ATL: TONY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JtSmarts]

Wow, 3rd straight season with 19 named storms.

[Weatherguy173]

this season has exceeded expectations in terms of numbers of storms, except that we had less major hurricanes than projected.

[somethingfunny]

Hmmm

[Cyclenall]

Ahh...I was beginning to wonder when they'd finally upgrade this one!

I was wondering that too, why did it take so long for this one? It looked like a TS for 24 hours before being assigned Tony the Team Tiger.

2012 is now tied with 1887,2010 and 2011 as the 3rd most active hurricane season ever. One more, and will be tied for 2nd.

Its now a 5-way tie as 1995 had 19 names storms. Still, 3 years in a row like that is another wild nugget from the tropics.

Hmmm

Ohhh Boy! A 40 knot TS with a nearly complete eyewall, isn't that neat!?@?@!

[somethingfunny]

Tony looks pretty impressive this morning. An eye?

[Florida1118]

The NHC seem to be under estimating Tony. Looks to be close to HU status from microwave and imagery.

[Extratropical94]

Latest BT:

AL, 19, 2012102412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 467W, 45, 1001, TS

[somethingfunny]

Tony looks like a 65-70mph tropical storm to my untrained eye. It also looks like it's probably peaked already, although when the end comes I think the end will come quickly and there's no signs of that yet:

[Macrocane]

No way this is a 40 kt storm nor 45 kt either, I agree it's at least 55 or even 60 kt tropical storm.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Tony

50 mph, REALLY

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 55 kt to me.

[Extratropical94]

Looks to be about 55 kt to me.

I guess we'll see if that's true in post-season analysis.

[Macrocane]

I'm almost sure it will be stronger in post season analisys

[HurrMark]

Tony the Tiger still roaring...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TONY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 24 2012

...TONY EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 40.3W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[Macrocane]

ROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TONY HAS DETERIORATED SINCE LAST
NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO NEARLY 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THE
TYPICAL BAROCLINIC LEAF...SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
NEARLY COMPLETE. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED UPON A
BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. EVEN STRONGER SHEAR
AND MUCH COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TONY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/20. EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER
OF WESTERLY FLOW...TONY IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON AN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 31.0N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 31.6N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1200Z 32.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 33.2N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Evil Jeremy]

RIP Tony, now post-tropical.

[cycloneye]

RIP Tony, now post-tropical.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
500 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TONY
REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO OVER 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN LOSING
DEFINITION AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SEPARATES FARTHER FROM
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS. GIVEN THE DECAYING STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...TONY IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS
ADVISORY. POST-TROPICAL TONY SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE HEADING OF TONY HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/19. TONY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE BEFORE
LOSING ITS IDENTITY. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO BUT AGAIN SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 31.2N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/0600Z 31.8N 31.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1800Z 32.5N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0600Z 33.2N 25.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[galaxy401]

Any chance with Tony playing a slight role in Sandy's future path? Will it prevent her from moving east?

[brunota2003]

We all love you, Tony! The out to sea, leave everyone alone type! Have a safe trip to the "other" side! I heard they have cookies!