ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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gatorcane
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#7941 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:03 am

When Fay is gone here is the new one in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and Africa: :roll:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#7942 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:04 am

HURAKAN wrote:
jinftl wrote:Anyone think SE FL will be put under a Hurricane Watch later in the morning or afternoon?


If the forecast verifies, there is no need for that.


You also have to judge it by where you live. Like where I live, I'm only 10-11 miles from Ocean Reef, where they have a hurricane watch. Technically, if it were to shift and come more this way, I'd be more likely to get hurricane effects than, say, people in Kendall or downtown Miami. It's this kind of storm where you have to use common sense and your instincts to protect whatever you feel you need to protect. The NHC does the best that they can, and certainly better than the majority of us. You have to go by their products, but use them as guides for your own self. It's always better to be safe than sorry. That being said, at this point I don't see the need for shutters, etc. for most of Dade or Broward.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Emerging Western Cuba

#7943 Postby Toyota Thundra » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:04 am

carolina_73 wrote:Center of circulation???

Image



I would say yes.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Emerging Western Cuba

#7944 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:04 am

What radar is that cycloneye?


That was the Key West radar,but went blank as soon I posted it.
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#7945 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:04 am

Yeah Chacor thats why I was wondering what radar that was?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Emerging Western Cuba

#7946 Postby Toyota Thundra » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:06 am

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caneman

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Emerging Western Cuba

#7947 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:07 am

Anyone think Tampa/St.Pete/CLw will go under Hurricane Warning at 11.. I'm beginning to think so. If you extropolate out current motion for the next 24 hours as NHC expects it would be South or SW of us.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Emerging Western Cuba

#7948 Postby meteorologyman » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:09 am

Where Fay is forcasted to track the sea surface Temperature is between 86 to 89 F
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Tropical Storm FAY aftermath

#7949 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:10 am

Major accident in Haïti reported.


Fifty die as Haiti bus swept away
About 50 people have died in Haiti when their bus was swept away by a river gushing with rain dumped by Tropical Storm Fay, officials say.

Two dozen other people managed to escape as the bus sank in the Glace river in south-west of the country.

The storm is now moving over Cuba, bringing high winds and heavy rain.

Fay is forecast to strengthen to a possible hurricane as it heads towards Florida, where a state of emergency has been called.

Western and central areas of Cuba are being evacuated, as well as the Florida Keys.

The storm passed over Haiti at the weekend, bringing torrential downpours.

About 80 people were on board the bus that plunged into a swollen river on Sunday, officials said.

One report said the vehicle had overturned as it tried to cross a bridge over the Glace river near the town of Bomont in the south-western province of Grand-Anse.

Witnesses said many of those who died were swept away by the raging waters, while others, including about a dozen children, were trapped in the sunken vehicle.

"The river swept them away as if they were driftwood," Bomont Mayor Oreste Andre told the Reuters news agency.

Some two dozen survivors escaped by climbing onto the roof, he said.

Several other people were killed in Haiti and the neighbouring Dominican Republic as the storm caused floods on the island of Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Emerging Western Cuba

#7950 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:10 am

HWRF seems to have been the most consitent model thus far.
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#7951 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:13 am

The sea surface temps are clearly warm enough if the shear does decide to ease up any, I think we are seeing some slight strengthening occuring now.
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#7952 Postby MusicCityMan » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:13 am

Water almost 90 degrees? Oh boy.. Fay may ramp up real quick with that. Keeping close eyes even here.. knowing another slight jog to the east would put Fay's worst conditions possibly right over Orlando Metro.

Of course, we'll be on the right side ne how so it may not matter whether or not we get fay's eye/center.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Emerging Western Cuba

#7953 Postby shaggy » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:15 am

Fay has been able to fire great storms all of her life but they seem well displaced from the center most of the time. Strange system she has been but glad she corrected her earlier movement of being further west in the short term and I'm hoping this allows her an earlier landfall before to much intensity can be gained.
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#7954 Postby capepoint » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:15 am

Man, Fay is one of those women who need LOTS of time to look good in the morning :lol:

Really looks bad this morning, but with warm water, she should be able to slap on some make-up fairly quick.

UNOFFICAL FORCAST BY NOT A REAL WEATHERMAN... in my opinion she remains to the right, and will be going moreso today. Cat 1/STRONG TS max when crosses S Fla back into atlantic S of daytona. I have been preaching this for days now, why back-off now. :D
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Emerging Western Cuba

#7955 Postby meteorologyman » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:15 am

Out of curiosity are there any warm eddies that we need to watch for, dont need any surprises, I cant find any info on it
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#7956 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:16 am

Of course the key is not the SST's its going to be the shear and whether it eases off. It certainly will be a very interesting 24hrs over water for Fay, lets see whether it can do anything, right now deepest convection still well displaced but at least there is conveciton over the center.
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caneman

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Emerging Western Cuba

#7957 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:18 am

Convection over the center is the concerning part. It hasn't been there before. Windsw up to 60 mph. I think the ULL is losing its grip
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#7958 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:21 am

The thing is though caneman whilst there is convection over the center its still not all that impressive really IMO, thats not to say it won't deepn though if it can get away from the ULL at all. Still convection over the center should allow some slow strengthening I reckon.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Emerging Western Cuba

#7959 Postby meteorologyman » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:21 am

It will be a little while before I see anything from Fay, I am in north central Osceola County south of Orlando, I cant believe I just now thought of charging my digital video camcorder. :roll:

Fay is looking better by the hour....or by the minute now not a good thing :eek: , not going to worry now i'm going to keep it kewl 8-)
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#7960 Postby ExBailbonds » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:21 am

Well how things change. I went to bed around 1 am and wake up to a new ball game.

If it comes in thru the everglades it well maintain its strength well inland. I live in the southwest redlands abought 10 miles from the everglades park boundry. I am sure hoping it does not strengthen to much.
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