ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

Well the strongest winds I can find over Southern FL and the FL Keys were at Molasses Reef off of Marathon. They are reporting a wind of 29mph gusts to 36mph. The rest of the FL Keys are a bit lower than that and the SE FL Coast is only seeing winds of around 10mph at the moment.

[invest man]

yeah, wv image of ull looks to be pushing it more n and the deepest convection to the nne. I seems that the models have not figured in the strenght of the ull or the trough to the n of the cyclone. However some days back something was causing the models to want to push this thing futrther to the east but swung back againt to the west. Perhaps they may have been right earlier and have not responded well to any thing latley

[KWT]

Yeah I agree with that fix wxman57, may be a little east or west of that but its close enough.

Also yep lots and lots of rainfall about to head into Florida, going to be some pretty big rains I'd imagine today.

Finally a lot of the models now shift the track more east and have this breifly getting into the Atlantic again.

[NDG]

It seems that the last couple of days euro which most people were ignoring it, might have the most right after all.

[HURAKAN]

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

[jinftl]

Anyone think SE FL will be put under a Hurricane Watch later in the morning or afternoon?

[NDG]

So I was right about the spot.

[KWT]

Yep NHC totally confirms the placement...also note that its now got winds of 60mph as well which is a little higher then before, thats to be expected given what recon has been finding.

Also NNW is the motion, can't disagree withthat based on radar and sat imagery.

[HURAKAN]

Anyone think SE FL will be put under a Hurricane Watch later in the morning or afternoon?

If the forecast verifies, there is no need for that.

[NDG]

Anyone think SE FL will be put under a Hurricane Watch later in the morning or afternoon?

I doubt it, not unless unexpectedly it start moving NE.

[Toyota Thundra]

Hang in there Fay

[gatorcane]

Now that Fay just got back over water, now is the time to really watch. I'm curious just how strong she gets over the FL Straits.

[tgenius]

I just had a call with a fellow BCP team member from work...The thought we have is if this somehow becomes a hurricane and heads towards Miami, that the NHC is going to get ripped by the local businesses as we have been left as a tropical storm with minimal impact. I'm not saying it is right or wrong, but perception can be a doozy.

[jinftl]

gotcha...thanks.

i would think that if the track forecast moves 50 miles east, a hurricane watch would be as warranted in SE FL as the current one on the west coast.

Anyone think SE FL will be put under a Hurricane Watch later in the morning or afternoon?

If the forecast verifies, there is no need for that.

[Toyota Thundra]

As am I, she looks really good for her tough evening. Time to see her "Alienware."

[Toyota Thundra]

I just had a call with a fellow BCP team member from work...The thought we have is if this somehow becomes a hurricane and heads towards Miami, that the NHC is going to get ripped by the local businesses as we have been left as a tropical storm with minimal impact. I'm not saying it is right or wrong, but perception can be a doozy.

No doubt. I can see that getting blown WAY up. Maybe they couldve been more careful when they forcasted "erratic" movement, by issuing a equal warning for the SE coastline.

[KWT]

What radar is that cycloneye?

Gatorcane, honestly does depend on whether that shear eases off or not, given its at 60mph now its still possibly this makes it to hurricane before landfall, how ever long that is away, its got a good presentation according to radar.

[BPJR051]

*Not an official Met., just my opinion*

Satellite imagery this morning reminds me of Irene in 1999. All forecasts and models stuck with a SW FL coast hit while Irene went north through the everglades and directly north over Okeechobee. I'm not ruling out a similar track. Either way, all that convection on the right sure looks like weather here in Martin County will be worse than I originally thought.

[Chacor]

All I'm seeing on that is "Radar down for maintenance".

[carolina_73]

Center of circulation???