Wave WSW of CV Islands

[SoupBone]

Unreal. It's blossoming convection off Africa! 12Z Imagery showed the convection dieing and the 15Z reforms it. I think this wave may have a very potent circulation that may just be about done coming off the coast.

What's amazing to me is the distance these waves travel to get to us. So many things that can change the course of a storm yet many of them still make it into the GoM. Crazy stuff...so when can I use this smilie again?

[Riptide]

Not gonna happen when you have a 2005 like Azores High lingering about...

Caribbean hurricanes will probably be somewhat common this season but it is so far south it might not even reach the Caribbean intact.

[KWT]

I'm not sure that its all that surpising the convection is developing, looks to me the convection is developing from far Eastern Africa which would be at peak time for storm development...so not sure much can be read into it just yet until it gains more space...

The wave further west is what we want to see really.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian

[Ivanhater]

12z Nogaps

[Ivanhater]

[hurricaneCW]

The Azores high may push storms further south, but the models are also developing a big weakness in the Western Atlantic. This could be a dangerous set-up for the U.S. because:

A. Storms are likely to stay below 15N all the way to 50-60W, meaning less likely to curve out to sea early.

B. The large weakness in the Western Atlantic that's showing up on models will allow storms to turn to the NW at around 60-70W and that would put them right on target toward Florida, the Gulf, and the Southeast coast. The blocking high in eastern Canada will also serve to block any storm that tries to curve out early.

[cycloneye]

I am surprised that there was no mention at the 2 PM TWO.

[BigA]

So far, so intact. Hasn't poofed yet like its forefathers, and looks pretty solid in the above loop. Go west young wave!

[Tropics Guy]

Yea, would have thought at least a yellow code, looking at the latest sat pics.............

TG

[cycloneye]

Should I modify the title to say (Strong Wave south of CV Islands?) Or I let it as is now as I said earler,there may be some confusion which wave are the models latching on.

[hurricaneCW]

So exactly which one are we watching, the one from 20-25W or the one right near the African coast.

[cycloneye]

There was no introduction of any new wave at the 2 PM TWD. The only mention of convection is on the ITCZ paragraph.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

.THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 7N30W 8N43W THEN RESUMES
NEAR 13N48W 10N55W 10N62W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-11N E OF 17N TO JUST INLAND OVER GUINEA AFRICA. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
11N20W TO 7N26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-40W...FROM
2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-41W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 7N
FROM 51W-59W INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE COAST OF GUYANA SOUTH
AMERICA.

[littlevince]

Big loop 5Mb (0930-1730z)

click to zoom

[KWT]

LOoks like the wave itself is just about to come off Africa, good turning on the southern wave.

Now the wave to the west is starting to look quite nice...

[RL3AO]

Big loop 5Mb (0930-1730z)

click to zoom

You can see the ITCZ at work in that loop if you look at the lower level clouds.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the 12z Euro dropped it

[cycloneye]

Back to square one after the EURO drop.

[Ivanhater]

Yep, 12z Euro, nothing. Although last night showed a hurricane and other models are sniffing it as well. So I would wait til the 00z run to see if the Euro is really onto nothing developing.

[Vortmax1]

The ECM was way out there in the future on the 00Z.
See how it's looking in the next 48 hours. If anything meaningful is going to happen it will get on it and stay on it.