Potential in the GOM?

[NDG]

Showers in the gulf are due to the upper trough coming down into the gulf, nothing going on tropical at the surface, pressures are very high.

[dixiebreeze]

Gulf doesn't seem so quiet this morning, is it just thunderstorms or should we start watching

Worth repeating.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Mainly an upper trough I think. A small burst near the Yucatan
appears to be just some thunderstorms. Also another burst
right on top of me (Tampa Bay) is an area of thunderstorms
being fueled by the upper trough. There is a lot of lightning here.
Also further north along the trough are thunderstorms around
the Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend. I do not know
if this means anything in terms of tropical weather, but the rain
sure feels juicy and tropical. The lightning is crazy right now in the
blob moving over Tampa Bay (this blob is part of that same trough as the
Yucatan Blob).

[MiamiensisWx]

It's essentially nothing tropical or subtropical. There's a shortwave trough over the Florida peninsula that extends southwest into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper low to the west over mainland Mexico is enhancing upper divergence, while low level convergence is sufficient for sustained convection. Overall, this is a typical non-tropical situation under strong upper level shear, and cyclogenesis will definitely not occur.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks MiamiensisWx for that explanation. There is a ton of Lightning-genesis,
40 strikes of lightning within 5 miles of my house in the last 10 minutes.

[Stratosphere747]

Gulf doesn't seem so quiet this morning, is it just thunderstorms or should we start watching

Worth repeating.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Shear isn't prohibitive in the Gulf, but there seems to be an absence of a surface feature to take advantage.




Now, the disturbed area out near 35ºW has favorable shear, but that is a different thread.

[srainhoutx]

Give the GOM a little time. Stalled boundries have a history of surprises through the years. I suspect we'll see more upper level vorts form along trough the next few days in my humple opinion.

[Stratosphere747]

Give the GOM a little time. Stalled boundries have a history of surprises through the years. I suspect we'll see more upper level vorts form along trough the next few days in my humple opinion.

There is far less homegrown activity that develops in the GOM than most surmise. Of course it happens but not at the level that many think...

[PTrackerLA]

Give the GOM a little time. Stalled boundries have a history of surprises through the years. I suspect we'll see more upper level vorts form along trough the next few days in my humple opinion.

There is far less homegrown activity that develops in the GOM than most surmise. Of course it happens but not at the level that many think...

That's very true, I believe I read on here one time that it happens once every 2 years or so. If my memory serves me correctly, we haven't had a true "home grown" in a few years. Yes we've had storms spin up quickly in the gulf (Humberto) recently but that was due to an existing tropical disturbance/wave. Sooner or later we'll have a big thunderstorm complex move into the gulf and develop so we should always keep an eye out.

[lrak]

Pressures are high but look at the apparent twist around 19N 95W.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[tailgater]

Consistency will be key because as you say pressures are not dropping yet and cloud tops seem to be warming already. A wave in the area giving a little twist. Something to check on later.
Buoy near the area.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
Shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
low level convergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[A1A]

Here's some BOC action - rather fast flare up!

[cycloneye]

[dixiebreeze]

Maybe a "home grown" after all, Luis? Interesting to watch anyway.

[tailgater]

If this turns out to be correct we don't have anything to worry about.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... hear20.png

[KWT]

Well whilst it did look ok a couple of hours ago a huge outflow bondary has been spat out from the northern side of the complex, which doesn't bode well for any tropical like development.

[NDG]

That twist that you guys see on the sat loop in the BOC is only in the mid levels, nothing is getting organized at the surface, surface winds are all from an easterly direction, surface high pressure is in control.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm not sure which area you guys are focusing on, but the word persistence is key. Those storms flared up pretty quickly and at the end of the day, I'm thinking they will die out. 30kts of shear in the BOC and S. GOM.. not that 30kts is a whole heck of a lot. It would seem to me that it's enough for a newly formed thunderstorm complex to not be able to overcome. Anyway I don't see much coming out of it.



Of course since I chimed in on it, I'm gonna have to eat some crow.

[KWT]

The convection does seem to be getting sheared from the west with the outflow from the complex heading towards the Yucatan whilst the whole complex moves to the north from the looks of things with storms still firing on the northern side.