BAY OF BENGAL - CYCLONIC STORM LAILA (01B)

[ugaap]

LAILA making making Landfall over Andhra Pradesh Coast at Lat. 15.6-15.8N and 80.3-80.4E.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... first visible

[KWT]

LAILA making making Landfall over Andhra Pradesh Coast at Lat. 15.6-15.8N and 80.3-80.4E.

Looking at the Vis imagery looks like its just offshore still, not by a long way mind you...

[ugaap]

LAILA making making Landfall over Andhra Pradesh Coast at Lat. 15.6-15.8N and 80.3-80.4E.

Looking at the Vis imagery looks like its just offshore still, not by a long way mind you...

Agree with you. However, now 0200Z visible imagery is showing landfall.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the visible and microwaves, looks to be about 70 kt after weakening to about 60 kt earlier. (I think it peaked around 75 kt about 24 hours ago)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[JonathanBelles]

A Twitter search for Laila is turning up many reports from India about the cyclone. According to a few reports 30,000 people have been evacuated. Seems as if the cyclone is a cold cyclone as many posters are complaining about the cold and that they need blankets.

[jit2006]

WTIO31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.7N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.8N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.6N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.4N 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.9N 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.6N 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.3N 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 81.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 192330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192020Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWING
A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS, AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE AMSR-E
IMAGE. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING
RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 48 AND ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS, WHICH
DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION
BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z
AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNINGS
(WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[jit2006]

[KWT]

Based on the visible and microwaves, looks to be about 70 kt after weakening to about 60 kt earlier. (I think it peaked around 75 kt about 24 hours ago)

I don't think its quite that high, 60-65kts looks about right to me, though I fo agree it could well have been about 70kts earlier on in its lifecycle IMO.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY



RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI



[1] TROPICAL STORM ‘LAILA’ ADVISORY NO. SEVENTEEN ISSUED AT 0200 UTC OF 20TH MAY 2010 BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS OF 20TH MAY.

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘LAILA’ OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 20TH MAY 2010 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 15.00N AND LONG. 81.00E, ABOUT 120 KM NORTHEAST OF NELLORE (43245), 100 KM SOUTHEAST OF ONGOLE (43221) AND 120 KM SOUTH OF MACHILIPATNAM (43185).

sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 55 KNOTS. the state of the sea is VERY HIGH around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 986 hpa.

SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT 11.50N TO 17.00N WEST OF LONG 83.00E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS BETWEEN -800C TO -900C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10-20 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 18.00N. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SHEAR TENDENCY OVER PAST 24 HOURS IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN KAVALI AND KAKINADA, CLOSE TO MACHILIPATNAM BY AFTERNOON OF 20TH MAY 2010. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGN OF WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASE OF WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION.



BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

DATE/TIME(UTC)


POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)


SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

20-05-2010/0000


15.0/81.0


100-110 gusting to 120

20-05-2010/0600


15.5/81.0


90-100 gusting to 110

20-05-2010/1200


16.0/81.0


70-80 gusting to 90

20-05-2010/1800


16.5/81.5


70-80 gusting to 90

21-05-2010/0000


17.5/82.5


70-80 gusting to 90

21-05-2010/1200


18.5/83.5


60-70 gusting to 80

22-05-2010/0000


19.5/85.0


50-60 gusting to 70

22-05-2010/1200


20.5/86.5


40-50 gusting to 60

[HurricaneBill]

Indian state braces for fierce storm; 15 killed

[jit2006]

WTIO31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.6N 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.4N 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.1N 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.0N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.3N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.3N 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.1N 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 80.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM CHENNAI AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM A
RADAR VELOCITY PRODUCT FROM CHENNAI. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT
WILL ENCOUNTER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 72 AND ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR
SOUTH-EASTERN BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS,
WHICH DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION
BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z,
210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNINGS
(WTIO32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[jit2006]

[salmon123]

Much likely it will lose strength over the same place ....

[ugaap]

Can anyone confirm initial landfall of LAILA or is it yet bracing along the coast?

[djones65]

It appears in my opinion that the system has become somewhat decoupled with the middle and upper level circulation has moved inland over India while the low level circulation with only low-topped convection meandering just off or along the coast in vicinity of 15.8N and 81E. So, in my opinion the sensible weather is already inland and the population living in southern India and northeastward towards Bangladesh need to be aware of heavy rains. I wouldn't be surprised to see the mid and upper level circulations follow the projected forecasts from JTWC and bringing threat of heavy rains along the India coast to Bangladesh while the low level vortex gradually spins down very near the Indian coast. Of course this is not official information and I am just providing my opinions and interpretation based on satellite presentation and microwave imagery which still shows a low level center along the coast of India.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 80.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 80.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.6N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.4N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.1N 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.9N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.1N 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.1N 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.9N 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 80.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW, DEMS, AND KNES. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT
WILL ENCOUNTER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 72 AND ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Still near or over the coast

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

[1] TROPICAL STORM ‘LAILA’ ADVISORY NO. TWENTY ONE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 20TH MAY 2010 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 20TH MAY.
THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘LAILA’ OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS AND CROSSED ANDHRA PRADESH COAST NEAR BAPTLA (43220) BETWEEN 1100 AND 1200 UTC. IT WEAKENED AND LAY AS A CYCLONIC STORM, CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 20TH MAY 2010 VERY CLOSE TO BAPATLA (43220).
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 45 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992HPA.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT 12.00N TO 19.00N WEST OF LONG 83.00E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS BETWEEN -800C TO -900C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10-15 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 17.00N. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SHEAR TENDENCY OVER PAST 24 HOURS IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE INITIALLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THEN RECURVE IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS ORISSA.
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
20-05-2010/1200
16.0/80.5
75-85 GUSTING TO 95
20-05-2010/1800
16.5/80.5
75-85 GUSTING TO 95
21-05-2010/0000
17.0/81.0
65-75 GUSTING TO 85
21-05-2010/0600
17.5/81.5
65-75 GUSTING TO 85
21.05.2010/1200
18.0/82.0
55-65 GUSTING TO 75
22-05-2010/0000
19.0/84.0
50-60 GUSTING TO 70
22-05-2010/1200
20.0/86.0
45-55 GUSTING TO 65
23-05-2010/0000
21.0/88.0
50-60 GUSTING TO 70
23-05-2010/1200
22.0/90.0
55-65 GUSTING TO 75