ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[otowntiger]

You are missing my point.
Of course you need to be prepared and evacuate areas and people, BUT if you go around some of the news sites, most of the journalists are just talking rubbish, unecessarily scaring people with information which is not true.

Any examples?

I do kind of see your point though, Ray Nagin isn't helping matters with his public statements though.

Ray Nagin doesn't help much of anything.

[jlauderdal]

You are missing my point.
Of course you need to be prepared and evacuate areas and people, BUT if you go around some of the news sites, most of the journalists are just talking rubbish, unecessarily scaring people with information which is not true.

Any examples?

I do kind of see your point though, Ray Nagin isn't helping matters with his public statements though.

Ray Nagin doesn't help much of anything.

i saw him, his facts about strength might be off but he is out there telling everyone to evacuate, what else is he supposed to do? They are in an impossible situation, they know whats coming and there isnt a damn thing they can do to stop it, their city could fill up with water.

Ok, now back on topic since I get the last word.

[tolakram]

This system will HAVE to accelerate its forward speed if it's going to make landfall as a Category 4 as forecast. Right now, upper-level winds on the southern side are starting to approach the system and will impede this system maintaining Category 4 intensity for much longer. You can see on water vapor loops the upper-level shield moving northward VERY rapidly toward the system. That will be GREAT news if I wake up tomorrow morning to a Category 3 or LOWER. That is VERY possible with the way the upper-level winds are impinging heavily on the southern side.

This system is reminding me of the structure/side of Dennis as it was making landfall in 2004. IMO, this is the kind of system we will see in Louisiana - Category 2 or minimal 3 with a similar size to Dennis. Still, something dangerous, but not catastrophic/widespread as some make it seem to be.

In any case, PREPARE for the WORST, but I'm seeing some good things tonight. God Bless all in its path...

I guess the perfect circular CDO and cold cloudtops show its going to weaken significantly overnight.

I can sense your sarcasm.

When a VERY powerful hurricane loses its eye like this system did in such a short amount of time and the southern edge is being impeded by southerly shear which is throwing dry air into it, you WILL see a VERY sharp pressure rise. We saw a very similar situation in 2002 with Hurricane Lili.

I will not be at all surprised if the pressure in this system is now in the 960s and going higher...

This was the page I started out this morning so i figured I'd quote it. Great observation! I think that small mountain range in Cuba did disrupt the storm as observed and the increased shear was a one two punch.

[6SpeedTA95]

Morning all, that windshear did in fact work a number on the storm, great news for gulf coast residents now lets just hope the shear stays around long enough to keep it weaker at landfall.

[Javlin]

Still looked like he is tracking a little to the E of the FC pts.not much maybe 12-18 miles.I will be keeping a close eye on those pts.A Cat3 I can live with and is an inconveince if it should make landfall still a little further E,some reason that MS/LA line??

[randge]

Dead calm north of Houston.

Radar returns clocking around the upper Gulf Coast.

North breeze 7 at Galveston. Winds NE 6 at Cameron, E 7 over Houma.

Gustav is knocking at the door.

[Jason_B]

Still looked like he is tracking a little to the E of the FC pts.not much maybe 12-18 miles.I will be keeping a close eye on those pts.A Cat3 I can live with and is an inconveince if it should make landfall still a little further E,some reason that MS/LA line??

Looks pretty much in line with the NHC's forecast, making a b line to central LA. It would have to turn NNW/N to hit MS.

OT: Cat 3 in the Gulf heading towards Louisiana and this forum is pretty quiet this morning, weird.

[6SpeedTA95]

Still looked like he is tracking a little to the E of the FC pts.not much maybe 12-18 miles.I will be keeping a close eye on those pts.A Cat3 I can live with and is an inconveince if it should make landfall still a little further E,some reason that MS/LA line??

Looks pretty much in line with the NHC's forecast, making a b line to central LA. It would have to turn NNW/N to hit MS.

OT: Cat 3 in the Gulf heading towards Louisiana and this forum is pretty quiet this morning, weird.

Maybe its just because its early? I'm really glad its only a cat3 and hopefully it will continue to weaken. There's too much at stake for the nation and the people of the gulf coast for this thing to roar ashore as a strong cat3 or worse.

[Javlin]

And it looks like it is going to miss pt.31/18 even more to the right if it stays on the same path?I do not see Central LA more like NOLA I do not buy the W bend,be nice! just do not see it.The forward speed has increased up to 16mph some strong steering currents in play.Well time to board up my work in Long Beach.

[canetracker]

I am sure encouraged this morning by how Gustav is looking. Dry air infiltration seems to have disrupted it somewhat. IMO, it has another 5 hours or so to get its act together before getting to the cooler waters close to our coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[cardiacnp]

anyone have any info on the slosh models for terrebonne/ lafourche parish.


thnaks

[6SpeedTA95]

I am sure encouraged this morning by how Gustav is looking. Dry air infiltration seems to have disrupted it somewhat. IMO, it has another 5 hours or so to get its act together before getting to the cooler waters close to our coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Although at 16mph the SST's are plenty high to support a cat4+ storm, but that does of course assume a near perfect environment and right now that shear is quit strong.

[AlabamaDave]

And it looks like it is going to miss pt.31/18 even more to the right if it stays on the same path?I do not see Central LA more like NOLA I do not buy the W bend,be nice! just do not see it.The forward speed has increased up to 16mph some strong steering currents in play.Well time to board up my work in Long Beach.

The NHC forecast isn't calling for a landfall in South Central Louisiana. It calls for a landfall in SE Louisiana to the SSE of Houma and SSW of New Orleans:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=29.23848&lon=-90.53833&zoom=8&type=map&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0

[Ixolib]

Well time to board up my work in Long Beach.

Still doing the Auto Zone thing???

[funster]

It's weird we are now talking about a Cat 3 as the optimal situation with Gustav. It looks like some deeper convection is trying to get going on the right side: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Hopefully, Gustav will run out of time and hot water soon.

[Javlin]

Well time to board up my work in Long Beach.

Still doing the Auto Zone thing???

Yea got the store in Lonch Beach and nice nice raise.

[Ixolib]

Well time to board up my work in Long Beach.

Still doing the Auto Zone thing???

Yea got the store in Lonch Beach and nice nice raise.

Good for you!!

[Javlin]

And it looks like it is going to miss pt.31/18 even more to the right if it stays on the same path?I do not see Central LA more like NOLA I do not buy the W bend,be nice! just do not see it.The forward speed has increased up to 16mph some strong steering currents in play.Well time to board up my work in Long Beach.

The NHC forecast isn't calling for a landfall in South Central Louisiana. It calls for a landfall in SE Louisiana to the SSE of Houma and SSW of New Orleans:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=29.23848&lon=-90.53833&zoom=8&type=map&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0

Better look above me it was I think one of those TX boys my pt was just that it looks to the right of the next pt coming up.For those that go CAT and ARRRGH I have been through Camille till now in the same house!

[tolakram]

1200Z

[Harry Cane]

Sorry but I just hear mayor Nagin of New Orleans.
"People have to be scared. This is the storm of the century..."
Is he on crack or what?
Maybe he should read the information on this site and get in touch with Miami before making statements to boost his future (?) political career....
Now back to tracking Gustavo.