Tropical Wave with low near African Coast

[drezee]

Based on the high-res visble loops, I would guess the area of low pressure is near 8.5N and 14.5W

Aric,you almost nailed the position of the low.Here is the first ssd plot:

28/1800 UTC 9.2N 15.4W TOO WEAK INV -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

yeah its pretty evident on visible sat loop i posted with it.. not so hard to extrap the center from the curved bands that are rotating around it.

Seems to be moving WNW. I placed it this morning WSW of the 1800z position.

[SapphireSea]

All the convection associated with this is all part of the ITCZ, this is going to have the same challenges as 94L (Became Dolly 1000+ miles W from where it was classified an invest initially), it will have to disconnect somewhat from the ITCZ and survive the dry air that is present over most of the Atlantic. There is a small chance it can develop in the ITCZ, but we have seen better waves fail, so I believe that's why we wouldn't be surprised if it dies out.

Needless to say, that the future it is uncertain, and this can develop somewhere down the line just like Dolly, and even then if it does decide to get its act together, it wont be a true Cape Verde storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection is falling apart. Maybe a "weak" low but we more or less have to see if a LLC can get started. Maybe no development in the next day or so. But maybe if "shear" is low once into the centeral Atlantic is maybe worth watching.

[RL3AO]

Dolly was 94L not 95L.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is falling apart. Maybe a "weak" low but we more or less have to see if a LLC can get started. Maybe no development in the next day or so. But maybe if "shear" is low once into the centeral Atlantic is maybe worth watching.

honestly convection always looks very similar in systems at this stage. and there is clearly a well defined circulation ( and not to broad) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

and looking at the longer loop the circulation is taking shape quite nicely. and considering it just emerged off the coast earlier today im not surprised convection has flared down as they normally do .. This system has better chance than the one that came off last week .. this one is at a much lower latitude and is in a good moisture envelope, there is some light to moderate sal well to the north which in at least the short term is not going to affect it to much. so all in all at this moment i see no reason why it could not become more organized ! as for tomorrow and the next day well that remains to be seen as it all depends on the evolution of the Circualtion meaning how far north does it move if it stays south it will be better off.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now that I have looked at the satellite above, it appears that we have a well defined cirulation off the coast of Africa near 9 north/15 west. Looking very good. I'm sorry I was just looking at still large scale images, now that I look in at a loop it does look interesting.

[cycloneye]

Neat pic where you can see upclose where the low is,near that black ball off the coast below 10n.



http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg

[Sanibel]

I think the basin turns a corner over the next 10 days or so.


(More active)

[fasterdisaster]

I think the basin turns a corner over the next 10 days or so.

Do you mean more active or less active?

[cycloneye]

043
ABNT20 KNHC 282332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

[RL3AO]

cycloneye, did you forget about the rules?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1753072#p1753072

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, did you forget about the rules?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1753072#p1753072

Nobody is perfect,but its done.

[SapphireSea]

Dolly was 94L not 95L.

Sorry you are right. A bit confused, I believe 95L was some GoM activity.

Point still stands.

[cycloneye]

29/0000 UTC 9.4N 15.8W TOO WEAK INV -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion by TPC:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH A
1009 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N14W. THIS LOW SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TO THE WNW AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD PATTERN
EXHIBITING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW
PRES. THIS WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 00Z SFC MAP.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Aric Dunn]

8 PM discussion by TPC:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH A
1009 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N14W. THIS LOW SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TO THE WNW AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD PATTERN
EXHIBITING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW
PRES. THIS WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 00Z SFC MAP.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

yeah.... its clearly on its way, just have to wait and see in the trend continues. as of right now its looking pretty decent.

although 10n seems a little too far ... but they did say "near"

[Derek Ortt]

went with development not expected on PNJ and nwhhc tonight

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... fe.pnj.com

http://www.nwhhc.com/gpage1.html

[Aric Dunn]

went with development not expected on PNJ and nwhhc tonight

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... fe.pnj.com

http://www.nwhhc.com/gpage1.html

ok

[RattleMan]

Dolly was 94L not 95L.

Sorry you are right. A bit confused, I believe 95L was some GoM activity.

Point still stands.

95L was in front of 94L (Dolly) in the western Caribbean, crossed over into the EPAC and became Hurricane Genevieve.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dolly was 94L not 95L.

Sorry you are right. A bit confused, I believe 95L was some GoM activity.

Point still stands.

95L was in front of 94L (Dolly) in the western Caribbean, crossed over into the EPAC and became Hurricane Genevieve.

94L lasted so long, they should retire the number, and in future years skip from 93L to 95L. Not Dolly, bring that name back in 2014.

IMHO.