ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[cycloneye]

SHIP increases shear at the end of run.

Code: Select all

       *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL912010  08/01/10  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    33    38    44    55    67    76    79    80    80    76    72
V (KT) LAND       25    29    33    38    44    55    67    76    79    80    80    76    72
V (KT) LGE mod    25    28    30    33    37    45    55    67    76    81    80    76    69

SHEAR (KT)        14    15    10    14     9     7     3     6    12    15    19    30    25
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0     0    -3     0    -2     1     5     0     0     1     0     0
SHEAR DIR         31    47    53    52    39    54   345   285   312   292   273   264   273
SST (C)         29.2  29.0  28.8  28.7  28.6  28.4  28.3  28.3  28.7  28.7  28.5  28.3  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   154   152   149   148   147   144   143   144   150   149   145   142   141
ADJ. POT. INT.   154   155   153   152   151   150   148   148   154   149   141   133   130
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     6     7     8     8     9    10    10    11    10
700-500 MB RH     74    76    77    79    75    71    71    66    64    60    65    63    65
GFS VTEX (KT)      6     7     7     7     8     9    12    13    13    13    14    13    12
850 MB ENV VOR    30    26    25    25    22    19    16     8    -4   -13   -31   -36   -32
200 MB DIV        99   116   119   105    66    50     2    10    12    46    67    35    27
LAND (KM)       1427  1423  1429  1447  1436  1245  1121  1072  1081   941   792   616   540
LAT (DEG N)      9.1   9.4   9.7  10.1  10.4  11.3  12.5  14.0  15.6  17.3  18.9  20.5  21.8
LONG(DEG W)     35.4  36.4  37.4  38.6  39.8  42.6  45.7  48.9  52.3  55.4  58.2  60.3  62.1
STM SPEED (KT)     7    10    11    12    13    16    17    18    18    16    14    12    10
HEAT CONTENT      46    42    40    36    34    37    42    49    75    73    58    31    48

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/  4      CX,CY:  -3/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  703  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  14.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  87.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   6.  13.  21.  26.  31.  35.  37.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   7.   8.   8.   7.   6.   4.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   2.   3.   4.   7.   9.  10.  10.   9.   8.   7.   7.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   3.   4.   4.   4.   5.   3.   3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   5.   4.   4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   8.  13.  19.  30.  42.  51.  54.  55.  55.  51.  47.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST     08/01/10  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  12.4 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 101.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 128.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  78.0 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  14.9 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  39.6 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    59% is   4.7 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    38% is   4.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    20% is   4.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     8% is   2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST     08/01/10  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST     08/01/2010  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[crownweather]

Rapid intensification of 25kts+ 59 percent. Hmmm....

[Recurve]

I wonder what models were showing this far out -- was the Tutt already in the picture for Bonnie?

It's interesting what the GFS shows in the Atlantic high, at times bringing it pretty far back from the east coast, possible chances for a storm (if this one develops fairly soon) to do as someone said earlier, a Floyd type track. Could mean a real scare for South Florida with a strong system approaching and then sweeping northwestward.

I'm guessing the models are showing the system developing with no limiting factors because they're not modeling any shear or nearby lows, both of which could be factors. Because the models at this point kind of have my area in their sights, I'm going to try to ignore intensity and exact path and focus on modeling the high and CONUS troughs.

The faster this develops the better for everyone I say, greater chance for missing most or all of the Antilles, Bahamas, ultimate recurve.

[Blown Away]

00Z UKMET, stronger:

What are you thinking Gator? Do you think the shear forecasted at @120 hours is because 91L will be at the closest position to the forecasted TUTT and in the process of getting trapped under a building high which should create better upper level conditions farther west into the Bahamas area?

[SFLcane]

06z GFS paints a pretty hostile environment close to come.

[gatorcane]

00Z UKMET, stronger:

What are you thinking Gator? Do you think the shear forecasted at @120 hours is because 91L will be at the closest position to the forecasted TUTT and in the process of getting trapped under a building high which should create better upper level conditions farther west into the Bahamas area?

Both the GFS and ECMWF do not really strengthen this considerably (i.e. make it a hurricane) until it is approaching the SE Bahamas (somewhere east of the Bahamas) . It wouldn't surprise me that there are periods of shear that will impact 91L curbing any kind of intensification. What I am looking at is whether it could find itself in an area of favorable conditions in the long-range. It doesn't appear shear will kill it off though, rather allow it to head more west and not deepen enough to feel weaknesses to the north.

[Blown Away]

00Z UKMET, stronger:

What are you thinking Gator? Do you think the shear forecasted at @120 hours is because 91L will be at the closest position to the forecasted TUTT and in the process of getting trapped under a building high which should create better upper level conditions farther west into the Bahamas area?

Both the GFS and ECMWF do not really strengthen this considerably (i.e. make it a hurricane) until it is approaching the SE Bahamas (somewhere east of the Bahamas) . It wouldn't surprise me that there are periods of shear that will impact 91L curbing any kind of intensification. What I am looking at is whether it could find itself in an area of favorable conditions in the long-range. It doesn't appear shear will kill it off though, rather allow it to head more west and not deepen enough to feel weaknesses to the north.

Yeah, that's what makes me a little concerned, the TUTT may keep the lid on 91L keeping a shallower TS type storm moving WNW and not feeling enough weakness near the NE Caribbean to recurve and possibly intensify on our doorstep. Long way to go, but I think we will be closely watching this one all week!

