WPAC: LIONROCK - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Now a Category 3 Major Typhoon!

12W LIONROCK 160824 0600 24.8N 132.4E WPAC 100 948

[euro6208]

Latest 00Z GFS is 1mb weaker from 18Z...888mb...and brings an extremely intense typhoon over Tokyo.

[dexterlabio]

ECMWF win.

[stormwise]

2016 typhoon No. 10, relating to information No. 42
2016 August 24 day 16 hour 30 minutes Japan Meteorological Agency forecast section announcement

(heading)
strong typhoon No. 10 is, Minami Daito Island of the South East over the 25 days, accompanied the storm zone
remain in the above, in Daito Island region, is expected to be the storm from the late 25th night. Violence
Please be vigilant in high waves accompanied by wind and swell.

(Text)
[expected to typhoon of the present situation]
strong typhoon No. 10 is, in the southeast of the sometimes Minami Daito Island 24 days 15, 1 hour
we go to the south-west at a speed of approximately 15 km. The center of the atmospheric pressure is 950 Hecht
Pascal, maximum wind speed of 40 meters near the center, the maximum instantaneous wind speed is 60 meters
Le, is within 90 km radius from the center become a wind speed 25 meters or more of the storm
have.
No. 10 is also developing future typhoon, accompanied the storm zone, the Southern over the 25 days
is expected to remain in the southeast sea Higashijima.

[Disaster prevention matters]
<storms, high waves>
in Daito Island provinces, due to the typhoon of development, very strong wind blowing from the late 24th night
-out, is expected to be the storm from the late 25th night. Sea heavy storm accompanied by a swell
has become.

The maximum wind speed (the maximum instantaneous wind speed) that is expected over the 25 days
Daito Island region 25 meters (35 meters)
height of the wave that is expected over the 25 days
Daito Island region 8 meters
is expected of. There is a risk of a ferocious storm in 26 days.

Please be wary of high waves that accompanied the storm and swell.

[Supplemental Information]
and future of typhoon information, warnings and advisories to announce the local meteorological observatory, distillate to weather information, etc.
, please mind. The next "Heisei 28 years typhoon No. 10, information about the (general information)
" is scheduled for 25 days 5 o'clock announcement.

[stormwise]

Scary PINEYE TYPHOON

[stormwise]

Something special brewing here.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/768415859748528128

[Macrocane]

Well, it was about time for another major typhoon to form after the streak of weak systems.
Lionrock surely has had a very interesting lifetime in terms of track and intensity.

[euro6208]

12W LIONROCK 160824 1200 24.4N 131.8E WPAC 100 948

Remains 100 knots...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

202

FXXT03 EGRR 240418



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.08.2016



TYPHOON LIONROCK ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 133.1E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2016 25.3N 133.1E STRONG

12UTC 24.08.2016 24.4N 132.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2016 23.9N 131.9E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.08.2016 23.5N 131.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2016 23.0N 131.5E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.08.2016 23.3N 132.0E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 27.08.2016 23.5N 132.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.08.2016 24.0N 133.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.08.2016 25.0N 135.0E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 28.08.2016 26.5N 137.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 29.08.2016 28.2N 141.1E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2016 29.6N 144.2E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2016 30.6N 147.4E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 144.7E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2016 18.4N 144.7E WEAK

12UTC 24.08.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 240418



[euro6208]

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if the WPAC's Lionrock beats the SPAC's Winston for strongest storm on the planet when he peaked at 160 knots back in February...

The WPAC 99% of the time takes the crown...

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/768451538796711936

[Yellow Evan]

Appears worthy of a T6.0 right now.

[dexterlabio]

What are the odds that Lionrock will hit Japan close to its peak strength?

[znel52]

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if the WPAC's Lionrock beats the SPAC's Winston for strongest storm on the planet when he peaked at 160 knots back in February...

The WPAC 99% of the time takes the crown...

Highly doubt that

[euro6208]

12W LIONROCK 160824 1800 23.9N 131.4E WPAC 110 941

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2016 Time : 201000 UTC
Lat : 23:49:15 N Lon : 131:15:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 949.3mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -49.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 78km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.9 degrees

****************************************************

[NotoSans]

Euro has shifted significantly to the east. Seems to be trending a bit weaker as well. Still it brings a very strong typhoon to the southeastern Japan.

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 242107

A. TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK)

B. 24/2100Z

C. 23.65N

D. 131.25E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HART