ATL INVEST 94L: Discussion

[hurricanefloyd5]

I disagree they would not call it a STS HURRICANE if it has winds over 65kts It would stil be a STS WITH 65KT

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

i THINK THE CENTER OF THIS STORM IS NOW COMING INTO THE LONG RANGE LOOP!!!!!!!!!!!

[vacanechaser]

Hi Jesse, just thought I'd let you know, NC12 Cedar Island shallow overwash last night and today, tides on south side of Neuse river around Havelock are also 2-3 feet above normal. Soundside water is up about 1-2 feet in Morehead City.
Currently winds in Morehead City are about 25 gusting to 39 freqently, but they are NE so I dont know how much is 94 or the gradient. Overcast, no rain yet. If you decide to come down this way, would recommend the Sea Level, Atlantic, Cedar Island area for best conditions right now. Cedar Island near ferry would be best for you to get wind data but you might get stuck by high water on nc12. I understand that the water was in some yards nearing houses earlier. Keep safe.

thanx for the info ..... i think mark will head out there later today... that may be a plan for tomorrow for me as well...something that we will have to watch and decided on later.. think i am going out to hatteras now.... through tonight and then decided about tomorrow later this afternoon and tonight... thanx again for the info....



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[BetaEffect]

Just to clarify - a Subtropical cyclone will just be called Subtropical (name) - no reference to it being as a hurricane.

Something that has not been said is that with a subtropical cyclone you have to remember that 9 out 10 times the winds are often stronger aloft than at the surface. Hence, Landsea was picking his words properly.

[Category 5]

no such thing as subtropical hurricane....HURRICANE means purely tropical!

I'm pretty sure this is wrong. There hasn't been any STS recorded over 65 mph since when they started naming the STSs which gives the impression hurricanes can't be subtropical but I don't think that's true. A hurricane is a hurricane is a hurricane, and it's harder for STSs to become hurricanes but it is possible though pretty rare. They would call it Subtropical Hurricane Kyle I think.

There is no such thing as a subtropical hurricane. If it's not fully tropical they'll call it a Subtropical Storm.

[Weatherfreak000]

Definitely going with Wxman and others on this one....absolutely no clue why this storm isn't STS Kyle at the next advisory.


No clue why Recon is necessary either when Dvorak, QuikScat and Visible is conclusive... it's also dipping southward which would keep it in warm SST's with shear improving.

Convection however..is a tad shallow...more likely the one two shear dry air punch is to be responsible for that, However convection around the center is the best now it has been since this morning...that much has improved.

As far as going tropical....kinda feeling bad about the dry air...but still with shear decreasing and it is moving south into warmer SST's I get the feeling it's 50/50 this may make the transition.

[mascpa]

All of this debate about whether it will be a subtropical storm or subtropical hurricane, I mean who really cares? It is still a weather event with high winds and lots of rain. To me what you call it is irrelvant except from a theoretical point of view.

[Category 5]

All of this debate about whether it will be a subtropical storm or subtropical hurricane, I mean who really cares? It is still a weather event with high winds and lots of rain. To me what you call it is irrelvant except from a theoretical point of view.

There is no debate, because there is no such thing as a Subtropical Hurricane.

And I agree with you, who cares? The NHC will call it what it is and that's it.

[AJC3]

I see HPC is still analyzing the cyclone a being frontal. The temperature discontinuity to the west and southwest of the low is likely diffuse enough to where analyzing a cool front in that area is likely a stretch. However, based upon the obs I'm looking at on the northeast and east sides of the low, coupled with the satellite presentation, I think one could reasonably argue that the warm frontal feature hasn't completely gone away yet.

Whatever the case may be, the environment surrounding the low is hardly barotropic, and this is especially the case at the mid and upper levels. There remains an upper level cyclone over the surface low, and it's going to take a lot more sustained central convection to reverse the flow aloft to anticyclonic. I'd expect this process to take longer than some folks are figuring, esepcially given that relatively dry, stable air is wrapping into the system from the west and southwest, which is causing the central convection to weaken.

Don't get me wrong...it's over the warm water of the GS and I think as time goes on, the cyclone will acquire increasingly tropical characterisitics. I just don't expect this to happen at a rapid-fire pace.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Definitely going with Wxman and others on this one....absolutely no clue why this storm isn't STS Kyle at the next advisory.


No clue why Recon is necessary either when Dvorak, QuikScat and Visible is conclusive... it's also dipping southward which would keep it in warm SST's with shear improving.

Convection however..is a tad shallow...more likely the one two shear dry air punch is to be responsible for that, However convection around the center is the best now it has been since this morning...that much has improved.

As far as going tropical....kinda feeling bad about the dry air...but still with shear decreasing and it is moving south into warmer SST's I get the feeling it's 50/50 this may make the transition.

I agree a thousand percent, in fact, if it has convection developing over the core of the system, and has formed the winds close to the core; which you would think a tropical like system would have. Then if those winds are 65 knot winds, then it should be a hurricane. On the other hand, if it had a super broad wind field, with most convection away from the core, and which the nhc won't upgrade anymore it seems(to me at least), then it is not. (You could make a case for subtropical"storm/subtropical hurricane). I would make a nice long rant if they didn't upgrade it, but that will only serve to get me in trouble. But yes I do feel like doing so; just to blow off some steam. In this is not a good place to do that.

Case in point they upgraded Andrea last year...Why not this???

