036 007 03
135400 1636N 06934W 6965 03148 0042 +090 +090 042055 056 038 006 00
135430 1634N 06934W 6965 03145 0039 +092 +092 040054 055 038 006 00
135500 1632N 06935W 6968 03141 0033 +095 +094 042056 056 040 006 00
135530 1630N 06935W 6968 03141 0033 +096 +078 044055 055 041 006 00
135600 1628N 06935W 6964 03146 0034 +095 +077 046054 055 043 016 03
135630 1626N 06936W 6969 03139 0036 +093 +077 043051 052 042 007 00
135700 1624N 06936W 6963 03145 0039 +087 +087 046052 052 043 005 00
135730 1621N 06936W 6964 03141 0041 +085 +085 051057 061 044 006 00
135800 1619N 06937W 6966 03139 0035 +088 +088 052060 062 045 006 00
135830 1617N 06937W 6966 03135 0053 +074 +074 050059 060 044 006 00
135900 1615N 06937W 6969 03134 0051 +076 +076 049057 060 043 023 03
135930 1613N 06938W 6964 03136 0033 +086 +086 041049 050 039 006 00
140000 1611N 06938W 6967 03131 0029 +089 +089 039051 051 041 005 00
140030 1609N 06939W 6967 03131 0034 +085 +085 036052 053 041 005 00
$$

[hial2]

Last 2 vortex's showed a 5 minutes north and 22 minutes west. That's south of wnw.

How far apart are the vortex messages?

[btangy]

The upper level low should have been sampled well by the radiosonde network over FL at 12Z, and hence the initialization should be somewhat better in the 12Z models. We'll see what effect this will have, but I suspect probably not much.

[TTheriot1975]

Maybe I am wrong...but it looks like it has jogged to the NW..from starting point to ending point of movement...definate jog

[jlauderdal]

The eye definately looks like it is taking a good jog NW!!

just like the stock market they don't move in straight lines

[Cape Verde]

I'm reasonably confused. Why would a more northerly track indicate that it's more likely to make landfall in nothern Mexico?

[robbielyn]

hey what happened.

The storm has moved more WNW/NW over the last few hours and is now well north of the 5am NHC forecast track. Who knows what this will mean down the road, but for now it is just an interesting observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

No I am sorry. I said hey what happened because I was trying to post and it wasn't letting me so once it let me I tried to edit it and put what i really wanted to say on here. I didn't know why it would let me post on quotes and it gave me trouble when I tried to post this one

[hurricanefloyd5]

ok now I see the wnw and if thats true then the eye of Mean Dean will or could move on just the north side of Jamaca and may not even make landfall where they say it is and if THAT'S ture then we could very well 1 have a possible cat.5 in the GOM and two get as strong if not a wee bit stronger then Wilma at her peaks??!!!

[Steve Cosby]

Wooohooo...I have fans....

Yeah, you have several - it doubles up because of who your employer is too bud.

(thanks)

[theworld]

Looks like there is a dip in sea temp as Dean approaches Jamaica, but then increases again just before closing in.

[hurricanefloyd5]

ok now I see the wnw and if thats true then the eye of Mean Dean will or could move on just the north side of Jamaca and may not even make landfall where they say it is and if THAT'S ture then we could very well 1 have a possible cat.5 in the GOM and two get as strong if not a wee bit stronger then Wilma at her peaks??!!!

What ddose everyone thing about this theory?????
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[CrazyC83]

756
URNT15 KNHC 181411
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 22 20070818
140100 1607N 06939W 6966 03131 0034 +085 +085 037056 057 040 005 00
140130 1604N 06939W 6969 03128 0027 +089 +089 035053 055 041 006 00
140200 1602N 06940W 6965 03130 0027 +090 +078 032051 052 043 005 00
140230 1600N 06940W 6965 03129 0027 +090 +078 031053 053 042 005 00
140300 1558N 06940W 6971 03124 0027 +090 +078 030054 054 042 005 00
140330 1556N 06941W 6964 03130 0025 +090 +078 030054 054 042 005 00
140400 1554N 06941W 6969 03124 0024 +090 +077 030054 054 041 005 00
140430 1551N 06942W 6967 03126 0019 +095 +073 029051 052 041 005 00
140500 1549N 06942W 6964 03128 0017 +091 +076 028051 051 040 005 00
140530 1547N 06942W 6967 03125 0018 +090 +077 027050 050 039 005 00
140600 1545N 06943W 6965 03129 0019 +094 +072 026049 050 040 005 00
140630 1543N 06943W 6965 03126 0018 +094 +069 024048 049 039 005 00
140700 1541N 06943W 6969 03121 0023 +090 +072 023047 048 038 005 00
140730 1538N 06944W 6962 03129 0021 +090 +072 021046 047 038 005 00
140800 1536N 06944W 6964 03126 0026 +085 +076 020047 047 037 005 00
140830 1534N 06945W 6968 03121 0026 +085 +079 018047 047 037 005 00
140900 1532N 06945W 6965 03125 0031 +082 +077 018047 047 037 005 00
140930 1530N 06945W 6970 03120 0029 +085 +074 016046 046 036 005 00
141000 1528N 06946W 6964 03129 0028 +085 +076 017046 046 036 005 00
141030 1525N 06946W 6967 03124 0026 +087 +071 017045 046 034 006 00
$$

[Air Force Met]

AFM,

How strong do you think Dean will be if he takes the path you think he is going to? If you already posted it, I'm sorry...I missed it. Thanks.

Probably top end cat 3 at landfall. IT has grown in size so I can see it sucking in some dry air at it approaches land.

ERC's will really govern the strength to a large degree as well...as well as land interaction. Those factors are yet unknown.

[chrisnnavarre]

Maybe I am wrong...but it looks like it has jogged to the NW..from starting point to ending point of movement...definate jog

Going to continue jogging North I'm afraid all day..The ULL low over Florida is influencing the path currently. Plus I think he has out run the blocking ridge to his north. Personally I think this is going to clip the western end of Cuba, and from there who knows. If he catches up with that ULL over Florida I think it will pull him even further north.