ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[cycloneye]

Latest comments from Dr Jeff Masters:


Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:30 PM EDT on September 19, 2008

Heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing over the Lesser Antilles Islands today in association with tropical disturbance 93L. Visible satellite loops indicate that a closed circulation may be developing at middle levels of the atmosphere, near 14N 64W. Additional slow development appears likely, and I expect 93L's mid-level circulation will work its way down to the surface by Sunday. Slowing down this process will be the presence 15-20 knots of wind shear, which is marginal for development. Wind shear is forecast by the GFS model to remain 15-20 knots for the next five days, but other models are forecasting wind shear in the moderate range, 10-15 knots. The NHC is now giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday, and I put these odds a bit higher, in the 30%-60% range. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L, and it is possible that given its current rather fragile state, high wind shear will prevent development. I give a 60% chance that 93L will eventually develop into a tropical depression.

Most of the heavy rains from 93L are well to the east of the center, and expect heavy rains of 3-6" to affect Puerto Rico Saturday through Sunday. By Sunday, heavy rain will spread to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Steering patterns will very likely prevent 93L from recurving out to sea, and I expect the storm will affect Jamaica, Cuba, and possibly the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Monday night. It is uncertain at this time whether 93L will retain its current west-northwest motion and cross into the Bahamas (as forecast by the HWRF model), or be forced more to the west on Sunday, and remain in the Caribbean (as forecast by the Canadian model).

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

[Blown Away]

Sheared convection building along the NE side of the broad circulation, near 14N/64W. This area has been pretty much void of convection most of the day.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[jaxfladude]

Oh no, I was thinking/-removed- that the season was shutting down for good after the Ike....darn it....

[southerngale]

Looks quite unimpressive to me. Just a weak surface eddy void of convection. Something to keep an eye on, but it is nowhere near developing into anything significant. Hopefully, it'll dissipate. Being still without power after Ike, I, too, don't find it "good news" if it would track westward over warm water.

But I think the trough should protect Texas and steer it towards Florida, because
that is a really deep trough...what do you think on the path?

That's what I'm thinking. Any development would most likely affect Haiti and the DR then either turn out to sea or possibly threaten the East U.S. Coast.

That's what everyone, including the models, first thought about Ike. I hope that's the case this time, but I don't trust any potential troughs until they actually turn these systems. I'm ready to go home... to electricity and non-salt water in the faucets, and hopefully sewer services not relying on a generator. To anyone who THINKS they want a hurricane... no, you don't. We've had two horrible hurricanes devastate this area in less than 3 years (plus another hurricane and TS) - trust me, there's nothing good that comes from it. They're a pain in the butt!!

[HurricaneFreak]

No really they are a pain in the BUT.HOW DO U THINK I FEEL DOWN IN BOCA RATON NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE!We get hit more than u but now im gettin used to hurricanes so i can kinda like em to come its my hobby..dude dont think your the only one who is pissed though with hurricanes.we still have another whole 2 months.and wilma came in the end of october which was really bad for fl.

[Blown Away]

93L is still disorganized, this is the best the broad circulation has looked so far. 93L is moving just N of due W, I don't see this system taking the track the HWRF is showing, it would have to make a hard right turn at this point. 93L may move to code "Red" by the 8pm update.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Gustywind]

LOL nice post southerngale,you make sense , i remembered pas month a new boarder Mecklenburg speaking about that, " i want a hurricane" how can play with that, Mother Nature is terrible and always versatile, one thing to do watch !

[CrazyC83]

That's what everyone, including the models, first thought about Ike. I hope that's the case this time, but I don't trust any potential troughs until they actually turn these systems. I'm ready to go home... to electricity and non-salt water in the faucets, and hopefully sewer services not relying on a generator. To anyone who THINKS they want a hurricane... no, you don't. We've had two horrible hurricanes devastate this area in less than 3 years (plus another hurricane and TS) - trust me, there's nothing good that comes from it. They're a pain in the butt!!

Not to mention this would be the fifth hit for Hispaniola in less than 6 weeks, something they certainly cannot handle.

[Gustywind]

That's what everyone, including the models, first thought about Ike. I hope that's the case this time, but I don't trust any potential troughs until they actually turn these systems. I'm ready to go home... to electricity and non-salt water in the faucets, and hopefully sewer services not relying on a generator. To anyone who THINKS they want a hurricane... no, you don't. We've had two horrible hurricanes devastate this area in less than 3 years (plus another hurricane and TS) - trust me, there's nothing good that comes from it. They're a pain in the butt!!