[JTE50]

This one might be a bit easier to read - SHIPS http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/guidance/?C=N;O=D

[cycloneye]

Update of 12z run.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 011422
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1422 UTC SUN AUG 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100801 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100801  1200   100802  0000   100802  1200   100803  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.0N  36.3W   10.4N  37.9W   10.9N  40.1W   11.6N  42.8W
BAMD    10.0N  36.3W   10.6N  38.1W   11.4N  40.2W   12.4N  42.6W
BAMM    10.0N  36.3W   10.7N  38.2W   11.4N  40.6W   12.4N  43.3W
LBAR    10.0N  36.3W   10.7N  38.6W   11.3N  41.6W   12.1N  45.0W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          47KTS          58KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          47KTS          58KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100803  1200   100804  1200   100805  1200   100806  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.5N  45.9W   14.8N  52.8W   17.6N  59.6W   20.3N  65.4W
BAMD    13.5N  45.2W   16.0N  50.2W   17.8N  54.1W   19.1N  56.4W
BAMM    13.7N  46.5W   16.7N  52.9W   19.9N  58.4W   22.7N  62.0W
LBAR    12.8N  48.7W   14.6N  55.8W   19.7N  61.2W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        68KTS          76KTS          76KTS          68KTS
DSHP        68KTS          76KTS          76KTS          68KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR =  36.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =   9.4N LONM12 =  34.5W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =   9.0N LONM24 =  33.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[tina25]

How accurate are models when a storm hasn't even formed yet?

[vacanechaser]

How accurate are models when a storm hasn't even formed yet?

well not very accurate... however, the key to this is you are getting model support... the global models, gfs, euro, ukmet and even the nocraps, "haha", are all showing development... when you get that... its almost a sure bet to get development... now, where it may be heading, just pay no attention to that for now... still to early...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

Based on what the models are showing- is it safe to rule out a hit for someone who is going to the TX Gulf coast next week? Or too early to tell-

[knotimpaired]

Update of 12z run.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 011422
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1422 UTC SUN AUG 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100801 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100801  1200   100802  0000   100802  1200   100803  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.0N  36.3W   10.4N  37.9W   10.9N  40.1W   11.6N  42.8W
BAMD    10.0N  36.3W   10.6N  38.1W   11.4N  40.2W   12.4N  42.6W
BAMM    10.0N  36.3W   10.7N  38.2W   11.4N  40.6W   12.4N  43.3W
LBAR    10.0N  36.3W   10.7N  38.6W   11.3N  41.6W   12.1N  45.0W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          47KTS          58KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          47KTS          58KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100803  1200   100804  1200   100805  1200   100806  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.5N  45.9W   14.8N  52.8W   17.6N  59.6W   20.3N  65.4W
BAMD    13.5N  45.2W   16.0N  50.2W   17.8N  54.1W   19.1N  56.4W
BAMM    13.7N  46.5W   16.7N  52.9W   19.9N  58.4W   22.7N  62.0W
LBAR    12.8N  48.7W   14.6N  55.8W   19.7N  61.2W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        68KTS          76KTS          76KTS          68KTS
DSHP        68KTS          76KTS          76KTS          68KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR =  36.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =   9.4N LONM12 =  34.5W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =   9.0N LONM24 =  33.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


Maybe I will not be getting the shutters out so quick after all.

[vacanechaser]

Based on what the models are showing- is it safe to rule out a hit for someone who is going to the TX Gulf coast next week? Or too early to tell-

way to early to know yet... waaaaaaay to early



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So based on the models I would say that:
-It will develop and strengthen for a couple of days until it reaches the Lesser Antilles or Puerto Rico (high confidence)
-Then it will weaken because of increasing shear and will track north of the Caribbean Islands (Moderate confidence)
-And later intensification is possible again and may become a strong hurricane near the Bahamas. (Low confidence).

I'm impatient to see what the 12z models will do with it.

[Ikester]

Euro has been fairly consistent at least for a few runs. Once again shows a cyclone heading for Texas at 240 hours. Regardless of whether it is Texas, Mexico, Latin America, or Alabama, what you want to pay attention to is the placement of the high and for several runs now, the Euro places this in the central gulf. See links below.

00z:



12z: (yesterday)

[hurricaneCW]

The EURO has a bias of taking storms too far west especially the NW gulf and Texas. The high to the north will not be strong enough to force it that far west as of now. As of right now, it getting near the Bahamas is probably the best bet, and it's too far to indicate where it will go afterward.

[Ikester]

The EURO has a bias of taking storms too far west especially the NW gulf and Texas. The high to the north will not be strong enough to force it that far west as of now. As of right now, it getting near the Bahamas is probably the best bet, and it's too far to indicate where it will go afterward.

And the GFS is always too deep with troughs and is always too far east. What model doesn't have flaws? While I think there is as much chance of it hitting Texas as it does hitting South Carolina, the fact remains is that people pull the ol' "oh the high can't possibly be this or that model always does that." The point is the Euro has been consistent and got it right with Alex and TD 2. There are indications of the high backing off the central gulf and building back east as this approaches. Will it happen? I dunno.

[Weatherfreak000]

This storm will be a huge determiner as far as tracks to be scared of this season IMO. Bonnie before Colin makes me very uneasy about the track through Florida. Anything coming in that direction commonly targets the NGOM...

[JTE50]

Based on what the models are showing- is it safe to rule out a hit for someone who is going to the TX Gulf coast next week? Or too early to tell-

When and if 91L spins up watch the NHC website for the 5 day forecast track. That's your best bet.