[Dean4Storms]

I agree with the sentiment that this should already by named STS Kyle, don't know why they would want to wait on Recon with so many other factors proving it to be a STS.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Although it's over teh GS. it's still a cold-core system. As AJC3 points out the mechanism for TROPICAL cyclones is not there. I don't think it will become warm core from sustained convection before reaching land. Still coastal residents won't feel any difference in STS winds or TS winds at 65kts. The beach will erode just the same.

[Myersgirl]

The Neptune Festival on Virginia Beach boardwalk starts Friday, do you think the winds will still be high? I am scheduled to participate but am now thinking it is not a good idea to be in a tent on the boardwalk with my art this weekend. Not to mention driving there tomorrow up I-95. Anybody from the area? Advice?

It is hard to get anyone to answer you if you are not arguing over if this is a tropical or subtropical storm.

[HURAKAN]

The Neptune Festival on Virginia Beach boardwalk starts Friday, do you think the winds will still be high? I am scheduled to participate but am now thinking it is not a good idea to be in a tent on the boardwalk with my art this weekend. Not to mention driving there tomorrow up I-95. Anybody from the area? Advice?

It is hard to get anyone to answer you if you are not arguing over if this is a tropical or subtropical storm.

NWS: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 6.0437&e=0

Friday: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Northeast wind between 11 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

------------------------------------------------------------------

It will depend on the final track of this system but it doesn't look like at the moment like it will be a good day on Friday in Virginia to be outside.

[hurricanedude]

The Neptune Festival on Virginia Beach boardwalk starts Friday, do you think the winds will still be high? I am scheduled to participate but am now thinking it is not a good idea to be in a tent on the boardwalk with my art this weekend. Not to mention driving there tomorrow up I-95. Anybody from the area? Advice?

It is hard to get anyone to answer you if you are not arguing over if this is a tropical or subtropical storm.

Winds will greatly diminish by friday but friday and saturday look RAINY

[AJC3]

I'll say this...this afternoon's recon flight is one I'd sure like to be on, just to see "up close and personal" and in detail what kind of thermal/wind structure the cyclone has, and how it evolves over the course of the flight. Still, following the HDOBs isn't a bad thing to have to settle for...

[HURAKAN]

286
ABNT20 KNHC 241759
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE LOW IS
PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Myersgirl]

much thanks hurricanedude and hurakan

[weatherwoman]

Is this thing whatever it is moving south or west, nhc says west but it looks south to me, or it it the clouds around it moving south that make it looks like its moving south

[HURAKAN]

097
AGXX40 KNHC 241807
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
HURCN FORCE STORM CENTER LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N75.5W IS THE KEY PLAYER IN THE FCST WITH 1100 UTC HI RES
QSCAT PASS INDICATING N TO NE WINDS OF 30-35 KT OVER THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE ZONE N OF 30N. BUOYS 41010 AND 41012 REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25+ KT ATTM BUT ARE NOT IN THE AREA OF
HIGHEST WINDS NOTED IN THE QSCAT PASS. SAME BUOYS REPORTED SEAS
OF 12-14 FT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE LOW
WWD THROUGH 12Z THU THEN TURN THE SYS NWWD AND INLAND OVER THE
UPPER SC COAST BY 06Z-12Z FRI. THREAT OF 30-40 KT GALES FOR THE
FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA (N OF 30N) EXISTS AS THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WWD ALONG 31N...HOWEVER ONCE THE SYS TURNS MORE NWWD
WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN MORE TO THE NW.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WHICH HAS BECOME LESS SIGNIFICANT WITH
TIME IS THE NOW DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESS EMERGING OFF
HISPANIOLA AND CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS.
THUS FAR THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS HAVE PERFORMED THE BEST AS FAR
AS KEEPING THE SYSTEM WEAK AND ATTACHING MORE SIGNIFICANCE TO
THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST. NOW THE GFS HAS COME INTO
AGREEMENT AS WELL IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WEAK AS WELL. THE LESS
RELIABLE CMC/NOGAPS/NAM STILL DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE SYSTEM NWD ALONG
71W TO 31N BY FRI. WILL MAINTAIN A SEPARATE AREA OF WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM FROM THE AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWD MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM
MAINLY OVER AREAS E OF 71W/E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR

BY SAT RIDGE BUILDS WWD ALONG 27N IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOWS WITH SWLY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE
AREA. RIDGE MOVES NWD TO ALONG 29N SUN AND 31N MON. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES N EXPECT ELY TRADES TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT S OF 23N BY
MON.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
0918 UTC HI RES QSCAT PASS INDICATED E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W. MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THU. WINDS BECOME NE TO E BUT REMAIN LIGHT FRI
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT SAT AND SUN OVER N PORTIONS IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS BUILD 6 TO 8 FT AS WELL.
WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KT MON BUT WITH RESIDUAL NE SWELL OVER N
PORTIONS. OVER THE CARIBBEAN SW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
NEAR HISPANIOLA GIVE WAY TO MORE NORMAL TRADE WIND PATTERN LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF MEXICO...
FRESH NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF N OF 25N
IN THE WAKE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC. THESE
WINDS GRADUALLY FILTERS SWD OVER THE GULF W OF 90W THU AND FRI
AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
GULF SAT THROUGH MON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RESIDUAL NLY WINDS OF
20-25 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
GALE WARNING...N OF 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.