EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Convection waning like it did at this time yesterday, I think when the next big convective burst develops we will probably see an upgrade as each burst has brought the system closer to being upgraded.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 271736
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 27 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH

[tailgater]

Convection waning like it did at this time yesterday, I think when the next big convective burst develops we will probably see an upgrade as each burst has brought the system closer to being upgraded.

Refiring just about where the center is being reported.

[Frank2]

The NHC still places 90E in the high category for development, but the latest TWO is a little less agressive when it comes to any development in the short-term (<24 hours) - at this point the area has good outflow but remains stationary, and ITCZ disturbances often form and later dissipate with little or no overall motion, so we'll see what happens...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

vorticity increasing

[Macrocane]

This is the rainfall (in mm) between 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today in El Salvador. As you can see the east coast received lots of rain (>70 mm or >2.76 inches), the highest value was registered in Puerto Parada, 118.2 mm/4.65 inches, it's the third day in a row that some stations report more than 100 mm in a 24 hours period.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Continues nearly stationary.

EP, 90, 2010052718, , BEST, 0, 129N, 945W, 25, 1006, LO

[KWT]

The NHC still places 90E in the high category for development, but the latest TWO is a little less agressive when it comes to any development in the short-term (<24 hours) - at this point the area has good outflow but remains stationary, and ITCZ disturbances often form and later dissipate with little or no overall motion, so we'll see what happens...

Frank

Yep, that being said the reason why the dscussion was less agressive was probably because at the time the convection was wanning, but I think with a new burst going up over the center currently we may well see the odds increase again, to the point where they will probably say a depression will form tonight or tomorrow...

As you say, the outflow looks very good as well, system will move to the NE sooner rather then later.

[Macrocane]

The models seem to be moving this system more slowly on the last runs, if it stays more time on water it could have a better chance of developing.

[KWT]

Worth noting Macrocane that whilst the GFDL does take a good 24-36hrs to develop the system into a proper closed circulation, it then quite quickly ramps up the system towards hurricane status.

Still think given the upper conditions which are decent enough that once the system does establish itself it will strengthen at a decent clip.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 272345
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 27 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE BECOME LESS CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 90, 2010052800, , BEST, 0, 130N, 945W, 25, 1006, LO

[HURAKAN]

Should blossom again tomorrow

[Macrocane]

It's seems that the convection is re-firing near the possible center, let's see if this time it can get its act together.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 271400
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 12.9N 94.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 94.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 94.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING,
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. A 270759Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWED A
BROAD LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
A 270404Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS DEPICTED A DEVELOPING LLCC
WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD
NATURE OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
LLCC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 281400Z.//

[Hurricane Andrew]

It's really getting it's act together. I think TD by the 8AM or 11 AM updates.(EDT)

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 28 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE WINDS TO THE EAST
OF THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM EL
SALVADOR WESTWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/STEWART