00z Best Track
Remains at 50kts.
AL, 17, 2011092600, , BEST, 0, 138N, 321W, 50, 997, TS
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
ATL: PHILIPPE - Post - Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
...PHILIPPE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 32.5W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
PHILIPPE IS AFFECTED BY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE
IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS PULSED A COUPLE OF TIMES SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPEARANCE
OF THE CYCLONE ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY IS QUITE RAGGED...
AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KT. PHILIPPE IS BEING
KEPT AT 50 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE GENEROUS.
PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND
ITS MOTION IS CURRENTLY 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT. OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 40W LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
AZORES. THIS SHOULD KEEP PHILIPPE ON A NORTHWESTWARD BUT SLOWER
TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY AFTER 48 HOURS. PHILIPPE SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE
EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW BY DAY 3...BUT THE MODELS APPEAR
TO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THAT WILL AFFECT THE INTENSITY. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A DEEP VORTEX AND TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE AZORES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME...PRESUMABLY
BECAUSE IT HAS PHILIPPE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH AND BEING
STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. ASSUMING THAT THE REAL STORY WILL END
UP BEING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS BUT
SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE WEAKER
ECMWF.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS PHILIPPE REACHING
HURRICANE STATUS...BUT IT STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING AND IS HIGHER
THAN ALL OF THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND IS AFFECTED BY STRONGER SHEAR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 14.1N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 15.0N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.0N 34.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 16.9N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 17.8N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 20.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 25.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
...PHILIPPE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 32.5W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
PHILIPPE IS AFFECTED BY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE
IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS PULSED A COUPLE OF TIMES SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPEARANCE
OF THE CYCLONE ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY IS QUITE RAGGED...
AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KT. PHILIPPE IS BEING
KEPT AT 50 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE GENEROUS.
PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND
ITS MOTION IS CURRENTLY 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT. OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 40W LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
AZORES. THIS SHOULD KEEP PHILIPPE ON A NORTHWESTWARD BUT SLOWER
TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY AFTER 48 HOURS. PHILIPPE SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE
EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW BY DAY 3...BUT THE MODELS APPEAR
TO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THAT WILL AFFECT THE INTENSITY. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A DEEP VORTEX AND TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE AZORES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME...PRESUMABLY
BECAUSE IT HAS PHILIPPE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH AND BEING
STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. ASSUMING THAT THE REAL STORY WILL END
UP BEING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS BUT
SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE WEAKER
ECMWF.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS PHILIPPE REACHING
HURRICANE STATUS...BUT IT STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING AND IS HIGHER
THAN ALL OF THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND IS AFFECTED BY STRONGER SHEAR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 14.1N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 15.0N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.0N 34.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 16.9N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 17.8N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 20.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 25.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C. HOWEVER...THE CURVED BAND
THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW LESS
DISTINCT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT...WHICH IS THE
AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 0453 UTC TRMM
OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
WEST AFRICA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW
DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH...AND THE MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO. BEYOND TWO DAYS...
HOWEVER...THE MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER WEST...SHOWING A FAIRLY STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST MOTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND
GFDN MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE
AND THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...LIES BETWEEN
THE EXTREMES AND ENDS UP NEAR THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS.
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...WHICH SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 24-36
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 14.7N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 15.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.4N 35.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 17.3N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 18.3N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 20.8N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 23.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 25.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C. HOWEVER...THE CURVED BAND
THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW LESS
DISTINCT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT...WHICH IS THE
AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 0453 UTC TRMM
OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
WEST AFRICA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW
DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH...AND THE MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO. BEYOND TWO DAYS...
HOWEVER...THE MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER WEST...SHOWING A FAIRLY STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST MOTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND
GFDN MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE
AND THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...LIES BETWEEN
THE EXTREMES AND ENDS UP NEAR THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS.
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...WHICH SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 24-36
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 14.7N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 15.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.4N 35.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 17.3N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 18.3N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 20.8N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 23.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 25.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
-90C clouds according to the 5 am discussion.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Advisories
11 AM advisory.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
...PHILIPPE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 34.2W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.2 WEST.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN OF
PHILIPPE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. THE STORM IS BEING AFFECTED BY
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO
DIMINISH...ONLY SLIGHT SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 20N
AND...IF THIS FLOW PERSISTS...PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AFTER 24
HOURS...CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE...
HOWEVER...THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN SHOWN HERE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PHILIPPE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/10. THE STORM SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 30N...MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH
DEPICTS A WEAKER CYCLONE...IS AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT FORECASTS
PHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SINCE THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE
LATTER SCENARIO IS INDEED PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 15.2N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.0N 35.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.0N 36.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.1N 38.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 24.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 26.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
...PHILIPPE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 34.2W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.2 WEST.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN OF
PHILIPPE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. THE STORM IS BEING AFFECTED BY
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO
DIMINISH...ONLY SLIGHT SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 20N
AND...IF THIS FLOW PERSISTS...PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AFTER 24
HOURS...CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE...
