Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[Portastorm]

Based on the 12z GFS, the major cold shot doesn't look quite as dramatic as it has in previous runs ... but those seemed a bit extreme. The 12z run looks more realistic to me. Definitely some cold air on the way by the 20th.

It appears the long-range thoughts of Acccuweather's JB and some of the pro mets on the "other" board will be coming to fruition. The latter half of November will be much colder from the Rockies eastward. Finally, some seasonal temps! Now, if I could only get some rain for us Sonoran Desert, Austin chapter!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

From Joe Bastardi: The GFS is "WAY TOO WARM next week". (He cited Chicago and Pittsburgh in particular).

[Extremeweatherguy]

We have been focusing mostly on the GFS in this thread, but after looking at the ECMWF, it is definitely worth mentioning that model too. The 12z ECMWF shows a nearly 1050mb high pressure system over the southern plains by next Saturday morning...



Such strong high pressure systems usually bring with them great radiational cooling and thus very cold nights. If the ECMWF is correct, then freezing weather would be a good bet well south into the state of Texas, with sub-20F readings possible here in Oklahoma.

[Agua]

Bring on the ducks!!

[Weatherfreak14]

GFS lately has been showing the snow as far south as savannah, ga, with a developing NorEaster off the coast of NC, and VA with a cold front with plenty of moisture for snow for Carolinias and Sleet for Ga, and FL around Fri the 21st, with highs only in the 20's here in SC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tonight's 00z GFS at 180 hours...

Surface:


850mb:

[Valkhorn]

All I know is when I was living near the gulf coast I would wonder whether I would ever see any cold. Now that I'm living in Knoxville, the only question anymore is when, not if.

Bring it on.

I have to go to Kingsport, TN this weekend so I'll probably get to see a few more snow showers

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS is once again showing a winter storm scenario in the southern plains by next weekend...

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12z GFS is once again showing a winter storm scenario in the southern plains by next weekend...

I don't put too much faith in the GFS beyond its lobotomy at tau 180, but the 540 dm thickness line is actually South of the 850 mb freezing line, implying the GFS sees more than just a thin wedge of cold air...

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS predicts killing freeze for HOU!

Code: Select all

       SFC       850     SFC     SFC     700    3/6      500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     HR      HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK


Code: Select all

MON 12Z 24-NOV  -1.3     4.1    1025      50      29    0.00     576     556   

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS is showing Oklahoma City getting down to 17F on both November 23rd and November 24th. This is still 10 days out though, so changes can be expected. In the shorted term, the GFS is predicting a low of 29F in Oklahoma City this upcoming Sunday morning (November 16th).

[Johnny]

From the Dallas/Fort Worth Office this afternoon.


FORECAST STAYS DRY THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF OUR NEXT FRONT TO THE END OF
THE WEEK AND HAS BACKED OFF ON EXTENT OF COLD AIR. ECMWF ALSO
SUPPORTS A WARMER FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ITS
SOLUTION IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO LEVEL OUT AROUND SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

[Portastorm]

Um Ed, 4.1 Celsius at the surface is not a killing freeze ... at least in my part of Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Um Ed, 4.1 Celsius at the surface is not a killing freeze ... at least in my part of Texas.

Looking at the actual text data, it is supposed to read -1.3C at the surface and 4.1C at 850mb, but for some reason it got switched around in Ed's post. With that said though, -1.3C (29.6F) still wouldn't really be considered a "killing freeze" unless you were in far south Florida.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS run (11/14/08)...

144 hrs - 6 days out


156 hrs - 6.5 days out


168 hrs - 7 days out


180 hrs - 7.5 days out


192 hrs - 8 days out


204 hrs - 8.5 days out


This run continues to show a strong high pressure system and its associated cold airmass working its way into the lower 48 next week.

[cheezyWXguy]

00z GFS run (11/14/08)...

144 hrs - 6 days out


156 hrs - 6.5 days out


168 hrs - 7 days out


180 hrs - 7.5 days out


192 hrs - 8 days out


204 hrs - 8.5 days out


This run continues to show a strong high pressure system and its associated cold airmass working its way into the lower 48 next week.

well, it is nice to see that the cool weather is finally getting closer, with 2 freezes being shown by that model run for my area. It would be nice to get some precip with the cold though. Since its november, i wouldnt expect a winter storm, but some rain here and there with the approaching fronts sure would be appreciated.

[iorange55]

I'm new to this site, just wanted to say hey. I saw it last night on my search through google for winter predictions for Texas. All of this is very interesting, I was up all last night reading up on the boards. So....yeah pointless comment ends now.

[gboudx]

Welcome iorange55. There's some good stuff posted here about Tx winter weather, so stick around.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12pm 11/14/08 Update on the modeling...

-The 12z GFS is now suddenly much warmer for next week. It only shows a glancing cool shot for the plains, with most of the coldest air staying toward the north and east part of the country. The coldest period for the plains, according to this run of the GFS, would be early next week. More flip flops are possible in future runs of the model though, so stay tuned!

-The 00z ECMWF shows a strong high (1040mb+) moving down the plains early next week, with another strong high then set to follow late in the week. Both of these highs will probably bring a period of chilly weather to the central and eastern US.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12pm 11/14/08 Update on the modeling...

-The 12z GFS is now suddenly much warmer for next week. It only shows a glancing cool shot for the plains, with most of the coldest air staying toward the north and east part of the country. The coldest period for the plains, according to this run of the GFS, would be early next week. More flip flops are possible in future runs of the model though, so stay tuned!

-The 00z ECMWF shows a strong high (1040mb+) moving down the plains early next week, with another strong high then set to follow late in the week. Both of these highs will probably bring a period of chilly weather to the central and eastern US.

Rain and cool, but not cold, for the Cowboys on Thanksgiving per the GFS.