Not to mention this would be the fifth hit for Hispaniola in less than 6 weeks, something they certainly cannot handle.

What a nigtmare hope no more landfall on this area!

[Sanibel]

Was trying to tell people yesterday that convection rarely lies in this area at this time of year.

[dixiebreeze]

Anyone know why there is no 5 p.m. twc update?

[Gustywind]

Bad news of us in Guadeloupe after a short break hoping for a big poof of 93L , our Pro met of Meteo-France has back in the ORANGE alert of us in their latest weather forecast! waouw....
The weather forecast is clear for METEO-FRANCE....i translate it for you
Synopsis
Numerous heavy showers are back in this end of afternoon.
This pertubed area does not want to give up with us this Friday.

Forecast
A rainy weather is on tape for the next couple of hours and during the night, with sometimes a strong intensity, the thunder could be heared, the most noticeable squalls with a possibility of strong gustywinds near 33kts to 38kts.
We could predict a relative calm tommorow morning, but this must be confirmed!

Datas/Numbers
On the south tip of the island (for example near HUC location ) amounts since this morning have been near 25 to 45 millimeters, and we could tkink that the worst should come during the next couple of hours. Elsewhere, no huge amounts have been reported between this morning and this half afternoon, near 5 to 15millimeters, but numerous rain showers are coming.... on sometimes saturated areas, and in some locations floodings can be quickly noticied.

Commentaries
Consequences
Orange alert is maintained at least probably tommorow morning.
The perturbed area should stay at least Saturday morning for the peak of activity, after we will see.
Next weather forecast: this Friday near 9 PM.

Summary: Risk moderate Impact ( effects that we're waiting for): moderate.

Nice regards from Guadeloupe Gustywind
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Latest 6PM convection is repopping nicely and expanding to SE of the islands ( huge bulk S/E of Barbados)unstelled conditions should come during the next hours of the East Carib....

[Brent]

Anyone know why there is no 5 p.m. twc update?

Because TWC sucks!

[jlauderdal]

Anyone know why there is no 5 p.m. twc update?

Because TWC sucks!

i think she meant two

[msbee]

gusty
I hope you guys don't get too much from this system. take care down there.
I think..I hope..that this thing is far enough south of us that we will just get some showers but nothing too heavy. Our met office says we have a chance of a few locally heavy showers.
it's windy here and we have had a few moderate showers today.
PR? watch out, Luis.
and DR and Haiti..OH God, I hope not..those poor people have enough to deal with already.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe conditions will improve for development, but despite lots of convection, this looks like a mess to my amateur eyes.

[cycloneye]

Here is the mess Ed was talking about.The big question is if something develops from the mess.What is sure will be plenty of rain for the islands.

[jlauderdal]

Maybe conditions will improve for development, but despite lots of convection, this looks like a mess to my amateur eyes.

and thus its still an invest

[wxman57]

Maybe conditions will improve for development, but despite lots of convection, this looks like a mess to my amateur eyes.

and thus its still an invest

Looks like a mess to my eyes, too. Little or no convection within several hundred miles of a weak low-level spin. Didn't understand Jeff Masters' statement that he thought it had a 30-60% chance of developing into a depression at one part then a 60% chance of becoming a depression farther down. I think 30% is too high.

[Gustywind]

gusty
I hope you guys don't get too much from this system. take care down there.
I think..I hope..that this thing is far enough south of us that we will just get some showers but nothing too heavy. Our met office says we have a chance of a few locally heavy showers.
it's windy here and we have had a few moderate showers today.
PR? watch out, Luis.
and DR and Haiti..OH God, I hope not..those poor people have enough to deal with already.

Tkanks a lot, i appreciate . Very moist here and grey with numerous clouds but no rain, winds.
Hope nothing to bad but we should experience maybe consequent amounts of water tonight or tommorow morning givent the latest weather forecast , let's see how the things evolve. I hope that the strong showers will not race near your location Msbee, seems that this little boy is gaining convecction by the hour.Furthemore, have you ever seen the other "little" perturbed area behind this little boy,? Developpement or not of these two systems could bring very unstelled conditions maybe 3 days more to the East Carib if this is confirmed, waouw !