HOWEVER...THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN SHOWN HERE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PHILIPPE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/10. THE STORM SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 30N...MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH
DEPICTS A WEAKER CYCLONE...IS AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT FORECASTS
PHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SINCE THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE
LATTER SCENARIO IS INDEED PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 15.2N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.0N 35.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.0N 36.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.1N 38.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 24.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 26.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Hylian Auree
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 150
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The latest GFS run does something odd with Philippe.
It does take it northwestward along the weakening East Atlantic ridge, but before it has a chance to head further north the GFS has a new subtropical ridge developing just ahead of it. It shows the ridge blocking any movement for a day or so as it builds westward, and then has Philippe following suite on a more easterly track. Still far ahead, but nonetheless an interesting and deviating run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
It does take it northwestward along the weakening East Atlantic ridge, but before it has a chance to head further north the GFS has a new subtropical ridge developing just ahead of it. It shows the ridge blocking any movement for a day or so as it builds westward, and then has Philippe following suite on a more easterly track. Still far ahead, but nonetheless an interesting and deviating run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re:
Hylian Auree wrote:The latest GFS run does something odd with Philippe.
It does take it northwestward along the weakening East Atlantic ridge, but before it has a chance to head further north the GFS has a new subtropical ridge developing just ahead of it. It shows the ridge blocking any movement for a day or so as it builds westward, and then has Philippe following suite on a more easterly track. Still far ahead, but nonetheless an interesting and deviating run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
The GFS has actually been quite consistent with this sort of track for at least the last day, not recurving philippe till about 50W-60W, so the early recurve is not cirtain yet.
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Epsilon_Fan
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
oh, joy, another Atlantic TS with an exposed circulation. Even the fishies can't hold together 
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
...PHILIPPE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 34.4W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME SINCE THIS MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD LINES OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES 50 KT AGAIN FOR THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL BEING IMPEDED OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AS PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND ASSUMING THE SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TOO
MUCH...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AS PHILIPPE MOVES FARTHER NORTH...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING TO COMMENCE BY 36
TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RELIABLE
LGEM GUIDANCE.
THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW NEAR 315/7. DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC. BY DAYS 3 TO 5...HOWEVER...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO 2 GENERAL CAMPS. SOME MODELS SUCH AS
THE HWRF...GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET HAVE THE CYCLONE
MISSING THE TROUGH AND BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. GIVEN
THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM 72 TO 120
HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 15.4N 34.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.1N 35.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 17.1N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 18.2N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 19.4N 38.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 22.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 24.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
...PHILIPPE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 34.4W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME SINCE THIS MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD LINES OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES 50 KT AGAIN FOR THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL BEING IMPEDED OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AS PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND ASSUMING THE SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TOO
MUCH...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AS PHILIPPE MOVES FARTHER NORTH...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING TO COMMENCE BY 36
TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RELIABLE
LGEM GUIDANCE.
THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW NEAR 315/7. DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC. BY DAYS 3 TO 5...HOWEVER...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO 2 GENERAL CAMPS. SOME MODELS SUCH AS
THE HWRF...GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET HAVE THE CYCLONE
MISSING THE TROUGH AND BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. GIVEN
THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM 72 TO 120
HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 15.4N 34.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.1N 35.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 17.1N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 18.2N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 19.4N 38.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 22.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 24.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Hylian Auree
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 150
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 7:01 pm
- Location: Willemstad, Curaçao
- Contact:
Mentioned the model split for the track in the discussion:
BY DAYS 3 TO 5...HOWEVER...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO 2 GENERAL CAMPS. SOME MODELS SUCH AS
THE HWRF...GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET HAVE THE CYCLONE
MISSING THE TROUGH AND BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. GIVEN
THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM 72 TO 120
HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET.
Right now, the former solution seems a tad more likely, but it'll be a close call depending on how the trough develops and when it lifts.
It should also depend a little on how Philippe develops, but if it were to deteriorate as forecast it would most likely slow and get trapped under ridge.
BY DAYS 3 TO 5...HOWEVER...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO 2 GENERAL CAMPS. SOME MODELS SUCH AS
THE HWRF...GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET HAVE THE CYCLONE
MISSING THE TROUGH AND BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. GIVEN
THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM 72 TO 120
HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET.
Right now, the former solution seems a tad more likely, but it'll be a close call depending on how the trough develops and when it lifts.
It should also depend a little on how Philippe develops, but if it were to deteriorate as forecast it would most likely slow and get trapped under ridge.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Philippe is looking better than ever tonight, I would say it's a 55-60 kt storm right now, with a little help from Dmax could be a hurricane tomorrow.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145255
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Advisories
270246
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
...PHILIPPE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 34.8W
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
AN ASCAT PASS CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 2304 UTC...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS
SHOWN IN THE SWATH WERE 40 KT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THIS IS THE FIRST
REAL GROUND-TRUTH DATA WE HAVE RECEIVED OVER PHILIPPE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND THE LOWERING OF THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEEN MORE AS
AN ADJUSTMENT RATHER THAN A WEAKENING OF THE STORM. NONETHELESS...
PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT
STRENGTHENING...IF NOT INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. THE SHEAR COULD
DIMINISH BY DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL
COL...AND THAT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP PHILIPPE FROM
DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN LOWERED PRIMARILY DUE TO THE ADJUSTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE
SHIPS AND LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO
ACQUIRE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT TO ITS MOTION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE LIFTS NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SET...FIRST SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF...MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. SINCE PHILIPPE IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANYWAYS...IT
SHOULD BECOME BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH AND WOULD MOST
LIKELY FOLLOW THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS THEREFORE A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TVCA
CONSENSUS...AND EVEN SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND AT DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 15.9N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 16.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 17.4N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 18.3N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 19.5N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 22.0N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 24.0N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 25.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
...PHILIPPE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 34.8W
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
AN ASCAT PASS CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 2304 UTC...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS
SHOWN IN THE SWATH WERE 40 KT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THIS IS THE FIRST
REAL GROUND-TRUTH DATA WE HAVE RECEIVED OVER PHILIPPE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND THE LOWERING OF THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEEN MORE AS
AN ADJUSTMENT RATHER THAN A WEAKENING OF THE STORM. NONETHELESS...
PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT
STRENGTHENING...IF NOT INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. THE SHEAR COULD
DIMINISH BY DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL
COL...AND THAT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP PHILIPPE FROM
DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN LOWERED PRIMARILY DUE TO THE ADJUSTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE
SHIPS AND LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO
ACQUIRE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT TO ITS MOTION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE LIFTS NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SET...FIRST SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF...MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. SINCE PHILIPPE IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANYWAYS...IT
SHOULD BECOME BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH AND WOULD MOST
LIKELY FOLLOW THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS THEREFORE A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TVCA
CONSENSUS...AND EVEN SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND AT DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 15.9N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 16.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 17.4N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 18.3N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 19.5N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 22.0N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 24.0N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 25.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
and the 2011 curse continues with Philippe...
now down to 45 KTs
what an odd season. 16 storms, only 3 are hurricanes... how's that for hurricane:TS ratio?
now down to 45 KTs
what an odd season. 16 storms, only 3 are hurricanes... how's that for hurricane:TS ratio?
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Well looks can be deceiving I thought it was stronger.
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-
Florida1118
Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Macrocane wrote:Well looks can be deceiving I thought it was stronger.
Hrrrmmm looks like no Cane for him. Which still leaves us at 16/3/2, a percentage of 18.75% hurricanes. Compared to 2009 with 33%, 2010 with 63%...and so forth.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
PHILIPPE HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS MORNING. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE
TO ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE
SHIPS MODEL. THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE TIME OF THE 2304 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR...WHICH
IS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
PHILIPPE...IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVERSELY...THE REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE GAINING STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE LIFTS OUT.
THIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN A BIT TO THE LEFT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT THEN
BYPASS PHILIPPE...CAUSING IT TO TURN NORTHWARD. IN ITS WAKE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ONCE AGAIN...TURNING
PHILIPPE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS...THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 16.1N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.7N 35.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.6N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.7N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 19.9N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.3N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 24.0N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 25.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
PHILIPPE HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS MORNING. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE
TO ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE
SHIPS MODEL. THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE TIME OF THE 2304 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR...WHICH
IS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
PHILIPPE...IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVERSELY...THE REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE GAINING STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE LIFTS OUT.
THIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN A BIT TO THE LEFT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT THEN
BYPASS PHILIPPE...CAUSING IT TO TURN NORTHWARD. IN ITS WAKE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ONCE AGAIN...TURNING
PHILIPPE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS...THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 16.1N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.7N 35.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.6N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.7N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 19.9N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.3N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 24.0N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 25.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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HurricaneWarning92
- Category 2
- Posts: 520
- Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:33 pm
- Location: Pembroke Pines, S. Florida (Lat: 26.00N, Lon: 80.22W)
Models are now all over the place...
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145255
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
...PHILIPPE A LITTLE WEAKER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 35.3W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLEARLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB LEADS TO AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40
KT...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A COL REGION IN THE UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...IN GENERAL THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
TO BE HOSTILE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE.
THE STORM HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/4. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BY DAYS 3 TO 5...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF PHILIPPE. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT
WITH TIME. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE REDUCED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 15.8N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.5N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 18.6N 38.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 19.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.7N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 24.5N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
...PHILIPPE A LITTLE WEAKER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 35.3W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST.
PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLEARLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB LEADS TO AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40
KT...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A COL REGION IN THE UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...IN GENERAL THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
TO BE HOSTILE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE.
THE STORM HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/4. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BY DAYS 3 TO 5...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF PHILIPPE. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT
WITH TIME. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE REDUCED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 15.8N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.5N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 18.6N 38.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 19.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.7N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 24.5N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models
It's interesting how several intensity models are strengthening Philippe into a hurricane in a few days, some of the globals are doing the same too, here are the 12z runs of the intensity models:
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models
Could this become any sort of threat in the future? with the left turn right at the end of the model runs, or will it just end up getting scooped out again by another trough?
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