Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 92L)

[chrisnnavarre]

Can't believe you guys aren't all over this?

IMAGE

I was wondering the same thing... Everyone's more concerned with TD 4.

I would think we would need to actually see something down in the eastern caribbean first...however the model indications are concerning. Especially with the shorter lead time than TD4. I think this is going to be a long, long year for us on the Gulf Coast. Geez...looking at that model you'd think it was Sep-Oct. already.

[Ivanhater]

00Z NAM starts to spin it up at the end of the run

[Weather Watcher]

Formation aloft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticyclon ... ed_systems
The development of anticyclones aloft occurs in warm core cyclones, such as tropical cyclones, when latent heat caused by the formation of clouds is released aloft, which increases air temperatures and the resultant atmospheric thickness of the layer, which increases high pressure aloft which acts to evacuate their outflow.

An anticyclone aloft is a positive, if you're looking for development. Just remember...for a tropical storm, you want low pressure (cyclone) at the surface and high pressure (anticyclone) in the upper atmosphere.

Thanks I was wondering what that meant too but now it makes sense. Does td 4 have one over it too?

[ROCK]

it needs to get some distance between it and SA before it can do anything. IN the Ecarib death zone right now.......but these model runs are a lot more worrisome than TD4 attm....track like the 18z would bring it over the hottest part of the basin..not to mention the GOM is warmer now than 2005...

[ROCK]

Formation aloft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticyclon ... ed_systems
The development of anticyclones aloft occurs in warm core cyclones, such as tropical cyclones, when latent heat caused by the formation of clouds is released aloft, which increases air temperatures and the resultant atmospheric thickness of the layer, which increases high pressure aloft which acts to evacuate their outflow.

An anticyclone aloft is a positive, if you're looking for development. Just remember...for a tropical storm, you want low pressure (cyclone) at the surface and high pressure (anticyclone) in the upper atmosphere.

Thanks I was wondering what that meant too but now it makes sense. Does td 4 have one over it too?

yes, but TD4 has other issues right now....

[tailgater]

Nam has it putt putting along and you can see TD4 catching up to it's longitude further weakening the ridge and taking this small system in a NW direction. This would be very hard to predict. Speed of both systems, strength of both systems, strength of ridge and strength of trough. If the GFS has this run correct it should win some type of award. I personally don't think it will come anywhere near LA. well west of here or well east( feeling the trough and weakness from TD4. IMHO
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HouTXmetro]

Wow, more and more models jumping on board...I'm tuned in.

[Weather Watcher]

Formation aloft
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticyclon ... ed_systems
The development of anticyclones aloft occurs in warm core cyclones, such as tropical cyclones, when latent heat caused by the formation of clouds is released aloft, which increases air temperatures and the resultant atmospheric thickness of the layer, which increases high pressure aloft which acts to evacuate their outflow.

An anticyclone aloft is a positive, if you're looking for development. Just remember...for a tropical storm, you want low pressure (cyclone) at the surface and high pressure (anticyclone) in the upper atmosphere.

Thanks I was wondering what that meant too but now it makes sense. Does td 4 have one over it too?[/quot


yes, but TD4 has other issues right now....

Thank you for answerin and I agree td4 does look messy.

[Countrygirl911]

I pray that this does not come to happen. we sure do not need it in the gulf and over the oil spill sight just as they are about to cap the well for good and also on a more biger not not to mention peoples safety. Also if this does come to LA in about 8 day i will be very heart broken it would for one bring back to many memories for me and also my sweet little fuzzy butt chicks are being shipped to me on the 9th. i do not want to seemlike i sound weird or mean or crazy but it just needs not to even develop for everyones sake and safety

[chzzdekr81]

Finally, more people are starting to be concerned about this.

[South Texas Storms]

i just hope it bring us a little relief from the heat here in south texas and gives us some nice summer tropical downpours

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[South Texas Storms]

it looks like a nice blow up of convection over the water...

[ConvergenceZone]

I've abandoned the TD4 thread, this potential system seems much more interesting....

[rockyman]

00z GFS is running:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[MHurricanes]

TD4 looks like it's going to fizzle. Too many elements working against it. However, this new disturbance may be the one to watch. Some of the early model runs obviously see the potential for cyclone formation.

- MHurricanes

[ConvergenceZone]

00z GFS is running:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I hope someone posts the data as it runs...I'm still learning, but I learn something new every month here.

[SouthFloridawx]

Not much happening on this run for this area yet...

[Ivanhater]

Yep...18z GFS was a fluke run

[South Texas Storms]

when did the 18z gfs start to develop it?